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Rent-to-Own Gaining Favor Once Again

Rent-to-own options are becoming popular again after falling out of favor during the last couple of decades when mortgages were easy to get.

The advantages of rent-to-own to buyers include a way around poor credit, an opportunity to rebuild credit worthiness and a way to try out homeownership without making a costly commitment.

For sellers, it offers cash flow from properties that might otherwise just be sitting there.

In some parts of the country, like Florida, rent-to-own arrangements are fairly commonplace, but in other parts of the country developers are only beginning to experiment with this form of purchase.

In the Boston area, Economic Development Financing Corp. (EDFC) and Trinity Financial are two affordable-home developers that have introduced experimental rent-to-own programs. Eric Gedstad, spokesman for MassHousing, a state agency that finances housing construction, says his agency is supportive.

"As the lender, we are gratified that the developer has cash coming in. It makes sense for potential homeowners. The more time that goes by the better the opportunity for someone to repair his credit."

Source: Boston Globe, Robert Preer (08/31/2008)

Where Are Lenders Getting Credit Scores?

Consumers often mistakenly believe that mortgage lenders use only credit scores from Equifax, Experian, TransUnion, and Fair Isaac's myfico.com to gauge creditworthiness.

However, Consumer Reports recently found that lenders also use NextGen FICO scores, FICO Expansion Scores, and Industry Option FICO scores which take car loans into consideration as well as custom formulas.

Given that these credit scores or scoring models are not available to consumers, experts say that consumers should not rely solely on available credit scores to determine their likelihood of getting a loan. They would be wise to make timely bill payments, make more than the minimum payment, hold down credit card balances, and retain old accounts.

Additionally, experts say it might be worth keeping tabls on other credit scores, such as Experian's PLUS scores, which are not yet sold to lenders but could be in the future.

Source: Allentown Morning Call (PA) (09/02/08)

Will Feds new rules stem identity theft?

Five years in the pipeline, 'red-flag' guidelines require financial institutions to watch for fraud. Small businesses with few resources do not welcome the 'burdensome' procedures.

By Bankrate.com

Identity thieves face tough going this year if they think pilfering your personal information will be a stroll through the park. Or at least that's what regulators hope.

This is because new "red-flag" rules aimed at impeding identity thieves are being phased in.

You've never heard of them? Join the crowd.

"There hasn't been a big consumer-education push," says Chris Hoofnagle, a senior fellow with the Berkeley Center for Law & Technology in California. "These rules are not well-known, even among consumer advocates."

Hoofnagle says the information is relatively scarce because the rules stem from a 2003 law that took five years to implement.

"There's been a lot of waiting," he says.

What are red-flag rules?

The rules push financial institutions to make sure people are who they say they are. Authenticating identities will be the name of the game. Red-flag rules stipulate that financial institutions and creditors establish a written program to "detect, prevent and mitigate identity theft in connection with the opening of certain accounts or existing accounts," according to a Federal Trade Commission report (.pdf file).

The rules offer more than two dozen examples of suspicious behavior that financial institutions and creditors should consider warnings.

The presentation of altered documents, a suspicious address change, a fraud alert on a credit report and other unusual account activities are among the red flags.

The idea is to prompt banks and creditors to go into "authentication mode" and determine whether fraudsters are trying to apply for credit in someone else's name or hijack someone else's accounts.

The rules stem from the Fair and Accurate Credit Transactions Act of 2003. Relevant financial institutions have until November to come into full compliance or be subject to penalties.

Proponents say the rules will standardize how credit-issuing entities respond to suspicious activities regarding your accounts.

"These rules for the first time provide a uniform road map for protecting customer information and preventing identity theft," says Sai Huda, the CEO of Compliance Coach, a San Diego company that provides red-flag-compliance software. "Before the rule, there was only an implied obligation on business to protect information."

Now financial institutions and creditors must update their programs periodically to handle new threats as they emerge.

To whom do the rules apply?

The Federal Trade Commission says financial institutions and creditors who "offer or maintain covered accounts" must implement a red-flag program.

So what exactly is a covered account?

"Red-flag rules apply to financial institutions and creditors like banks, credit unions, auto dealers, mortgage brokers, utility companies and telecommunications companies," says Pavneet Singh, an FTC spokeswoman.

Compliance Coach's Huda says you don't necessarily have to be an account holder for the rules to apply to you.

Credit reporting agencies are exempt from the red-flag rules, but at least one, Experian, is getting involved at some level. In February, Experian hosted a Web seminar on the rules and attracted more than 700 clients.

"We tried to make sure that all our existing and prospective clients understood what these red-flag rules meant," says Keir Breitenfeld, a senior product manager with Experian's Fraud & Identity Solutions. "We tried to do that educationally."

How will red-flag rules benefit you?

Red-flag advocates say that banks and creditors with sloppy fraud-prevention programs will eventually be exposed by litigation and negative publicity.

"The public disclosure of identity theft will create more of an onus for these companies to be up to par," Huda says. "Consumers will eventually benefit because of the higher standards."

Hoofnagle says the prospects of the agencies, such as the FTC and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., enforcing the rules combined with possible litigation "will involve some transparency of procedures."

Another added benefit is that employees may be more vigilant in spotting identity fraud.

Anita Marchion, the assistant vice president of regulatory compliance at Navy Federal Credit Union in Virginia, says the training of new recruits has been beefed up to include more focus on identity theft.

She says that the nation's largest credit union will be in compliance by the November deadline and that "members should have a comfort level knowing that we are taking extra steps to protect them from identity fraud."

Hoofnagle has been pushing for a ratings system for banks like the ones that measure vehicle safety. His 2006 study of ID thefts among financial institutions reveals a wide variance in frequency of customer complaints.

"You can go online and look at the crash test of your car and the rollover rating, and all this is available to consumers now," he says. "It wasn't available 40 years ago, but I think we will have a similar situation with banks."

Hoofnagle says the red-flag process is not foolproof. For example, financial institutions need to keep an eye on sales where affiliate marketing agreements come into play. When consumers apply for a credit card or cell phone contract, often the agreement's privacy policy will provide for the company's right to share your information with third-party affiliates that sell products. Hoofnagle believes some commissioned salespeople may have strong incentives to override the red flags.

He is also concerned that some banks may find ways to simply override authentication procedures.

"There has to be some counterweight to that problem," he says.

Heather Grover, a director of product management with Experian's Fraud & Identity Solutions, says there has to be some balance between the consumer's best interest and an organization's need to keep its defenses opaque to thieves.

"Fraudsters are students of their craft, and they'll really game the system as soon as they find the hole," she says.

Who opposes the rules?

The rules give businesses the flexibility to design programs that work best with their respective business models and available resources.

However, some creditors and financial institutions aren't too happy about what they see as the added financial and bureaucratic burden of being required to comply with the rules.

Some smaller institutions have complained that the rules place an unnecessary financial and operational burden on them that they cannot afford. Many may have to hire a third-party company to ensure compliance.

While financial giants may have legions of in-house staffers dedicated to fraud prevention, your local community bank may opt to use a third-party vendor.

The National Automobile Dealers Association supports the government's goal of trying to protect consumers from identity theft, but it also believes the red-flag rules will hurt smaller dealers with limited financial resources.

"We anticipate most dealers will find it challenging to develop and implement a comprehensive identity theft program as required by the red-flag rules," says Paul Metrey, the director of regulatory affairs for the auto dealers group.

Metrey says the program will demand significant time and attention from managers and service providers. He says many provisions of the rules have already been addressed in prior laws, such as the FTC Safeguards Rule and the FTC Privacy Rule.

Not surprisingly, lobbyists for the banking industry also rejected the rules as heavy-handed.

The Illinois Bankers Association, in a statement to the FDIC, called the rules "excessive and overly burdensome."

There may be some reluctance to accept red-flag rules as a best-practice measure, Grover says, but she adds that many businesses will eventually come around when they see the benefits of protecting their customers, as well as a decrease in fraud losses.

The red-flag triggers

The rules are designed to fill the cracks in the system through which identity thieves could fraudulently pilfer the identities of other people for their personal gain.

Six agencies were involved in drafting the rules: the Treasury Department's Office of Thrift Supervision, the Office of Comptroller of the Currency, the FDIC, the FTC, the National Credit Union Administration and the Federal Reserve System. They came up with the following guidelines as examples of red flags. These were gleaned from the Identity Theft Red Flags and Address Discrepancies under the Fair and Accurate Credit Transactions Act of 2003:

  • A fraud alert included with a consumer report.

  • A notice of a credit freeze in response to a request for a consumer report.

  • A consumer reporting agency providing a notice of address discrepancy.

  • Unusual credit activity, such as an increased number of accounts or inquiries.

  • Documents provided for identification appearing altered or forged.

  • A photograph on ID inconsistent with appearance of customer.

  • Information on ID inconsistent with information provided by person opening account.

  • Information on ID, such as signature, inconsistent with information on file at financial institution.

  • An application appearing forged or altered or destroyed and reassembled.
  • Information on ID not matching any address in the consumer report.

 

  • A Social Security number has not been issued or appears on the Social Security Administration's Death Master File, a file of information associated with Social Security numbers of those who are deceased.

 

  • A lack of correlation between the Social Security number range and the date of birth.

 

  • Personal identifying information associated with known fraud activity.

 

  • Suspicious addresses supplied, such as a mail drop or prison, or phone numbers associated with pagers or an answering service.

 

  • A Social Security number provided matching that submitted by another person opening an account or other customers.

 

  • An address or phone number matching that supplied by a large number of applicants.

 

  • The person opening the account unable to supply identifying information in response to notification that the application is incomplete.

 

  • Personal information inconsistent with information already on file at a financial institution or creditor.

 

  • Person opening account or customer unable to correctly answer challenge questions.

 

  • Shortly after a change of address, creditor receiving request for additional users of account.

 

  • Most of available credit used for cash advances, jewelry or electronics, plus customer fails to make first payment.

 

  • A drastic change in payment patterns, use of available credit or spending patterns.

 

  • An account that has been inactive for a lengthy time suddenly exhibiting unusual activity.

 

  • Mail sent to customer repeatedly returned as undeliverable despite continuing transactions on an active account.

 

  • A financial institution or creditor notified that customer is not receiving paper account statements.

 

  • A financial institution or creditor notified of unauthorized charges or transactions on customer's account.

 

  • A financial institution or creditor notified that it has opened a fraudulent account for a person engaged in identity theft.

 

This story was reported and written by Steve Santiago for Bankrate.com.

10 vital money lessons for teens

Do your kids know the difference between wants and needs? Think they're too young to learn about taxes? Or saving for retirement? Oh, you have so much to teach them.

By Bankrate.com

When it comes to financial literacy, today's graduates fail to make the grade.

Asked about basic financial concepts, high school seniors correctly answered only 48% of the questions, on average, down from 52% in 2006, according to the Jump$tart Coalition's recent survey on financial literacy.

College students didn't fare much better, with seniors scoring an average of 65% on a separate survey that was administered for the first time in 2008.

Why do so many miss the mark? It starts in the home. Whether parents lack confidence in their own money-management skills or assume their children's schools will cover it, many parents don't talk about money with their kids, and those who do often miss the fundamentals.

"A lot of the basic stuff is overlooked by parents just because they assume that their kids know it, and they don't," says Janet Bodnar, the author of "Raising Money Smart Kids."

"Why would they? Unless you tell them, there is no reason they would know that your family insurance bill is going up by $1,000 a year just because they start to drive."

Before your kids the nest, boost their financial literacy with these 10 money-management lessons:

Balance a checkbook

Of the high school seniors surveyed, only 45% had a checking account, while 25% had no bank account. Once they leave home and set up accounts on their own, those without parental training often make costly mistakes. About 30% of college students said they had bounced a check.

As soon as a teenager starts earning money from a job, it's time to open a checking account, even if it's a joint account with a parent, says consumer adviser Clark Howard, the author of "Clark Smart Parents, Clark Smart Kids." Teach your teen how to write checks, use a register and reconcile the account with bank statements.

Mistakes will happen, so look for kid-friendly options, such as accounts that charge teens lower overdraft fees. And though Howard refers to them as "piece-of-trash fake Visas" on his radio show, debit cards are a good choice for teenagers, he concedes. Because there's a finite amount of money they can tap, debit cards are like training wheels for credit cards.

Budget money

More than a third of the college students surveyed had paid a credit card bill late, and though some just forgot to pay, others put off writing a check because they ran out of money.

Start teaching your kids how to budget their money as soon as they bring home their first paychecks. With no value judgments, sit down with your children and ask them what they plan to do with their money. Once you know their goals, whether it's buying a car or an iPod, you can talk about what they will need to do to get there.

"Priorities are good because you teach the concept of finiteness," Howard says. "There's only so much money."

Before your children go away to school, have them set up a budget for expenses. It will increase their awareness about money flows, incoming and outgoing. After graduation, show your children how to make a household budget. Using the starting salary of their chosen profession as a guide, have them calculate their after-tax income and then figure out how much they can afford to pay for the basics, such as rent, food, utilities, insurance and transportation, as well as vacations and entertainment.

Finance college

Don't forget to factor student loan payments into the monthly budget. Of the college students surveyed, two-thirds carry some student loan debt, with 70% of those students shouldering $10,000 or more. (See "An insider's guide to student loans.")

To keep your teens from getting in too deep, work the numbers together. Tell them how much you will kick in toward their college expenses, and then help them figure out a plan for covering the rest. If their answer is "student loans," Bankrate's calculator shows the true cost of a loan, which may help your children understand that this is not easy money. FinAid offers a more extensive set of calculators for student loans with varying terms.

Seeing that they'll be on the hook for $575 a month for 10 years if they take out $50,000 in loans may give your children an incentive to look for ways to cut costs. They might consider commuting or attending a state school. (See "How much college debt is too much?")

Establish credit

College loans make up only part of the debt load that students carry after graduation. Because two-thirds of college students surveyed have one or more credit cards and 83% got their first one by the end of their freshman year, it's easy to graduate owing thousands more.

"They hand them out like candy on college campuses," Howard says. "I look at it as part of the freshman-year survival kit: Don't flunk out, don't get arrested, and don't take on debt." (See "Confessions of a credit card pusher.")

Identify wants versus needs

Some teenagers think of credit cards as free money, so remind them that when they charge something, they're taking out a loan that must be repaid. They should use credit cards only to meet their needs, not their wants. Some 11% of high schoolers surveyed said it's OK to borrow against future income to go on vacation or buy sale-priced clothing. (See "Needs vs. wants? Listen closely to your elders.")

"Kids need to understand the many factors you consider when you make a financial decision," says Brette McWhorter Sember, the author of "The Everything Kids' Money Book."

"It just looks too easy to a child when you make the purchase. They don't see all the thinking you've done to get you to the point where you do whip out the plastic," Sember says. (See "Taking charge of your credit cards.")

Although Howard advises against freshmen or sophomores having credit cards, he does encourage college students to apply for two cards during their junior or senior year. "It's the only time in your life that someone will give you credit with no proof of income and no credit history," Howard says.

Deal with debt

Whether college students racked up debt buying pizza and beer or charging car repairs, a third of those surveyed had an outstanding balance of $1,000 or more on their credit cards, and half said they carried a balance some or all of the time.

Though paying the minimum looks like the easy way out, you might be surprised to learn the true cost of debt. It could take more than 20 years and more than $4,000 in interest to pay off a $3,000 credit card balance with an 18% interest rate if a debtor paid only the minimum.

"It's a real eye-opener," says Bodnar, who is also the author of Kiplinger's Money-Smart Kids column. "It does a lot more than even lecturing kids on credit, because they might forget the lecture, but they will remember this."

Pay taxes

Of the college students surveyed, only a third had prepared their own taxes, leaving the vast majority ignorant of the basics. A mere 39% knew that interest earned from a savings account is taxable, while fewer than half understood that when your salary doubles, your taxes also double, at least.

Starting with the first paycheck, sit down with teens and explain what's on the stub, showing them where their money goes. To estimate withholding on a higher salary, use the 25% rule: 10% for federal taxes, 10% for Social Security and Medicare, and 5% for state taxes.

When it's time to file a tax return, don't do it for them. Teach them the ins and outs of the system by making them an active part of the process, from tracking down receipts and W-2s to doing the calculations. (See "Your 15-point tax-return checklist.")

Consider all costs

For many teens, buying a car is their first major investment. But few understand the true cost of ownership, and they often leave expenses such as maintenance, repairs, gas and insurance out of their savings plans.

Even if you're planning to cover most of the costs so that they can focus on school (see "Should you buy your kid a car?"), break down all of the expenses, from how much the family's insurance premium increases when they're added to the policy as drivers to the cost of new tires. And make them responsible for paying a portion of the expenses, especially gas.

"It's a great budgeting tool," says Bodnar, whose son, a college student, has bought his own gas since high school. "It's an incentive for him to get his summer job, and it's an incentive to hold down the cost as much as he can."

While kids who rely on the family gas card don't blink twice when it costs $80 to fill up the tank, Bodnar's son is keenly aware of the price of a gallon, and he buys his gas from a station that offers a discount to people paying with cash.

Save for the future

Teens see the value in saving for a car, but few have the ability to see 30 years down the road. Although 80% of college students surveyed had savings accounts, most said they lacked adequate savings, with 60% saying they had slightly less or much less set aside than they should at this phase in life. Only 7% had any form of retirement account.

To motivate kids to save for the future, use a compound interest calculator to show them the "miracle of compounding," says Neale Godfrey, the author of "Money Doesn't Grow on Trees." "The miracle works to your detriment with debt but in your favor if you're saving money."

Once your teens start working, have them open Roth individual retirement accounts. As an added incentive, Howard matches his daughter's contributions dollar for dollar. To add even more diversity to the portfolio, Godfrey advises young adults to buy and hold stock in the companies that make the products they use every day.

Stretch a dollar

Even young children can learn the value of a dollar.

"Don't make money the biggest secret in the household," Godfrey says. "Get them engaged in the process."

Give young kids an allowance and make them responsible for some of their expenses so they learn how to set priorities and manage their money. Interactive Web sites like Kablinga specialize in teaching youngsters the value of money in a fun way. Teens with part-time jobs should pitch in, too, saving money for college or for senior-year expenses such as a prom outfit and a class ring.

When it's time for back-to-school shopping, set a realistic budget and involve your kids in the buying process. Teach them how to shop the sales and find deals on trendy clothes at consignment shops. If they come in under budget, let them keep 100% of the difference.

"Kids will spend unlimited amounts of money as long as it is yours," Bodnar says, "but when their money is on the line, it is a whole new ballgame."

This article was reported and written by Jennifer Maciejewski for Bankrate.com.

The Federal Reserve Board eagle logo links to home page

Beige Book logo
2008

Summary of Commentary on
Current Economic Conditions
by Federal Reserve District

Commonly known as the Beige Book, this report is published eight times per year. Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions in its District through reports from Bank and Branch directors and interviews with key business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources. The Beige Book summarizes this information by District and sector. An overall summary of the twelve district reports is prepared by a designated Federal Reserve Bank on a rotating basis.

2008
January

16

Report

February


March

5

HTML

286 KB PDF


April

16

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182 KB PDF


May


June

11

HTML

144 KB PDF


July

23

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261 KB PDF


August


September

3

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164 KB PDF


October

15



November


December

3



 

 

2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996
1970 - present (on the web site of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)

Housing Assistance Tax Act of 2008

September 3, 2008

 

The single largest provision in the $15.1 billion package of housing tax incentives in the recently enacted Housing Assistance Tax Act of 2008 (the “Housing Act”) is a measure allowing individuals buying their first home to take a tax credit of up to $7,500 of the purchase price. Qualified homebuyers can subtract the credit amount from their federal income tax when they buy a home and even get a refund if the credit exceeds the tax. However, they are then required to pay the credit back over 15 years. The result is that the credit resembles an interest-free loan that must be repaid to the government. Here are the details of the new credit:

  • The home must be located in the U.S. and must be the taxpayer’s principal residence (main home). The taxpayer (and the taxpayer’s spouse if married) must not have owned another principal residence in the U.S. in the three-year period before purchasing the new home. Thus, the home doesn’t literally have to be the taxpayer’s first home.
  • The home must have been purchased from April 9, 2008 through June 30, 2009, inclusive. Purchases from certain related persons and acquisitions by gift or inheritance don’t qualify. A home constructed by the taxpayer does qualify if the taxpayer moves in from April 9, 2008 through June 30, 2009.
  • A special rule allows taxpayers who purchase a principal residence in the first six months of 2009 to treat the purchase as if made on Dec. 31, 2008. This allows the taxpayer to claim the credit for 2008 rather than 2009.
  • The credit is equal to 10% of the price paid for the home, up to a maximum of $7,500. The $7,500 maximum credit applies both to individuals and married couples filing a joint return. A married individual filing separately can claim a maximum credit of $3,750.
  • The credit is phased out for individual taxpayers with modified adjusted gross income (AGI) between $75,000 and $95,000 ($150,000 and $170,000 for joint filers) for the year of purchase. Taxpayers with modified AGI over $95,000 ($170,000 for joint filers) can’t claim the credit.
  • The credit is refundable, meaning that households with incomes too low to owe income tax can benefit from it.
  • In the second year after purchase, taxpayers who took the credit must start paying back the credit in equal installments over 15 years, with no interest charge. This works as follows. Suppose a first-time homebuyer purchases a home for $100,000 this coming December and claims the maximum credit of $7,500 on his 2008 tax return. He would then be required to pay back $500 (one-fifteenth of the credit) on his tax return for 2010 and for each of the following 14 years, through 2024.
  • If the taxpayer sells the home (or the home ceases to be the principal residence of the taxpayer or the taxpayer’s spouse) before complete repayment of the credit, any remaining credit is due on the tax return for the year in which the home is sold (or ceases to be the principal residence). If the home was sold at a loss to an unrelated person, repayment of the remaining credit is forgiven to the extent of the loss.
  • No credit is allowed if: the taxpayer was ever entitled to a D.C. homebuyer credit; the home purchase was financed through tax-exempt mortgage revenue bonds; the taxpayer is a nonresident alien; or the taxpayer disposes of the residence (or it ceases to be a principal residence) in the year of purchase.
Population Boom Will Drive Real Estate Industries

When the Census Bureau released population projections last month, more attention was paid to the country's changing racial composition than to the massive scope of the increase. What's clear is that the latest numbers will inevitably give the real estate business a boost.

The Census Bureau is projecting an increase of 135 million people in the U.S, a 44 percent rise, by 2050. That’s equivalent to the entire populations of Mexico and Canada moving to the United States.

The bureau estimates that this population boom, largely fueled by immigration, will require 52 million new housing units, along with more places for people to shop and work.

Source: The Washington Post, Steven A Camarota (08/31/2008)

Mortgage Applications Rise for Second Week

Mortgage applications rose last week for the second week in a row. They increased 7.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis to 453.1 from 421.6 the previous week.

On an unadjusted basis, the index increased 5.8 percent compared with the previous week and was down 27 percent compared with the same week a year ago.

The refinance index rose 2.1 percent and the purchase index was up 10.5 percent. The increases coincided with a decline in mortgage rates.
  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 6.39 percent from 6.44 percent
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 5.96 percent from 5.94 percent
  • 1-year ARMs decreased to 7.11 percent from 7.15 percent

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association (09/03/2008)

Make big bucks from a rising dollar

The world of exchange-traded funds abounds with investments that can help you profit from the greenback's sudden rebound.

By Tim Middleton

The U.S. dollar is soaring in value, and investors who are playing the move are raking in huge gains.

Since lows of early spring, the dollar has gained 8.7% against the euro, 9.1% against the British pound sterling and 12.9% against the Japanese yen.

Aggressive investors can do much better. The Market Vectors Double Short Euro ETN (DRR, news, msgs), for example, has spurted 14.3% in the month ended Aug. 26, making it the third-best-performing exchange-traded fund in the MSN Money database.

The second-best performer, UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU, news, msgs), surged 14.6% in the same period, with almost all of the gain due to weaker foreign currencies. The top performer, PowerShares DB Gold Double Short ETN (DZZ, news, msgs), powered up 24.6% as traders dumped gold for the currency it is known to hedge, the greenback.

The dollar is still down longer term -- 40% against the euro, for example. But that means that if you believe as I do that the trend has reversed, there's a lot of room for the dollar to move up -- and for investors to cash in.

Further gains seem likely. While the United States clings to positive growth -- revised to a gain of 3.3% in the second quarter -- Germany, the biggest euro-zone economy, suffered negative growth in the same quarter, and Great Britain is not far behind.

The biggest threat to U.S. growth, meanwhile, has abated as commodity prices have tumbled -- for us much more than for the rest of the world. Like gold, oil and grains are widely seen as beneficiaries of dollar weakness; their prices rise when the dollar falls, and those prices are the dollar's victims when it strengthens.

The world's largest economy, our own, will get the lion's share of the cost savings that come with cheaper raw materials.

Half a dozen ETFs offer particular potential for exploiting the dollar's sudden strength. One or more of them could help erase some of the considerable losses we investors have experienced throughout our portfolios over the past year or two.

Dollar's rise takes toll overseas

Almost universally and, in one case, surprisingly, overseas stocks have taken a beating with the dollar's rise.

The mighty Chinese renminbi -- whose value is arbitrarily set by the government, not traders -- has resisted the currency trend, rising 6.8% against the dollar this year, as of last week. But international investors have shrugged off the renminbi's manipulation and sold Chinese stocks along with other foreign equities.

In the past month, iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (FXI, news, msgs) is down 7.8%. SPDR S&P 500 (SPY, news, msgs), the investable form of the index traded on the U.S. stock market, is actually ahead 1.6%.

iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA, news, msgs), which represents foreign developed markets, is down 6.8% in the past month. UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares, which I mentioned above, tracks the same index but is a leverage fund designed to go up twice as much as the EAFE index goes down.

I recently advised subscribers to my newsletter, ETF Insider, to buy the UltraShort EAFE fund, and I intend to buy it myself three days after this column appears, in accordance with MSN Money policy.

As the trend turns

Currency trends can be lengthy affairs. The euro's gain against the dollar between 2001 and this year reversed a decline of similar magnitude in the prior seven years.

As I explained in a column two weeks ago, foreign developed-market stocks have gotten all their gains in this decade from the dollar's weakness. When the buck turns bullish, those stocks become an albatross for U.S. investors.

Playing this trend as an investor could involve dabbling in some new areas.

Market Vectors Double Short Euro ETN, for example, is another leveraged fund that tries to double the numbers of the index it tracks. And the "ETN" in the name stands for exchange-traded note. Whereas ETFs own securities, including futures and options, ETNs amount to a bank-guaranteed return based on an index.

For this reason, ETNs are subject to the risk that the credit rating of the issuing bank will turn sour. Last year, when Bear Stearns collapsed, an ETN tied to it, BearLinx Alerian MLP Select Index ETN (BSR, news, msgs), was briefly buffeted in trading. It recovered as Bear Stearns was bailed out through public and private intervention.

PowerShares DB Gold Double Short ETN, similarly, represents bank debt rather than physical securities. But even amid today's financial meltdown ETNs have held up well.

There are at least three other ways to play a burgeoning buck:

  • PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP, news, msgs), ahead 5.9% in the past month, invests in futures tied to the dollar's performance against the big three foreign currencies, plus the Canadian dollar, the Swedish krona and the Swiss franc.

  • PowerShares DB Commodity Double Short ETN (DEE, news, msgs), ahead 11%, is a leveraged bet against crude oil, heating oil, gold, aluminum, corn and wheat. Nearly all commodities trade in U.S. dollars, and the global bull market in commodities in recent years was fueled partly by the greenback's weakness.

  • Ultra S&P Small Cap 600 ProShares (SAA, news, msgs), up 3.9%, is a leveraged vote for small companies, which depend far less than giant firms on foreign sales. A rising dollar actually hurts multinational companies, whose products become less competitive at the same time the value of their foreign earnings declines.

The trouble with currency trading

All of these pro-dollar investments are likely to be much more volatile than the stuff most of us own in our brokerage and retirement accounts. The simplest way to take advantage of the dollar's advance is to cut back on foreign developed-market stock funds and bulk up on small-cap and midcap funds.

One of the most pleasant prospects of a rising dollar is that foreign travel will become more affordable. When my wife and I were in London some months ago, we remarked that many, many prices were identical to those in New York City -- except they were denominated in pounds, which cost us $2 each.

Accordingly, I did not pick up that Savile Row suit that is on my perpetual wish list. I reasoned its price would come down some day. Already the sale is beginning.

At the time of publication, Tim Middleton did not own any securities mentioned in this article.

Crude prices continue to slide

Oil falls for a fourth day, but investors found little relief as economic jitters remained in the marketplace. A report on factory orders is better than economists had expected. Apple hints at new product releases.

By Charley Blaine and Elizabeth Strott

The sell-off in crude oil continued today as concerns about global demand overshadowed any worries about approaching tropical storms and hurricanes.

Crude was down $1.23 to $108.48 a barrel after a $5.75 drop on Tuesday. "Weakening global demand appears to be the key factor pulling down crude oil prices (although the surge in the dollar is helping as well)," Michael Darda, chief economist at trading and research firm MKM Partners, wrote in a note to clients this morning.

Stocks turned sharply lower by midday, despite oil's decline. At 12:50 p.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 64 points to 11,453. The Dow had given up a 250-point gain on Tuesday to close down 27 points. This afternoon, the Nasdaq Composite Index was down 21 points to 2,328, and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index had shed 11 points to 1,266.

Darda was cautious about cheering oil's decline too much. "It would probably be an error to assume falling crude oil will rescue the U.S. consumer," he wrote, adding: "Energy expenditures account for just over 4% of total U.S. consumer expenditures, whereas labor compensation accounts for 80% -- meaning the labor market is 20 times as important to the outlook for spending."

The calm after the storm

Oil's decline came as worries about Hurricane Gustav's impact on the Gulf coast dissipated Tuesday. The storm had been downgraded to a tropical depression, and little damage was reported on the oil and natural gas rigs in the Gulf of Mexico.

"Damage was done to the markets more than it seems to have been done to U.S. Gulf energy infrastructure," Peter Beutel, an energy analyst at Cameron Hanover, wrote in a note to clients.

Beutel pointed out that the production loss that followed evacuation of the rigs didn't faze the markets. "Had that happened in late June or the first days of July, prices would have spiked dramatically higher," he said.

Beutel expects oil prices to retreat to between $69 and $80.

Weather forecasters are now watching four new storms -- Hanna, Ike, Josephine and Karina -- as hurricane season kicks into high gear this month.

Ospraie closes flagship fund

Hedge fund Ospraie Management is closing its flagship commodity fund, the company announced this morning.

The fund has lost 40% of its value so far this year, including a 27% loss in August after oil prices fell more than 10% in the same period.

"The losses were primarily caused by a substantial sell-off in a number of our energy, mining and resource equity holdings during a six-week period characterized by some of the sharpest declines in these sectors in the past ten to twenty years," fund manager Dwight Anderson wrote in a letter to investors. "After nine years of striving to be a good steward of your capital, I am very sorry for this outcome," Anderson wrote.

Lehman Bros. (LEH, news, msgs) bought a 20% stake in the Ospraie Fund in 2005.

Mixed news on factory orders, unemployment

The markets got some upbeat economic news from a factory-orders report this morning.

Orders grew at 1.3% in July, the Commerce Department reported this morning -- better than the 0.4% increase economists were expecting. Factory orders for June were revised higher to 2.1% from a previously reported 1.7% gain.

The report was "yet another sign that the manufacturing sector is faring better than one might expect in the midst of a deep recession in housing," Nomura Chief Economist David Resler wrote in a note this morning. "While some of the gain may reflect higher prices (e.g., steel, petroleum, food, and other basic commodities), the growth in demand for manufactured goods is an encouraging sign that the industrial sector is continuing to provide support for overall economic growth."

Meanwhile, consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas offered some mixed data about the unemployment picture. The firm's monthly report showed that employers have announced 667,996 job cuts in 2008 so far, a 29% increase from the 2007-to-date total of 515,855. Things brightened in August, however, with employers announcing 14% fewer planned job cuts in August from July.

The government will release its August jobs report on Friday, before the opening bell. Economists expect an eighth straight month of job losses.

Later today, the Federal Reserve will release its "beige book," an anecdotal gauge of economic conditions around the country.

And investors can tune in to automakers' sales numbers. Ford Motor (F, news, msgs) said August U.S. sales fell nearly 25% to 155,690 vehicles, worse than analysts had expected. Ford said the second-half of the year will be more difficult than the first half. General Motors (GM, news, msgs) will report its sales figures later today.

Corning, Staples struggle

Corning (GLW, news, msgs) lowered its third-quarter sales and earnings forecast this morning, which sent the stock falling $1.98, or 10.1%, to $17.42 by midday.

Stock Charts (Year)

Corning
Graphical chart for GLW
Staples
Graphical chart for SPLS

Citing slowing shipments of glass used in liquid crystal display televisions, Corning said earnings will fall between 43 cents and 45 cents per share; sales will range between $1.58 billion and $1.62 billion.

Analysts expect 49 cents per share on $1.7 billion in sales.

Staples (SPLS, news, msgs) this morning reported a 16% drop in fiscal-second-quarter profit as companies pulled back on spending.

The office-supply retailer said net income came in at $150.2 million, or 21 cents per share, matching analysts' expectations, and the company reiterated its 2008 profit guidance for low-single-digit growth.

Shares of Staples managed to move higher, rising 18 cents to $24.95 by midday.

Coca-Cola taps China

Coca-Cola (KO, news, msgs) this morning said it offered $2.5 billion to buy Chinese juice maker China Huiyuan Juice Group.

If the deal goes through, it would be the biggest acquisition of a Chinese-controlled company by a foreign one, according to data from Thompson Reuters. The deal would help Coke expand its Chinese product line beyond carbonated beverages.

Coca-Cola also announced a $1 billion share buyback.

The stock was down 22 cents to $51.74 in midday trading.

Apple announces mystery event

Next week is going to be a big week for Apple (AAPL, news, msgs) lovers.

The company late Tuesday sent out an invitation to an event called "Let's Rock." Analysts expect Apple to introduce newer versions of its popular iPhone and iPod devices.

Gene Munster, an analyst with Piper Jaffray, told clients the product announcements will be key to Apple's holiday season.

"We just thought it was going to be an updated version of the iPod Touch, but they may have something even more interesting to show," Munster said.

Apple debuted its iPhone and iPod at events that were similarly secretive.

Shares of Apple were down $1.07 to $165.15 this afternoon.