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Home Resources

September 2007 Entries

What does the term REALTOR®  mean?

REALTOR® is a registered trade name that may only be used by members of the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®, an organization with over 1,300,000 members who represent all branches of the real estate industry. REALTORS® subscribe to a strict Code of Ethics which governs their conduct.

This professional is committed to protecting and promoting private ownership of real property, establishing and maintaining high professional standards of practice, and creating unity in the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® organization and respect for the real estate profession.

If you are looking for professional real estate advice there is no substitute for a REALTOR®.  Make sure your representative is a REALTOR® member of the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.


Things to Avoid Before Purchasing a Home

No Major Purchase of Any Kind

Review the article title "Don’t Buy a Car," and apply it to any major purchase that would create debt of any kind. This includes furniture, appliances, electronic equipment, jewelry, vacations, expensive weddings……and automobiles, of course. 

Don't Buy a Car                                                                                                       

When an individual’s income starts growing and they manage to set aside some savings, they commonly experience what may be considered an innate instinct of modern civilized mankind.

The desire to spend money.

Since North Americans have a special love affair with the automobile, this becomes a high priority item on the shopping list. Later, other things will be added and one of those will probably be a house.

However, by the time home ownership has become more than a distant and hopeful dream, you may have already bought the car.

It happens all the time, sometimes just before you contact a lender to get pre-qualified for a mortgage.

As part of the interview, you may tell the loan officer your price target. He will ask about your income, your savings and your debts, then give you his opinion. "If only you didn’t have this car payment," he might begin, "you would certainly qualify for a home loan to buy that house."

Debt-to-Income Ratios and Car Payments

When determining your ability to qualify for a mortgage, a lender looks at what is called your "debt-to-income" ratio. A debt-to-income ratio is the percentage of your gross monthly income (before taxes) that you spend on debt. This will include your monthly housing costs, including principal, interest, taxes, insurance, and homeowner’s association fees, if any. It will also include your monthly consumer debt, including credit cards, student loans, installment debt, and….

…car payments.

How a New Car Payment Reduces Your Purchase Price

Suppose you earn $5000 a month and you have a car payment of $400. At current interest rates (approximately 8% on a thirty-year fixed rate loan), you would qualify for approximately $55,000 less than if you did not have the car payment.

Even if you feel you can afford the car payment, mortgage companies approve your mortgage based on their guidelines, not yours. Do not get discouraged, however. You should still take the time to get pre-qualified by a lender.

However, if you have not already bought a car, remember one thing. Whenever the thought of buying a car enters your mind, think ahead. Think about buying a home first. Buying a home is a much more important purchase when considering your future financial well being.

When in question, ask your Lender or Real Estate Agent if purchasing a big ticket item will limit your loan chances before you make that purchasing decision.


      Things to Avoid Before Purchasing a Home

The Effect of Changing Jobs

For most people, changing employers will not really affect your ability to qualify for a mortgage loan, especially if you are going to be earning more money.  For some homebuyers, however, the effects of changing jobs can be disastrous to your loan application.

How Changing Jobs Affects Buying a Home

Salaried Employees

If you are a salaried employee who does not earn additional income from commissions, bonuses, or over-time, switching employers should not create a problem. Just make sure to remain in the same line of work.  Hopefully, you will be earning a higher salary, which will help you better qualify for a mortgage.

Hourly Employees

If your income is based on hourly wages and you work a straight forty hours a week without over-time, changing jobs should not create any problems.

Commissioned Employees

If a substantial portion of your income is derived from commissions, you should not change jobs before buying a home. This has to do with how mortgage lenders calculate your income. They average your commissions over the last two years.

Changing employers creates an uncertainty about your future earnings from commissions. There is no track record from which to produce an average. Even if you are selling the same type of product with essentially the same commission structure, the underwriter cannot be certain that past earnings will accurately reflect future earnings.

Changing jobs would negatively impact your ability to buy a home.

Bonuses

If a substantial portion of your income on the new job will come from bonuses, you may want to consider delaying an employment change. Mortgage lenders will rarely consider future bonuses as income unless you have been on the same job for two years and have a track record of receiving those bonuses. Then they will average your bonuses over the last two years in calculating your income.

Changing employers means that you do not have the two-year track record necessary to count bonuses as income.

Part-Time Employees

If you earn an hourly income but rarely work forty hours a week, you should not change jobs. There would be no way to tell how many hours you will work each week on the new job, so no way to accurately calculate your income. If you remain on the old job, the lender can just average your earnings.

Over-Time

Since all employers award overtime hours differently, your overtime income cannot be determined if you change jobs. If you stay on your present job, your lender will give you credit for overtime income. They will determine your overtime earnings over the last two years, then calculate a monthly average.

Self-Employment

If you are considering a change to self-employment before buying a new home, don’t do it. Buy the home first.

Lenders like to see a two-year track record of self-employment income when approving a loan. Plus, self-employed individuals tend to include a lot of expenses on the Schedule C of their tax returns, especially in the early years of self-employment. While this minimizes your tax obligation to the IRS, it also minimizes your income to qualify for a home loan.

If you are considering changing your business from a sole proprietorship to a partnership or corporation, you should also delay that until you purchase your new home.


Things to Avoid Before Purchasing a Home

Don’t Move Money Around

When a lender reviews your loan package for approval, one of the things they are concerned about is the source of funds for your down payment and closing costs. Most likely, you will be asked to provide statements for the last two or three months on any of your liquid assets. This includes checking accounts, savings accounts, money market funds, certificates of deposit, stock statements, mutual funds, and even your company 401K and retirement accounts.

If you have been moving money between accounts during that time, there may be large deposits and withdrawals in some of them.

The mortgage underwriter (the person who actually approves your loan) will probably require a complete paper trail of all the withdrawals and deposits. You may be required to produce cancelled checks, deposit receipts, and other seemingly inconsequential data, which could get quite tedious.

Perhaps you become exasperated at your lender, but they are only doing their job correctly. To ensure quality control and eliminate potential fraud, it is a requirement on most loans to completely document the source of all funds. Moving your money around, even if you are consolidating your funds to make it "easier," could make it more difficult for the lender to properly document.

So leave your money where it is until you talk to a loan officer.

Oh…don’t change banks, either.


11 Ways to Easily Boost Your Curb Appeal in a Weekend

If you're selling your home soon, ensure that prospective buyers will want to come inside by sprucing up the exterior before they drive by. And surprisingly, it doesn't have to be a time-consuming ordeal. Here are some easy improvements you can make to boost your home's curb appeal - all in just one weekend.

1. Paint or stain your front door. You probably won't even have to take it off the hinges. Installing a metal kick plate is another inexpensive way to freshen your entrance - it will cover years of wear.

2. Polish door hardware. Consider replacing the hardware if it's really worn or flaking. Don't forget the doorbell and lighting fixtures.

3. Replace worn welcome mats. A new welcome mat in a cheery complementary color can boost the front entrance welcome factor.

4. Install outdoor lighting. Consider solar garden lights to line a walkway, or a bright new porch light. This will make your home look more inviting in the evening when most buyers have the time to drive by.

5. Kill mold and mildew. Use a pressure washer to easily blast the siding, roof, deck and driveway clean.

6. Mow the lawn. Trim around flowerbeds and other stationary objects. Make sure your lawnmower's blades are sharp for a clean cut.

7. Get rid of weeds. Replace them with blooming flowers and add new bark or gravel for a fresh look.

8. Trim shrubs and tree branches. Cutting overgrown shrubs can open up your home's exterior. Be sure branches aren't creeping onto the roof. Show off appealing architectural elements by trimming around columns and windows.

9. Add a hanging flower basket. Install a stylish but discreet hook on your front porch and add an inexpensive hanging plant.

10. Clean gutters. If the downspout is badly damaged, consider replacing it with a decorative rain chain, which allows water to run down ornamental funnels into the ground drain.

11. Clean windows. Use an industrial cleaner to make your windows sparkle from across the street. Don't forget to wash the screens.

You don't get a second chance to make a first impression. Spending just one weekend to prepare your house for the market can pay off big in a big way. A great first impression can mean the difference between a quick sale versus having your home sit on the market for months.

Ask About Real Estate.net provides top real estate professionals, such as:  Real Estate Agents, Lenders, Home Inspectors, Appraisers, Title Companies, and much more.

For real estate advice from an expert check out www.askaboutrealestate.net


 More Space

Both indoors and outdoors, you will probably have more space if you own your own home. Even moving to a condominium from an apartment, you are likely to find you have much more room available – your own laundry and storage area, and bigger rooms. Apartment complexes are more interested in creating the maximum number of income-producing units than they are in creating space for each of the tenants.

If you are moving to a home for the first time, you are going to be very pleased with all the new space you have available. You may have to even buy more "stuff."

Get started today looking into your own home ownership by requesting professional real estate services at www.askaboutrealestate.net.

 


Freedom & Individualism

When you rent, you are normally limited on what you can do to improve your home. You have to get permission to make certain types of improvements. Nor does it make sense to spend thousand of dollars painting, putting in carpet, tile or window coverings when the main person who benefits is the landlord and not you.

Since your landlord wants to keep his expenses to a minimum, he or she will probably not be spending much to improve the place, either.

When you own a home, however, you can do pretty much whatever you want. You get the benefits of any improvements you make, plus you get to live in an environment you have created, not some faceless landlord.

What inprovements give you the most return of your investment?                                  Contact your local Real Estate Agent or Interior Designer to determine what improvement plans you should be considering to give you the most enjoyment and return of investment.

Need to find that local Real Estate Agent or Interior Designer?                                             Just request the services from a Top Real Estate Professional at www.askaboutrealestate.net.


 Forced Savings

Face it, some people are just lousy at saving money, and a house is an automatic savings account. You accumulate savings in two ways. Every month, a portion of your payment goes toward the principal. Admittedly, in the early years of the mortgage, this is not much. Over time, however, it accelerates.

Second, your home appreciates. Average appreciation on a home is approximately five percent, though it will vary from year to year, and in some years may even depreciate.. Over time, history has shown that owning a home is one of the very best financial investments.

What about today's market?                                                                                                            

Even with a slight downturn in real estate opportunities are everywhere.  Owning your own home is still the best investement you can have, and when real estate rebounds, as it always does, your home, once again, will be your best friend, strongest and safest investment.

Home ownership is where it is at!


  Stable Monthly Housing Costs

When you rent a place to live, you can certainly expect your rent to increase each year – or even more often. If you get a fixed rate mortgage when you buy a home, you have the same monthly payment amount for thirty years. Even if you get an adjustable rate mortgage, your payment will stay within a certain range for the entire life of the mortgage – and interest rates aren’t as volatile now as they were in the late seventies and early eighties.

Imagine how much rent might be ten, fifteen, or even thirty years from now? Which makes more sense? 

If home ownership is for you request services from one of our TOP Real Estate Professionals at www.askaboutrealestate.net


Income Tax Savings

Because of income tax deductions, the government is basically subsidizing your purchase of a home. All of the interest and property taxes you pay in a given year can be deducted from your gross income to reduce your taxable income.

For example, assume your initial loan balance is $150,000 with an interest rate of eight percent. During the first year you would pay $9969.27 in interest. If your first payment is January 1st, your taxable income would be almost $10,000 less – due to the IRS interest rate deduction.

Property taxes are deductible, too. Whatever property taxes you pay in a given year may also be deducted from your gross income, lowering your tax obligation.

Home ownership has many benefits. 

Check with your Real Estate Agent and Lender to see if owning a home is a good goal for your future!


The Benefits of Owning Your Own Home

Your best investment . . .As a fairly general rule, homes appreciate about five percent a year. Some years will be more, some less. The figure will vary from neighborhood to neighborhood, and region to region.

 

Five percent may not seem like that much at first. Stocks (at times) appreciate much more, and you could earn over six percent with the safest investment of all, treasury bonds.

But take a second look…

Presumably, if you bought a $200,000 house, you did not pay cash for the home. You got a mortgage, too. Suppose you put as much as twenty percent down – that would be an investment of $40,000.

At an appreciation rate of 5% annually, a $200,000 home would increase in value $10,000 during the first year. That means you earned $10,000 with an investment of $40,000. Your annual "return on investment" would be a whopping twenty-five percent.

Of course, you are making mortgage payments and paying property taxes, along with a couple of other costs. However, since the interest on your mortgage and your property taxes are both tax deductible, the government is essentially subsidizing your home purchase.

Your rate of return when buying a home is higher than most any other investment you could make.

If you are moving to a home for the first time, you are going to be very pleased with all the new space you have available. You may have to even buy more "stuff."


Are You Self-Employed?

You are self-employed if any of the following apply to you.
  • You carry on a trade or business as a sole proprietor or an independent contractor.
  • You are a member of a partnership that carries on a trade or business.
  • You are otherwise in business for yourself.

Trade or business
A trade or business is generally an activity carried on for a source of revenue, or in good faith, to make a profit. The regularity of activities and/or transactions and the generation of income are important factors. You do not need to actually make a profit to be in a trade or business merely that you have a profit motive. However, you do need to make continuing efforts to further the interests of your business.
Part-time business
You do not have to carry on regular full-time business activities to be self-employed. Having a part-time business in addition to your regular job or business may also be self-employment.
Independent contractor
People such as consultants, doctors, veterinarians, lawyers, accountants, contractors and artists who are in an independent trade, business, or profession in which they offer their services to the general public are generally independent contractors. The general IRS rule is that an individual is an independent contractor if the payer has the right to control or direct only the result of the work and not what will be done and how it will be done. The earnings of a person who is working as an independent contractor are subject to self-employment (SE) tax.
You are not an independent contractor if you perform services that can be controlled by an employer (what will be done and how it will be done). This applies even if you are given freedom of action. What matters is that the employer has the legal right to control the details of how the services are performed.
If an employer-employee relationship exists (regardless of what the relationship is called), you are not an independent contractor and your earnings are generally not subject to SE tax.



REALTORS® Make a Difference in Your Community

REALTORS® not only help make the dream of homeownership a reality, they also help build better communities. In small towns and large cities across the globe, REALTORS® help shape and promote community values, giving their time and effort to noble causes. The initiatives highlighted offer examples of how REALTORS® and the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® are working to strengthen community bonds.


The Face of U.S. Currency

Have you ever inspected the money in your pocket — not just a quick glance to see if it's a $20 bill, but a good hard look at what's printed on it?

Virtually all currency in circulation is in the form of Federal Reserve notes, that is bills printed by the Bureau of Engraving and Printing of the Department of Treasury and issued by the Federal Reserve Banks. In this unit we'll first study the “face” of the bill—the side with the portrait. Later, you'll see the opposite side.

Making the Money
Federal Reserve notes are printed by the U.S. Bureau of Engraving and Printing at facilities in Washington, D.C., and Fort Worth, Texas. Bills printed in Fort Worth have the small letters “FW” in the lower right hand corner, to the immediate left of the plate serial number.

 

photo of legal statement   Legal Statement
This phrase is essential and appears on every bill. It ensures the bill can be used to repay debts and provide a standard to measure what is owed.

 

photo of signature   Signature
All currency is signed by the Secretary of the Treasury and the Treasurer of the United States. The people in these positions change, so not every bill has the same name on it. Look at a bill you have in your pocket. Whose names are on it?

 

Series
(See picture above) The series marks the year in which the design of a bill was first used. Small design changes are indicated by a letter after the year (for example—1990B). The series year is not necessarily the year the bill was printed.

 

photo of serial number   Serial Number
Serial numbers are in the upper right and lower left part of a bill. No two notes of the same series and denomination have the same serial number.

 

You probably know who is on the $1 bill, but do you know who is on the $50 bill? Below is a chart of who and what is on the front and back of bills printed in the United States.

 

  Face Back
$1 front of $1 bill back of $1 bill back of $1 bill
  George Washington Great Seal of the United States
$5 front of $5 bill back of $5 bill
  Abraham Lincoln Lincoln Memorial
$10 front of $10 bill back of $10 bill
  Alexander Hamilton U.S. Treasury Building
$20 front of $20 bill back of $20 bill
  Andrew Jackson White House
$50 front of $50 bill back of $50 bill
  Ulysses S. Grant U.S. Capitol
$100 front of $100 bill back of $100 bill
  Benjamin Franklin Independence Hall
The Series 1963A $2 note bore Thomas Jefferson on its face and Monticello on the reverse. The Series 1976 note features a portrait of Thomas Jefferson painted in the early 1800s by Gilbert Stuart and the back design is a vignette based on an engraved reduction of the painting, “The Signing of the Declaration of Independence,” by John Trumbull.

 

photo of a federal reserve bank seal   Federal Reserve Bank Seal
U.S. money is distributed for circulation by the 12 Federal Reserve Banks. These institutions act as “banks for the banks.” To find out more about the what the Federal Reserve does,
see The Fed: Our Central Bank.
Before 1996, a seal from a Federal Reserve Bank is printed on each bill. Beginning with the $100 bill in 1996, a general seal that represents the Federal Reserve System will replace individual bank seals. Currently, the letter on the seal matches the district number of that bank. The district number is located in the four corners of the bill.

(For more on the changes made to newly issued currency see

U.S. Currency — New Designs)

 

Federal Reserve Banks are located in the following 12 cities:

 

CITY

LETTER

NUMBER

Boston

A

1

New York

B

2

Philadelphia

C

3

Cleveland

D

4

Richmond

E

5

Atlanta

F

6

Chicago

G

7

St. Louis

H

8

Minneapolis

I

9

Kansas City

J

10

Dallas

K

11

San Francisco

L

12

Which Federal Reserve Bank seal is on the money in your pocket?


Chairman Ben S. Bernanke

At the U.S. Chamber Education and Workforce Summit, Washington, D.C.

September 24, 2007

Education and Economic Competitiveness

When I travel around the country, meeting with students, business people, and others interested in the economy, I am occasionally asked for investment advice.  Usually (though not always) the question is posed in jest.  No one really expects me to tell them which three stocks they should buy.  However, I know the answer to the question and I will share it with you today:  Education is the best investment.

Here at the U.S. Chamber Education and Workforce Summit, I don’t really need to convince you that, as an investment, education provides excellent returns, both for individuals and for society.  As executives accustomed to making hard cost-benefit decisions, you doubtless assign a high priority to the quality of your business’s workforce because you know that a key--perhaps the key--to your success is the capabilities of the people you employ.  To a significant extent, those capabilities are the product of education.  Here I am speaking not just of education acquired formally in classrooms before entering the workforce but also of lifelong learning that, yes, includes the formal classroom training that might first come to mind but that also includes early childhood programs, informal mentoring on the job, and mid-career retraining, to name a few examples.  And when I speak of capabilities, I mean not only the knowledge derived from education but also the values, skills, and personal traits acquired through education, which are as important as, and sometimes even more important than, the specific knowledge obtained.  These include such qualities as the ability to think critically, to communicate clearly and logically, and to see a project through from start to finish.

Today, I would like to offer a broad overview of education and its importance to our economy from my perspective not only as an economist but also as a one-time school board member, the spouse of a teacher, and the parent of two young adults pursuing higher education.  Although the United States has long been a world leader in expanding educational opportunities, we have also long grappled with challenges, such as troubling high-school dropout rates, particularly for minority and immigrant youths, and frustratingly slow and uneven progress in raising test scores and other measures of educational achievement.  If we are to make progress in meeting these challenges, we must be willing to actively debate their causes and continually experiment and innovate to find solutions.

The Benefits of Education
Education imparts significant benefits both to our society and the individuals who pursue it.  Economists have long recognized that the skills of the workforce are an important source of economic growth.  Moreover, as the increase over time in the returns to education and skill is likely the single greatest cause of the long-term rise in economic inequality, policies that lead to broad investments in education and training can help reduce inequality while expanding economic opportunity (Bernanke, 2007).  But the benefits of education are more than economic.  A substantial body of evidence demonstrates that more-highly-educated individuals are happier on average, make better personal financial decisions, suffer fewer spells of unemployment, and enjoy better health.  Benefiting society as a whole, educated individuals are more likely to participate in civic affairs, volunteer their time to charities, and subscribe to personal values--such as tolerance and an appreciation of cultural differences--that are increasingly crucial for the healthy functioning of our diverse society (Glaeser, Ponzetto, and Shleifer, 2006; Dee, 2004).

From a macroeconomic standpoint, education is important because it is so directly linked to productivity, which, in turn, is the critical determinant of the overall standard of living.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that, between 1987 and 2006, ongoing improvement in the education and experience of the U.S. workforce contributed 0.4 percentage point per year to the increase in nonfarm business labor productivity (U.S. Department of Labor, 2007), a significant amount.  These estimates are however conservative in that they hold fixed other sources of productivity growth, such as the accumulation of various forms of capital and the advance of technology; but workers’ skills certainly contribute indirectly to productivity growth by affecting these other factors as well.  For example, the state of technology is affected both by the creativity and knowledge of scientists and engineers engaged in formal research and development as well as by the efforts of skilled workers on the shop floor who find more efficient ways to accomplish a given task.  Managers who develop a new business plan or find new ways to use evolving technologies can also be thought of as adding to the “intangible,” or knowledge-based, capital of the firm, which by some estimates is comparable in importance to physical capital such as factories and equipment (Corrado, Hulten, and Sichel, 2006).

For individuals, the economic returns to education are substantial as well.  In 2006, the median weekly earnings of college graduates were 75 percent higher than the earnings of high-school graduates.  In turn, workers with a high-school degree earned 42 percent more than those without any diploma.1  These differentials are large and have been growing; indeed, they have roughly doubled in the past twenty-five years or so.  The source of the widening wage gap between the more-educated and less-educated is nothing more complicated than supply and demand.  The demand for more-educated workers has been increasing rapidly, partly because the much more widespread use of computers and other sophisticated information and communication technologies in the workplace has increased the reward for technical skills.  The supply of highly educated workers has also risen.  At the start of the 1980s, 22 percent of young adults aged 25 to 29 held a college degree or more; by last year, that fraction had moved up to 28.5 percent.2  Nevertheless, the supply of educated workers has not kept pace with demand, thus generating an increased salary premium for education.  Because the wages of those at the top of the educational ladder have increased the fastest, increasing our investment in education can benefit not only individuals and society but also might narrow income gaps.

Education and the Challenges Facing America Today
The educational challenges our society faces should be considered in the context of three broad trends: the retirement of the baby-boom generation, the inexorable advance of the technological frontier, and the ongoing globalization of economic activity.

As the baby boomers, now ranging in age from their late 40s to early 60s, leave the workforce, their places will be taken by the smaller cohort of workers born in the mid-to-late 1960s and early 1970s.  As a result, the U.S. workforce--as a matter of simple arithmetic--will increase more slowly and is likely to become less experienced on average (Jorgenson and others, 2007; Aaronson and Sullivan, 2002).  In a broader sense, the ratio of working people to retirees will decline, meaning that those still working will, in effect, be supporting relatively more non-working people.  This year, there are about five working-age people (20-64) for every person aged 65 and older; by 2030, the ratio will be about 3-to-1 (Bernanke, 2006).  The slower expansion of the labor force, all else equal, implies slower growth of potential output.  More schooling for more of the workforce could help cushion the impact of this demographic transition on economic growth by boosting productivity growth.

Continuing advances in technology also put a premium on education.  Which jobs will be most affected by technology is difficult to predict, although some research suggests that sectors that now use information technology (IT) relatively less intensively, such as health-care and other service sectors, are likely to step up their use of software and IT services (Mann, 2003).  Regardless, better-educated workers are likely better prepared to adapt to new technologies as they develop (Doms, Dunne, and Troske, 1997).

Ongoing globalization of economic activity will also lead to continuing changes in the structure of the U.S. economy--including the composition of our output of both goods and services, and thus the structure of our labor force.  The world economy is benefiting from the expansion of trade and the rising productivity of countries abroad that are making great strides expanding both their infrastructure and the educational attainment of their workforces.  That can be good for them, and for us.  Importantly, our ability to reap the benefits of globalization will depend on the flexibility of our labor force to adapt to changes in job opportunities, in part by investing in the education and training necessary to meet the new demands (Bernanke, 2004).

Educational Attainment and Achievement: Where Do We Stand?
The United States has a long tradition of recognizing the significant social and economic benefits of providing high-quality education for as many of its citizens as possible.  The United States led the world, first, in expanding access to high-school education and, then, in the post-World War II era, access to college (Goldin, 2001; Goldin and Katz, 1999).  By 1966, about half of the workforce aged 25 and older had completed high school and about 10 percent had completed college.  By 2006, more than 90 percent of adults in the labor force had a high-school education and more than 20 percent held at least a bachelor’s degree.  However, most of the progress over the past forty years occurred in the 1970s and early 1980s.  Since then, for example, the high-school graduation rate for 25-to-29-year-olds has not increased, and the college completion rate has risen only modestly (U.S. Department of Education, 2007b).

One trend is particularly disappointing:  Both high-school and college completion rates for minorities continue to lag.3  Over the past ten years, the high-school completion rate for whites aged 25 to 29 hovered above 93 percent, while the rate for blacks of the same age stayed near 87 percent; the rate for Hispanics, though trending up over the period, was only 63 percent last year.  The gaps in college completion are wider.  In recent years, more than one-third of whites aged 25 to 29 had at least a bachelor’s degree, compared with less than one-fifth of same-aged blacks and around 10 percent of Hispanics.

Assessing where we stand in terms of educational achievement (how much students learn) is fraught with considerably greater difficulties than assessing attainment (how far students progress in their schooling).  And, the results of various metrics highlight both discouraging and encouraging elements.  The Department of Education’s National Assessment of Educational Progress shows the average reading levels of our high-school seniors have stagnated in recent years; however, our fourth graders continue to improve in reading, and both fourth and eighth graders have improved in math (U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 2007b).  At the same time, some initial results from the adoption of state accountability standards suggest that they have had a positive effect on students’ test-score gains (Jacob, 2005; Hanushek and Raymond, 2004).  International comparisons of student achievement are even more difficult and present a mixed picture.4  Compared with students around the world, U.S. students still perform relatively well in reading and, in the lower grades, at math and science.  Older U.S. students, however, show less ability to apply math and science skills than their peers in other industrialized countries.

Lifelong Learning Can Help Us Meet Economic Challenges
In the past, the U.S. education system has responded to the needs of a changing economy, and I believe that as we address such challenges as the retirement of the baby-boom generation, advancing technology, and globalization, our education system will again make an important contribution to the adjustment process.  That means, of course, that we will have to grapple with difficult issues--how to boost educational attainment, particularly for minorities and immigrant youths; how to make more consistent and noticeable progress in raising academic achievement; and how to ensure that older workers have meaningful opportunities to refresh their skills.

What can be done so that our educational system will continue to play a significant role in supporting economic change?  In broad terms, we must begin by recognizing that learning is a lifelong process and that we have opportunities to improve education at every point along the way.  Many of these opportunities lie outside the traditional route of a kindergarten-through-twelfth-grade education followed by four years of college.  I’d like to comment briefly on what economists have found about the benefits of educational investments at different points in the life cycle.

Early Childhood Education
Building the foundation for lifelong learning from the earliest ages is crucial (Heckman, Stixrud, and Urzua, 2006).  Research suggests that the home environment is especially important and that children who start behind find catching up increasingly difficult (Heckman and Masterov, 2007).  Thus, the payoff from high-quality pre-school and home visitation programs is likely very high, especially for children born into poor or otherwise disadvantaged families.  Recent research--some sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in collaboration with the University of Minnesota--has documented high returns from early childhood programs in terms of subsequent educational attainment and in lower rates of social problems, such as crime, teenage pregnancy, and welfare dependency (Burr and Grunewald, 2006).
5  But early childhood education is only the beginning.  Positive results from programs such as Head Start dissipate without further high-quality schooling at the elementary and secondary levels (Garces, Thomas, and Currie, 2002).

Elementary and Secondary Schooling
Deciding what and how to teach students from kindergarten through high school and then evaluating our schools’ effectiveness in preparing students for the workforce and a lifetime of learning is a daunting task.  I will make only a few observations on the goals we should keep in mind as we explore ways to improve learning at the elementary and secondary levels. 

First, we should encourage experimentation and innovation.  By my reading, the research on K-12 education has, to date, yielded no easy answers to the questions of how to raise academic achievement and how to ensure that students finish high school well prepared to move on to more advanced study.  A wide range of approaches has been and is being explored:  smaller class size, school choice, charter school programs, accountability standards, flexibility in teacher certification rules, better teacher pay, merit-based pay, year-round schooling--the list is long and probably will get longer.  The size and diversity of our country, together with the fact that state and local policymakers retain significant discretion over how to structure their educational systems, provides us a natural laboratory for assessing the effectiveness of alternative educational strategies.  I view the debate about what works and what doesn’t to be a crucial part of discovering cost-effective ways to improve our educational system.

The business community has an obvious interest in how well our schools prepare students for a future in the workforce and should actively participate in the debate.  But we all have a stake.  Students at the elementary and secondary levels are being prepared not just for work but for life.  Such skills and acquired traits as critical and creative thinking, social ability, persistence, and satisfaction in accomplishment make not only good employees but good citizens as well.  Exposure to the arts and culture and experience in serving the community can help support the development of these broader, harder-to-measure skills, alongside more readily measurable cognitive accomplishments in reading, math, and science.  

Second, teacher quality is critical.  Studies show that student performance depends on putting high-quality teachers in the classroom and retaining them as long as possible (Aaronson, Barrow, and Sander, 2007; Rivkin, Hanushek, and Kain, 2005; Rockoff, 2004).  Indeed, many initiatives focus on linking students, especially disadvantaged students, with high-quality schools staffed by high-quality teachers.  High-quality teachers instill in their young students a desire to stay in school and seek more education later in life, and the evidence suggests that the quality of teaching might have the biggest impact on lower-ability students (Murnane and Steele, 2007; Clotfelter and others, 2006; Hanushek, Kain, and Rivkin, 2004).  Unfortunately, our most disadvantaged communities, the ones most troubled by high dropout rates, have difficulty attracting and keeping qualified teachers.

We must instill a desire among students to stay in school and to seek more education and training over their working lives.  Our elementary and secondary schools must provide students a strong foundation for a life of learning.  Although a wide range of remedial education programs exist, research suggests that they are more costly and less effective than a solid, sustained course of study through high school.  In particular, government training programs for disadvantaged youth have a rather disappointing reputation, particularly those that are less intensive and not well tied to labor market needs (Martin and Grubb, 2001; Heckman, LaLonde, and Smith, 1999).

A number of possibilities for improving the education of disadvantaged students seem worth exploring.  For example, several experiments suggest that smaller schools and smaller classes may help disadvantaged students (although the benefits of such programs for the general student population remain controversial).  Supplemental education, including after-school and mentoring programs such as Big Brothers Big Sisters, have been shown to boost school attendance (Grossman and Tierney, 1998).  Increasing school time--either through longer school hours or summer school--also has found some support (Jacob and Lefgren, 2004). 

Higher Education
In many ways, higher education represents the strongest part of the U.S. educational system, as demonstrated by the fact that students from all parts of the world come here to study.  Our institutions of higher learning are extraordinarily varied, ranging from large public research universities to small liberal arts colleges to community colleges and vocational schools.

The main business of our institutions of higher education is, of course, undergraduate teaching.  But unlike some countries, we do not separate research and undergraduate education; our advanced, graduate-level research programs are housed in universities with strong undergraduate programs.  Thus, our colleges and universities are important sources of research and development (National Science Foundation, 2007; Litan, Mitchell, and Reedy, forthcoming).  More than half our basic research--the foundation for breakthroughs that create new industries--is conducted at universities.  Additionally, higher education has embraced the broader mission of translating research into new products and enterprises; our colleges and universities account for 15 percent of applied research and development (National Science Foundation, 2007).  The innovations that begin on campuses are diffused to businesses through patents, start-up companies, and consulting arrangements between faculty and industry.

One great challenge in higher education lies in making sure our high-school graduates are prepared for it and have access to it.  With college enrollment rates having leveled off in recent years, much debate surrounds how we can move more students into higher education and keep them in school until they graduate.  Researchers have demonstrated a strong relationship between family income and college attendance.  Since 1990, nearly 80 percent of high-school completers from high-income families (the top 20 percent of income) have enrolled in college the next fall.  The proportion of those from low-income families who enroll in college the following fall has been moving up gradually, but it remains much lower--just over 50 percent.6  This discrepancy holds even for students classified as high achievers:  A longitudinal study of eighth graders in 1988 found that only 29 percent of those scoring in the top fourth of the group in math--but who were from families with low social and economic status--had completed a bachelor’s degree or more by 2000, while three-fourths of those from families with high social and economic status finished their undergraduate degrees (Fox, Connelly, and Snyder, 2005).7  Surely, high tuition must be one barrier to attending and completing college (Card, 2001; Kane, 1994), but it is not the only barrier (Dynarski, 2005).  Low-income students, in particular, are more likely to come from school and family environments that do a poor job of preparing them for a successful transition to college (Carneiro and Heckman, 2003).  This suggests that supplemental programs to help under-prepared college students could improve eventual college completion rates; unfortunately, the research on the benefits of such programs is mixed, which reinforces the need to improve educational achievement in regular high school classes (Bettinger and Long, 2005; Angrist, Lang, and Oreopoulos, 2006).

Community colleges have made a significant contribution to expanding educational opportunities.  Offering lower costs and more-flexible schedules, they now enroll almost one-half of U.S. undergraduates.  Attendance at one of these institutions is associated with higher wages, even if a degree is not completed.  Evidence suggests that each year of credit at a community college is worth almost as much, in terms of increased earnings potential, as a year at a four-year college.  The average student who entered, but did not complete, community college earns 9 percent to 13 percent more than the average for students who ended their education with high school.  Those who completed a two-year associate degree earn an even larger premium, 15 percent to 27 percent (Kane and Rouse, 1999).  And the earnings of graduates who started at two-year schools and transferred to four-year programs ultimately match those who begin their post-high-school education at four-year institutions (Gill and Leigh, 2003).  Community colleges play a constructive role not only for 18-to-22-year-olds but also for older adults, providing flexible programs for obtaining new skills, specialized training contracted for by individual businesses, remedial education, and adult enrichment.

Adult Education
Today we are increasingly recognizing that education need not, indeed should not, stop at the age of 22.  Economists have long argued that on-the-job training and learning-by-doing are significant components of the acquisition of human capital.  Research shows that the knowledge and experience gained over time through informal and formal learning on the job appear to pay off for workers and accrues particularly rapidly early in their careers (Altonji and Williams, 2005; Topel, 1991).  An extensive survey of firm-sponsored training a number of years ago found that 84 percent of employees received some kind of formal training while working for their current employer, and 96 percent received some type of informal training (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1996).  With the advance of technology and the need to attract and retain skilled workers, I am certain that business-sponsored training will remain an important component of the management toolkit.

Upgrading skills through continuing education and training outside the job is also important, particularly in an environment in which workers can face displacement from international competition or technological advance.  Recognizing this possibility, many workers continue to acquire formal education later in life than was once traditional.  For example, almost one-fifth of students at post-secondary institutions of all types are at least 35 years old (National Center for Education Statistics, 2007a).  And, for older workers looking to retool their skills, classroom instruction has been shown to be effective.  For example, classroom training for displaced workers is estimated to boost future wages as much as for students of the usual school age, although the overall return on investment for displaced workers is lower because they have fewer remaining working years than do new entrants to the labor force (Jacobsen, LaLonde, Sullivan, 2005).  Similarly, studies of a number of welfare-to-work programs have reported long-term gains for those who participated in intensive basic education and vocational training (Dyke and others, 2006; Hotz, Imbens, Klerman, 2006).  Such results suggest that well-designed programs to assist workers who lose their jobs can contribute to cushioning the effects of globalization and technological change.

Conclusion
Let me close by reiterating that education--lifelong education for everyone, from toddlers to workers well advanced in their careers--is indeed an excellent investment for individuals and society as a whole.  Education fundamentally supports advances in productivity, upon which our ability to generate continuing improvement in our standard of living depends.  If we are to successfully navigate such challenges as the retirement of the baby-boom generation, advancing technology, and increasing globalization, we must work diligently to maintain the quality of our educational system where it is strong and strive to improve it where it is not.  In particular, we must find ways to move more of our students, especially minorities and students from disadvantaged backgrounds, into educational opportunities after high school.  To do that, we must continually experiment, innovate, and evaluate so that we can make rational decisions about what works and what doesn’t in education.  Because the quality of your workforces is so vital to the success of your businesses, you as business executives must participate fully in this process, along with other stakeholders--students, parents, teachers, and policymakers.  I’m encouraged that you are devoting so much energy and thought to this topic at this three-day conference.



References

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Footnotes

1.  The data are weekly earnings of full-time wage and salary workers aged twenty-five and older and are derived from the Current Population Survey, published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Return to text

2. The data are derived from the Current Population Survey, published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Return to text

3. The data are derived from the Current Population Survey, March and Annual Social and Economic Supplement, 1971-2006, published by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Return to text

4.  The results of two prominent international assessments--The Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study, conducted under the aegis of the International Association for the Evaluation of Educational Achievement, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s Program for International Student Assessment--are summarized in the 2006 Digest of Education Statistics published by the U.S. Department of Education (2007a).  http://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d06/ch_6.asp Return to text

5.  More information on the Early Childhood Research Collaborative and copies of its research papers can be obtained from the website of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, www.earlychildhoodrc.org. Return to text

6.  These data are derived from the annual October Supplement to the Current Population Survey.  They are summarized in the U.S. Department of Education’s Condition of Education 2007 available at http://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/2007/section3/indicator 25.asp#info. Return to text

7.  Socioeconomic status was measured by a composite score on parental education and occupations and family income.  The study also found that the proportion of low-scoring math students from high socioeconomic families who completed at least a bachelor’s degree was 30 percent versus only 3 percent for those from lower socioeconomic families.  For those in the middle quintiles of both scores and family characteristics, the proportion was 21 percent. Return to text


How Professional Are You?

When it comes to being a respected professional, you have a reputation to protect. Bad behaviors by other agents can spoil the way you are perceived by your potential clients. Act unprofessional to another agent or sales associate, and your name might be smeared forever. By Michael J. Pallerino

Dorrie Freiman still thinks about the conversation. No matter how many times she replays it in her head, the comment made by a Realtor on the other end of the phone line doesn’t change: “You better pay me my commission.”

Paying a commission was never the issue. The real issue was that Freiman, director of marketing and sales at the Waterview Tower and Shangri-La Hotel in Chicago, couldn’t remember having ever met the Realtor. In fact, she never did. As it turned out, he mentioned the Waterview to a prospective client who had shown some interest in the property, and he wanted to make sure he was going to get his due.

“I couldn’t believe he said it,” she recalls. “He didn’t take his client to visit us. He recommended us. We get Realtors all the time that call, ask what the commission is and then hang up. At some point, you have to ask, ‘what’s driving you, your client or the money?’ We’re finding that more buyers are starting to research properties online or visit places themselves (including the aforementioned Realtor’s client), because they don’t feel they’re getting the help they need. We’re hearing this from the buyers. You have to add value to what you are doing.”

In the ever-changing world of real estate, value can be translated into myriad definitions. But there may not be a more important value than that professionalism, an area many agents and brokers agree needs improvement.

Ever-changing contracts. Misread and misunderstood terms and conditions. Missed appointments. Unreturned phone calls. Incorrect product descriptions. Ask real estate agents or brokers about the sometimes unprofessional conduct – intentional or not – of their colleagues in the field, and watch them squirm, roll their eyes or just plain get mad. Like most industries, the real estate market is not without its share of horror stories regarding agent professionalism. Some agents fall short of conducting business in a respectable manner, let alone above board.

A Miami agent with 30 years in the business tells a story of when she once worked on a contract involving a Realtor who presented himself as not only the nicest agent in the business, but one of the most knowledgeable. Well, let’s just say he was only nice. Midway through the deal, the terms and conditions of the contract he pulled together started to randomly change. To say that nothing added up was the mother of all contract negotiation understatements. To make matters even more complicated and frustrating, the Realtor had no idea what the veteran agent was talking about when she pointed out the discrepancies. In fact, he thought the whole situation was outrageous. When she told him that it appeared that he had never sold a home before, he simply nodded in approval, as if the situation wasn’t uncomfortable enough.

“At risk of sounding cliché, [agents should] following the golden rule,” says Connie Abels, owner and broker of RE/MAX NorthCoast. “[There must be an] understanding that to all of us, time is money. There are several things agents can do to treat each other more professionally. First, it’s respect. Respect that we all have schedules to be met, clients that are late, clients that call at the last minute, keys that don’t work, etc. Understand that anyone can make a mistake. It’s how the Realtor handles the mistake that determines a professional.”

Abel says the little things, and how you deal with them, right or wrong, are how your colleagues and clients will judge you. Take being late or blowing off an appointment, for instance. Most agents or brokers who have been in the business for a reasonable length of time have had this happen. You’d think a simple phone call explaining why you are running late or why you need to reschedule would be in order. Think again.

“I have been stood up by agents on several occasions,” says Ruby M. Ramsey, the Illinois State President of the Women’s Council of Realtors (Chicago Chapter) and owner of RG Ramsey & Associates. “Even after expressing to the agent that you will meet them at the property, if for any reason you can’t make it, just call. Needless to say, the agent doesn’t show up and doesn’t call. This happens often. I make sure I notify an agent in a timely manner, if I find the appointment needs to be cancelled. It’s the professional thing to do.”


Up to code
A paragraph in the “Code of Ethics and Standard of Practice of the National Association of Realtors” should be committed to memory by every real estate agent and broker. It reads: “The term REALTOR has come to connote competency, fairness, and high integrity resulting from adherence to a lofty ideal of moral conduct in business relations. No inducement of profit and no instruction from clients ever can justify departure from this ideal.”

Mabel Guzman, a director with the Chicago Association of Realtors, says all agents know what is ethical and unethical. “It’s that some have been able to get away with it and find it’s not that bad,” she says. “Until they get caught. I think a combination of lack of experience, lack of education and a lack of accountability are some of the reasons. But, the individual Realtor does not see how their actions impact the industry overall. Good experiences infrequently are communicated. One bad experience is communicated frequently over and over.


Show me the way
Bert Oliva, a renowned public speaker, author and corporate trainer, says a real estate agent cannot help anybody if he cannot help himself first. In almost every misstep and miscommunication, there is a method behind the madness.

“You cannot change the situation, you can only change yourself,” he says. “[When you look at why you have uneducated agents in the field] money is not the root of all evil, the love of money is. It’s time that agents team up and work together. It’s all about relationships and finding the answers to questions that you don’t have. It’s about mentoring. Everybody has one.”

RE/MAX’s Abels says professionalism comes down to understanding your respective role and how it plays into the big picture. “The roles of the buyer agent, the listing agent and, sometimes, how they get defined varies in different areas,” she says. “In the ‘burbs, the listing agent puts a lock box on the property and sometimes never interacts with the buyer agent at all. In the city, it’s more common for the listing agent to meet the buyer’s agent and their buyer for all inspections, the listing agent meets the appraiser, and the listing agent meets the buyer’s agent for the final walk-through.”

For many agents, and especially their clients and colleagues, the bottom line is respect. This is a major factor when it comes to the number of inexperienced agents in the field. “The very first thing a new agent should do is to offer to take a lender to lunch under the premise that the lender needs to give a mortgage lesson 101,” Abels says. “And then, the new agent should take a different lender to lunch, to learn from that lender. I tell my new recruits that if they don’t understand how to finance the buyers, they will not succeed. Understanding the loan is as critical to our business.”

Guzman says the easiest step – asking for advice – is usually the toughest for new agents to do. “They should pull the other agent aside and say, ‘I’m new and I may ask you a lot of questions,’ or ‘I may not do everything right, so please let me know if I screw up.’ Cooperation doesn’t only apply to compensation.”

The steps to being professional are not complicated. In the end, it’s just about using common sense and decency. Freiman believes professionalism should be the code to which all Realtors and brokers adhere, first and foremost. “We set a very high standard for ourselves in our building,” she says. “Our architects, our designers...we except and demand the best from everybody. That’s the way it should be for everybody. We need the brokerage community. They are the heart and soul.” C.A.


CONTACTS:
Connie Abels
Broker
RE/MAX NorthCoast
773.353.9180
connie.abels@gmail.com

Dorrie Freiman
Director, Marketing and Sales
Waterview Tower &
Shangri-La Hotel, Chicago
312.558.9100, ext. 13
dfreiman@waterviewtower.com

Mabel Guzman
Director
Chicago Association of REALTORS
312.214.5539
mguzman@chicagorealtor.com

Bert Oliva
Bert Oliva Enterprises
305.774.3438
bert@bertoliva.com

Ruby M. Ramsey
Illinois State President, Women’s Council of Realtors (Chicago Chapter)
Broker-Owner, RG Ramsey & Associates
773.873.3484
r21ramsey@aol.com


Be Smart, Safe When Showing a House


By Ginger Downs, RCE, CAE, IOM
Chief Executive Officer
Chicago Association of Realtors


In January 2001, when I was serving as executive VP of the Seattle-King County Association of Realtors, one of our agents was brutally murdered while showing a home in an affluent suburb of Seattle. Mike Emert was a happily married man, and he and his wife Mary Beth both enjoyed successful careers in real estate. His murder sent a shockwave through both the Seattle community and the real estate industry. No suspect was ever found.

As Realtor Safety Week approaches (Sept. 9-15), I am reminded of Mike’s senseless and tragic death and remember the important role that personal safety must play in a Realtor’s work. After Mike’s murder, the Real Estate Safety Council, with which the Seattle-King County Association of Realtors became closely involved, spent many hours creating an intensive safety program, “Be on the Safe Side.” Our goal was to provide resources to help brokers, Realtors, and association executives keep themselves safe on the job.

Unfortunately, courses and programs alone are not always enough to protect us.

Mike’s death was not an isolated incident in a far away place. In the year following Mike’s murder, 19 real estate professionals were victims of fatal violent attacks. More recently, in May 2007, a College Park, Maryland-based Realtor, Samuel D’Costa, was found shot to death in the basement of the home he had intended to show. No suspects are in custody, and the police are still investigating to determine a motive. And just this summer, right here in Chicago, at least four women were victims of separate attacks in their affluent Lakeview neighborhood, both in broad daylight and late at night.

My goal is not to scare you with these stories, but to make you realize that your safety is never something to take for granted. These incidents have prompted Realtors across the country to reexamine the ways in which they protect themselves while showing homes.

According to a survey conducted by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) in 2003, 67 percent of those Realtors surveyed had concerns about their on-the-job safety. NAR provides a number of tips and resources on their Web site, including handouts you can distribute amongst your colleagues, safety presentation talking points, and a list of 52 valuable safety tips.

Some of these tips are:
• Meet all new clients at the office and verify their identities
• Whenever possible, avoid being at the office alone
• Take a personal safety course
• Always keep a mobile phone handy; program emergency numbers into speed dial
• Ask the local police department to have a squad car drive by during open-house hours
• Check the cell phone’s strength and signal before an open house
• Upon entering a house for the first time, check all rooms and determine several “escape” routes
• Once inside, turn on the lights and open the curtains
• When prospects begin to arrive, jot down their car descriptions, license numbers and physical descriptions
• Notify someone in the office, or a friend or relative, that you will call every hour, and to notify police if no call is made.

There are three additional pieces of advice
that I would like you to offer:
1. Ensure that all personal information is up-to-date with your supervisor or managing broker. Keep your supervisor aware of any health conditions you may need special assistance for and make certain your next-of-kin’s contact information is current, so that we may get in touch with them quickly in the event of an emergency.

2. Institute office or neighborhood-specific safety policies for your office and agents. While the NAR’s suggestions offer guidelines for protecting yourself, it is important that you and your colleagues customize a plan that works for the neighborhoods and clients that you service. Consider enrolling your entire office in a safety course together. If showing a property alone at night, bring another agent along. When showing any property, make a photocopy of the client’s driver’s license before taking them to the site.

3. Follow common sense guidelines. This may seem like it goes without saying, but following your gut instinct can keep you out of harm’s way. Park your cars in well-lit areas and make sure you aren’t blocked in by other vehicles. Keep 9-1-1 on speed dial.

Mike’s death in 2001 was heartbreaking to our entire community and is something that I still struggle to comprehend six years later. Please take some time this month to consider what actions you and your colleagues can take to make yourselves as safe as possible in all aspects of your jobs.

The Chicago Association of Realtors, “The Voice for Real Estate in Chicago” since 1883, represents the business interests of more than 17,000 real estate professionals in the Chicagoland area. The Chicago Association of Realtors is led by a voluntary board of directors, elected by the membership, who works in partnership with a professional administrative staff.


What are the most difficult of selling new construction?   by Chicago Agent Magazine

Deborah Greenberg
Koenig & Strey GMAC
River North

Selling new construction can pose many challenges. From long delivery times to buying from a floor plan, buyers are being pulled in many different directions. With the large number of new developments and a high inventory of resale units, there is a lot to choose from. Nice finishes, functional floor plans and amenities, both neighborhood and building, provide sellers with the tools to overcome the challenges of selling new construction.


Ismael Perez
Exit Team Realty
Roscoe village

When it comes to new construction, there are three things that require meticulous management. First, it’s critical the builder/developer produces a product that is in high demand from home buyers. Second, a carefully thought out pricing matrix is paramount, especially in our present market. Finally, delivering the new construction product on time and in completed condition solidifies positive feelings toward the builder/developer and advocates strong brand position for the agent and brokerage.


Linda Landsell
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage
Lake Forest

New construction appeals to buyers who want to move immediately, without waiting for renovations to finish. However, marketing these houses can be tricky. Agents must make the home feels warm and inviting, and showcase the livability of each room. Depending on the seller’s budget, this can be done by staging the home with furniture and props, or by adding choice floral arrangements for color and depth. Another challenge is educating buyers to the costs of high-end finishes commonly found in new construction, such as moldings, appliances and plumbing fixtures. Buyers often have unrealistic expectations with what features will cost, and it is the agent’s job to anticipate this and forewarn them before they begin their search.


Matthew Kombrink
RE/MAX Excels
Geneva

Right now, in our area, there is just as much greater supply of existing inventory, and a substantial part of that inventory is still relatively new, already landscaped and improved and have gone through the builder punch list phase. When builders/developers purchased the land years ago, the market was different, and their pricing was based on the higher values in the market back then. When you compare that to the falling prices in the existing home market, you end up with less demand for the new construction.”


Do I need an attorney to sell a home?

Although most sellers can handle routine real estate purchase contracts, some experts say it is a good idea to be represented by an attorney, particularly if you are selling on your own. You should choose one with expertise in real estate transactions. Before hiring someone discuss all the details of the transaction, including all legal costs you will incur. A good attorney will assist you in completing the deal swiftly and with confidence.


What are some costs associated with buying a new home?

The costs are no different from when you purchased your existing home. They include moving expenses, loan costs, the down payment, a home inspection, title work and policy, and paying for a new hazard insurance policy. Your lender can give you a disclosure of estimated costs when you apply to be pre-approved for a home loan.


What are some costs associated with selling my home?

Besides the costs related to making repairs and improving the overall appearance of the home, as the seller you will also need to pay the following:

  • A real estate commission, if you use an agency to sell.
  • Advertising costs, marketing materials, and other fees if you sell the home yourself.
  • Attorney, closing, or other professional fees.
  • Title insurance
  • Excise tax for the sale.
  • Prorated costs for your share of annual expenses, such as property taxes, homeowner association fees, and fuel tank rentals.
  • Any other fees normally paid by sellers in your area, including points, survey, and appraisal fees.                                                                                                                                                                   
    To get a better handle on all costs, ask a real estate agent. Agents deal with this information daily and can give you a pretty good estimate of the closing costs you can expect to pay.
  •  


    What else should I know?

    Once your home is available to be shown strive to keep it in tip-top shape. This will require a lot of effort on your part, but you want buyers to feel welcomed and not turned off by unmade beds, cluttered floors, and grungy bathrooms. Realize, too, that your life will be temporarily inconvenienced. When an agent, yours as well as others, calls wishing to bring a buyer to see the home at the last minute or on the same day, respond favorably. Remember your goal is to get the home sold, and that can only be accomplished if people get to see it. Flexibility is the key to a quick sale. Plan not to be present when buyers pass through. It is awkward and unsettling for them to have the owners present. If you cannot leave, sit in the backyard. But do not attempt to have conversations with the buyer. Speak only when spoken to; be brief and polite. Finally, pay special attention to pets, particularly dogs. They can be intimidating. Put them on a leash and in the backyard. Better yet, when possible, take them with you. And be keen to pet odors. They can turn buyers away.


    Sam Zell On The Credit Crisis: It's Not That Bad
    Knowledge@Wharton 09.21.07, 12:00 PM ET

    Master real estate investor Sam Zell has built a fortune on the cycles that shape his industry. These days, he believes the current turmoil in financial markets is more an emotional reaction to another period of excess, not a true credit collapse.

    In a wide-ranging lecture at Wharton, moderated by real estate professor Peter Linneman, the Chicago-based investor said current markets are spooked by problems with U.S. subprime lending. However, they still have capital to deploy, unlike during other real estate busts, when financing could not be arranged at any price.

    "We're not really in a 'credit crunch.' I think what we are in is a 'confidence crunch,'" said Zell, funder of the Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center at Wharton. "I would argue the excess liquidity that existed eight weeks ago still exists today. It has a different risk premium on it, but the actual amount of liquidity has not changed."

    Zell said the slump should come as no surprise: "Over the last three, years people were flippant. They bought anything they wanted and were proud that they didn't do due diligence. I think they have all been chagrined and are scared out of their minds."

    'The Godfather Offer'

    According to Zell, private equity firms awash with capital were able to benefit from "preposterous" leverage and offer premium prices to publicly held real estate firms. Zell said he considered a deal like that a "Godfather offer," because no publicly held company could responsibly refuse. Indeed, in February, Zell sold his flagship business, Equity Office Products (EOP), and its portfolio of 540 prime office buildings to Blackstone Group (nyse: BX - news - people ) for $39 billion. At the time, it was the largest private equity deal ever completed.

     

    Zell predicted that markets will soon stabilize, although they will become more risk averse and less leveraged than in recent years. "Today, you would never be able to replicate the Blackstone deal."

    Following the sale of EOP, Zell turned his attention to another major transaction. In August, shareholders of Tribune (nyse: TRB - news - people ) approved Zell's $8.2 billion offer to purchase the business, which publishes the Chicago Tribune and Los Angeles Times and owns other media properties. The Chicago Cubs come with the deal, too, but Zell has said he plans to sell the baseball team. The Tribune transaction is under regulatory review and is expected to close by the end of the year.

    Zell did not discuss that deal directly, but pointed to his reputation as a contrarian investor. He recalled the first time he saw the market turn. In the early 1970s, the real estate industry was infused with optimism and expanding rapidly.

    Zell did not see how there would be enough demand to fill the real estate space under development. So he stopped doing new deals and structured a company to focus on distressed real estate. "Everybody else said, 'Sam, you don't understand.' I have heard that my entire career. Even when I buy newspapers in 2007, everybody says, 'If you didn't understand before, now you really don't understand.'"

    Zell is chairman of Equity Group Investments, a mix of private holdings and public companies, including Equity Residential (nyse: EQR - news - people ), a leading apartment owner; Equity LifeStyle Properties, which owns 300 vacation and manufactured housing communities; and Capital Trust, a commercial real estate finance company.

    He told the Wharton audience that he has never recovered from his first course in economics when he learned about supply and demand. "I would tell you whatever business I've been in--real estate, barges, rail cars--it's all about supply and demand."

    While still an undergraduate, and later as a law student at the University of Michigan in the mid-1960s, Zell began to buy properties in Ann Arbor. Later, he partnered with his fraternity brother, Robert Lurie, and together, they built a real estate empire before Lurie died of cancer in 1990 at age 48.

    Following a market crash in 1973, Zell spent three years acquiring $3 billion in real estate assets, much of it for $1 down. He built the portfolio by going to lenders and offering to take future operating losses off their hands in return for equity. Zell was able to carry the properties long enough for them to return to--and exceed--prior valuations. "As it turns out, we made a fortune," he said. In the 1980s, the real estate industry was again marked by aggressive lending that sparked a development boom. "The idea was 'build it and somebody will buy it,' and that somebody was the Japanese," Zell recalled.

    'Edifice Complex'

    When Linneman asked Zell why he had never become a developer, the bearded, gravel-voiced mogul replied that development is too risky for his taste. "In that business, it helps to have an 'edifice complex,'" said Zell. "At least half of your rate of return comes from the psychological benefit you get from seeing the building go up. I never suffered from that particular affliction."

     

    Again concerned that the market could not sustain the prices investors were paying, Zell and Lurie spent much of the 1980s diversifying their holdings to include other businesses. Their strategy would be the same as it had been in real estate--to look for opportunities in places where others were ignoring the rules of supply and demand. "We thought if we are good real estate guys, then we are good businessmen," Zell said.

    While real estate professionals have excellent transactional skills, he added, they often lack the foresight to plot strategy. "When it comes to delegating the negotiation of a transaction, I would always pick a real estate guy over a corporate guy," said Zell. On the other hand, real estate people lack the ability to "look around the corner. To them, the tree is always growing to the sky. Therefore, we have enormous and very volatile cycles that continue to this day."

    At the beginning of the 1990s, most of the nation's commercial real estate was concentrated in the hands of about 50 or 60 large private investors. Again, the cycle turned, and those companies were caught in a severe credit squeeze, marked by massive foreclosures and the nation's savings and loan debacle. The way out, Zell explained, was to tap the public markets through what previously had been a little-known financing vehicle, the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT).

    REITs continued to be the driving force in commercial real estate until the past year or so, when private equity acquisitions, such as his own Blackstone transaction, put many holdings back into private hands, according to Zell.

    He described his strategy during the three-week bidding war for EOP that broke out between Blackstone and Vornado Realty Trust (nyse: VNO - news - people ), the nation's second-largest REIT, which had offered a combination of cash and stock for Zell's company. The key to the deal was structuring a $720 million break-up fee, Zell said, adding that the stock deal would have taken months to close and, in hindsight, might have run into serious problems following the market jitters that developed in August.

    Accelerated Housing Demand

    Today, Linneman noted, Zell's holdings are split between real estate and other businesses. An example is Anixter International (nyse: AXE - news - people ), which dominates the market for Ethernet cables. When it comes to real estate, Zell said he is focusing on development in emerging markets through a company called Equity Group International.

     

    In 1999, Zell decided the REIT concept that had worked so well in the U.S. could be replicated in other parts of the world. He now controls major homebuilders in Mexico and Brazil, and is also branching out into India, China and Egypt. He said the Guadalajara office of the Mexican company, Homex, is open 24 hours a day, seven days a week, to meet the needs of Mexican homebuyers. "The beauty of all these places is there is unlimited demand," said Zell. "If you go back to Econ 101, these countries have huge backlogs of housing demand. The population is increasing and housing has not."

    Zell acknowledged he does not always get it right. He told the story of how he acquired the Carter Hawley Hale stores in California in 1992. His firm did an analysis and determined that the 79-store chain would be worth at least 80% of the purchase price if it had to be sold in a fire sale. Soon after, Zell was faced with a sharp recession and a major earthquake in Southern California.

    In 1995, he decided to bail out and sell the chain to its competitor, Federated Department Stores. The price? Even though he lost money on the deal, Zell finds comfort that his firm calculated the downside correctly. Federated paid 80% of what Zell did. "The investment was a failure, but the process was a success. We identified the risk we were prepared to take, and we took it."

    Linneman noted that Zell is known by the nickname "the grave dancer." According to Zell, the term grew out of the headline of an article he wrote describing his strategy of profiting off distressed real estate following the inevitable burst of the investment enthusiasm bubble. Zell said the article shows how "I was dancing on the skeletons of other people's mistakes."

    Zell, however, also pointed out that the last sentence of the article reads: "He who dances closest to the graves, always has to be careful he doesn't fall in."


    How can I get a quick sale, particularly in a slow market?

    One of the most important things to consider is price. You may want to reduce the price of your home or, at the very beginning, set it at a low price that will generate more buyer interest. Cash is often an incentive, both for the buyer as well as the agent. You could offer the buyer a $1,000 to $2,000 decorating rebate upon closing the deal. It is also not uncommon to offer the selling agent a $500 bonus. However, some brokers ? who supervise agents and run real estate offices ? may prohibit such incentives, as do some Realtor boards. Check to find out. Other common incentives: paying for the property inspection and warranty policy and getting your home preliminarily approved for FHA and VA loans, thereby making it more attractive to a larger number of buyers. Contact a lender who writes FHA-insured and VA-guaranteed loans.


    Are there tips for selling a vacant home?

    Yes. Once furniture is removed from the home, you will notice all kinds of imperfections you never paid attention to before ? rips in the carpet, holes in the walls, and dinginess. In an empty house, everything stands out. What you see is what potential buyers will also see. So you may need to paint, tear up old carpet, and replace the kitchen floor. To get rid of the ?empty house? feeling, leave a few pieces of furniture behind ? simple things like a lamp, chairs, and a table will do. Pay special attention to maintenance. Someone will need to dust and vacuum, leaves will need to be raked, and the grass cut. In the winter, consider having the heating system shut down and drained to save money. But keep the electricity running because lights will be needed to show the house. Watch out for that musty smell, particularly during the summer months, that settles in from having the windows sealed and locked. And beware of pests such as mice, squirrels, ants and bats.


    Should I sell my home first or wait until I have bought another home?

    This is a tough decision, but the answer will depend on your personal situation, as well as the condition of the local housing market. If you put your home on the market first, you may have to scramble to find another one before settlement, which could cause you to buy a home that does not meet all your requirements. If you cannot find another home, you may need to move twice, temporarily staying with relatives or in a hotel. On the other hand, if you make an offer to buy first, you may be tempted to sell your existing home quickly, even at a lower price. The advantage of buying first is you can shop carefully for the right home and feel comfortable with your decision before putting the existing home on the market. On the flip side, the advantage of selling your existing home first is that it maximizes your negotiating position because you are under no pressure to sell quickly. It also eliminates the need to carry two mortgages at once. Talk with your agent for advice. Discuss the pros and of each and whether certain contingencies written into the contract can ease some of the pressures.


    What should I do to prepare my home for sale?

    Start by finding out its worth. Contact a real estate agent for a comparative market analysis, an informal estimate of value based on the recent selling price of similar neighborhood properties. Or get a certified appraiser to provide an appraisal. Next, get busy working on the home?s appearance. You want to make sure it is in the best condition possible for showing to prospective buyers so that you can get top dollar. This means fixing or sprucing up any trouble spots that could deter a buyer, such as squeaky doors, a leaky roof, dirty carpet and walls, and broken windows. The ?curb appeal? of your home is extremely important. In fact, it is the first impression that buyers form of your property as they drive or walk up. So make sure the lawn is pristine ? the grass cut, debris removed, garden beds free of weeds, and hedges trimmed. The trick is not to overspend on pre-sale repairs and fix-ups, especially if there are few homes on the market but many buyers competing for them. On the other hand, making such repairs may be the only way to sell your home in a down market.


    When is the best time to sell a home?

    The best time to sell is when you are ready, or when you must. That is, when you have outgrown the space in your current home, or you prefer to trade down to something smaller. Perhaps your martial status has changed, which necessitates a move, or you need to relocate for a job. Market conditions also play a role, as do seasonal conditions. For example, your chances of getting top dollar for your home are more likely in a seller?s market, when demand outweighs supply, than in a buyer?s market. Local and national economic factors also may dictate when to sell. If a major employer in your area is laying off workers, it may not be a good time to put your home up for sale. People will be cautious about buying when the future seems so unpredictable or bleak. Most agents agree the best time to sell is in the spring. This is when the largest number of potential buyers hit the market. Your home is likely to sell faster and at a higher price, although sales begin to pick up as early as February and start to slack off in July, the slowest month for real estate transactions


    Solid Fundamentals Support Commercial Real Estate
    WASHINGTON, September 18, 2007 - 

    Most commercial real estate markets are enjoying relatively low vacancy rates and healthy rent growth from a fundamentally sound economy, according to the latest COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK of the National Association of Realtors®.

    NAR Senior Economist Lawrence Yun said, “Commercial real estate responds to economic growth and job creation, which have been fairly strong over the past two years and have created the need for additional commercial space,” he said.  “These fundamentals will continue to support commercial real estate markets in 2008.  There has not been much overbuilding in the commercial sectors, and investors are more diverse.”

    Yun said pricing for some commercial real estate has been at a record high, and capitalization rates have been at historic lows.  “Normalization of prices may be occurring, but it isn’t clear what the definition of normal might be in the current market given the repricing of risk in the capital market.  In short, the difference between the cash flow on a typical property and its price is close to a maximum, indicating prices may even out.”

    A record $257.0 billion was invested in commercial real estate in the first seven months of 2007, up from $146.7 billion in same period in 2006; that total does not include transactions valued at less than $5 million, or of investments in the hospitality sector.

    Cindy Chandler of Charlotte, N.C., chair of the Realtors® Commercial Alliance, said there have been some problems recently regarding the availability of capital.  “Over-reaction to credit concerns in the financial markets could limit the availability of capital needed by private investors, but overall the situation does not appear to have significantly impacted institutional-grade commercial properties,” she said.  “We're returning to the fundamentals and deal structuring of the mid 90s, and may see some dampening in investment activity, but there is a lot of momentum in commercial real estate. 

    “We see the commercial sectors holding at a healthy level of activity in most of the country, although there could be some slowing as a result of postponed transactions and delays in decision making.”

    The NAR forecast in four major commercial sectors analyses quarterly data for various tracked metro areas.  The sectors are the office, industrial, retail and multifamily markets.  Metro data were provided by Torto Wheaton Research and Real Capital Analytics.

    Office Market
    The office sector is the most favored by investors, with strong rent growth this year.  The cost of steel and other factors have helped minimize speculative construction in most markets.  The demand for space is expected to remain strong into 2008, and areas with strong job growth are benefiting the most.  Older vacated space is lagging on the market in some cities.

    Office vacancies are projected to edge up to an average of 12.9 percent in the fourth quarter from 12.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006, and then dip to 12.4 percent by the end of 2008.  Annual rent growth in the office sector is forecast at 6.1 percent in 2007 and 3.1 percent next year, after rising 5.2 percent in 2006.

    Projections for the third quarter show areas with the lowest office vacancies include New York City; Ventura County, Calif.; Seattle; Los Angeles; Honolulu; and Long Island, N.Y., all with vacancy rates of 9.4 percent or less.

    Net absorption of office space in 57 markets tracked, which includes the leasing of new space coming on the market as well as space in existing properties, should total 53.8 million square feet this year and 65.1 million in 2008, compared with 78.0 million last year.

    Office building transaction volume in the first seven months of this year totaled $147.0 billion, a record for the period, which is 53 percent higher than the same period in 2006.  Equity funds accounted for 43 percent of office building purchases, followed by private investors at 21 percent.

    Industrial Market 
    Although the main driver for the industrial market continues to be the need for warehouse and distribution space, particularly in ports and distribution hubs, the rebirth of the technology sector is fueling demand for flex space, with a marked increase in markets such as San Jose, Calif.; Portland, Ore.; Seattle and Phoenix.

    Much of the new industrial supply has been on a build-to-suit basis, and building obsolescence remains a factor for distribution facilities.  With tightening availability in many primary markets, users are starting to show greater interest in secondary markets.

    Vacancy rates in the industrial sector are likely to average 9.6 percent in the fourth quarter and 9.4 percent by the end of 2008, compared with 9.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006.  Annual rent growth will more than double to 3.9 percent by the end of this year, and is estimated at 3.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, up from a 1.4 percent annual rise at the end of last year.

    The areas with the lowest industrial vacancies include Los Angeles; Albuquerque; Tucson; Orange County, Calif.; Portland, Ore.; and San Francisco, all with vacancy rates of 5.4 percent or less.

    Net absorption of industrial space in 58 markets tracked will probably total 125.0 million square feet in 2007 and 165.6 million next year, down from 202.8 million in 2006.

    Industrial transaction volume in the first seven months of 2007 was $26.8 billion, up 13 percent from the same period in 2006.  Private investors accounted for 36 percent of industrial purchases, followed by equity funds at 25 percent.

    Retail Market
    Recovery in the retail market has been held back by high levels of new supply, but developers appear to have gotten the message.  The majority of new space on the market today is in non-regional malls, but new available space should see marked declines in 2008.  Credit problems have not yet impacted retail sales, but will be watched closely.

    Vacancy rates in the retail sector are expected to rise to 9.3 percent in the fourth quarter from 8.1 percent at the end of 2006; vacancies are forecast at 8.9 percent by the end of next year.  Average retail rent is projected to rise 2.9 percent in 2007 and 1.0 percent next year, following a 3.9 percent increase in 2006.

    Retail markets with the lowest vacancies include San Francisco; Orange County, Calif.; San Jose, Calif.; Ventura County, Calif.; Washington, D.C.; and Las Vegas, all with vacancy rates of 5.1 percent or less.

    Net absorption of retail space in 53 tracked markets should be 12.1 million square feet this year and 19.0 million in 2008, up from 10.7 million last year.

    Retail transaction volume in the first seven months of this year totaled $37.4 billion, up from $22.3 billion in same period in 2006.  Private investors accounted for 35 percent of transaction volume, followed by institutional investors at 22 percent and foreign investors, 18 percent.

    Multifamily Market
    The apartment rental market – multifamily housing – anecdotally appears to be impacted by an influx of single-family homes being offered for rent, cutting into the demand for apartment rentals.  In addition, condos are being converted into rental units, particularly in markets such as Washington, D.C., and several areas of Florida.

    At the same time, potential first-time home buyers are hesitant and staying in the rental market, supporting multifamily fundamentals until the lure of homeownership returns, the housing cycle changes and more buyers enter the housing market.

    Multifamily vacancy rates are likely to average 5.9 percent in the fourth quarter, the same as the fourth quarter of 2006, and then ease to 5.6 percent by the end of next year.  Average rent is expected increase 2.9 percent this year and 3.8 percent in 2008, after a 4.1 percent rise last year.

    Multifamily net absorption will probably total 209,200 units in 59 tracked metro areas this year, down from 229,400 in 2006, but increase to 234,400 in 2008.

    The areas with the lowest apartment vacancies include Northern New Jersey, Salt Lake City, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Los Angeles, Minneapolis and Nashville, all with vacancy rates of 2.7 percent or less.

    Multifamily transactions in the first seven months of this year totaled $46.3 billion, compared with $41.5 billion in the same period in 2006.  Half of the purchases were by private investors, while condo converters accounted for only three percent of acquisitions.

    The COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK is published by the NAR Research Division for the Realtors® Commercial Alliance.  The RCA, formed by NAR in 1999, serves the needs of the commercial market and the commercial constituency within NAR, including commercial members; commercial committees, subcommittees and forums; commercial real estate boards and structures; and NAR affiliate organizations. 

    Organizations in the RCA include the CCIM Institute, the Institute of Real Estate Management, the Realtors® Land Institute, the Society of Industrial and Office Realtors®, and the Counselors of Real Estate.  The RCA also provides commercial products and services.

    Nearly 140,000 NAR members offer commercial services, and 73,000 of those are currently members of the RCA.

    The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.


    Senate Moves FHA Reform Legislation to Help Homeowners
    WASHINGTON, September 19, 2007 - 

    The National Association of REALTORS® commended Senate Banking Chairman Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., Sen. Mel Martinez, R-Fla., and Sen. Richard Shelby, R-Ala., for their demonstrated leadership in protecting the interests of America’s current and future homeowners by passing FHA reform legislation today.

    "The Senate Banking Committee's passage of the Building American Homeownership Act of 2007 will offer home buyers a safer alternative to riskier mortgage products and will help many homeowners who may be facing foreclosures," said NAR President Pat V. Combs. "As the leading advocate for expanding homeownership opportunities and protecting consumers in the real estate transaction, NAR applauds this progress."

    "As adjustable subprime loans reset, some homeowners are faced with payments they can no longer afford," said Combs, of Grand Rapids, Mich., and vice president of Coldwell Banker-AJS-Schmidt. "A reformed FHA is positioned to provide a safer mortgage alternative for borrowers and help bring stability to local markets and economies."

    NAR has long supported FHA modernization legislation that would increase loan limits, reduce or eliminate the statutory 3 percent minimum cash down payment, allow FHA increased flexibility and give the agency the ability to streamline certain programs, in addition to strengthening its loss mitigation program. 

    "FHA can once again lead the way in providing safe loan products and preventing foreclosures by authorizing lenders to help borrowers who are in default. This will make a substantial difference for many families that may otherwise face foreclosure," Combs said.

    NAR is especially pleased with the increase in FHA mortgage loan limits. "This will help first-time home buyers, minority buyers, and others who could not qualify for conventional mortgages. Increased loan limits will also help people living in high-cost areas, because low FHA limits currently make FHA-insured mortgages unavailable to many of these families," said Combs.

    "The universal and consistent availability of FHA loan products has made mortgage insurance accessible to individuals regardless of their race, ethnicity or social status during periods of prosperity and economic depression, allowing higher risk, yet creditworthy borrowers to get prime financing," Combs said. "A strong and viable FHA is important to a robust and vital housing market. The Senate Banking Committee took quick action today in passing this important legislation, after the full House passed FHA reform legislation yesterday. We are hopeful that both Houses of Congress will meet soon to finalize and enact FHA reform this year."

    The National Association of REALTORS®, "The Voice for Real Estate," is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.


    Wells Fargo Bank Lowers Prime Rate to 7.75 Percent
    San Francisco — September 18, 2007
    Wells Fargo Bank, N.A., said today it is lowering its prime rate from 8.25 percent to 7.75 percent, effective today, Sept. 18, 2007.

     

    Wells Fargo & Company is a diversified financial services company with $540 billion in assets, providing banking, insurance, investments, mortgage and consumer finance through almost 6,000 stores and the internet (wellsfargo.com) across North America and internationally. Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. is the only bank in the U.S., and one of only two banks worldwide, to have the highest credit rating from both Moody’s Investors Service, "Aaa,” and Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, “AAA.”

    Fed Lowers Rates - Press Release

    Release Date: September 18, 2007

    For immediate release

     

    The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 50 basis points to 4-3/4 percent.

    Economic growth was moderate during the first half of the year, but the tightening of credit conditions has the potential to intensify the housing correction and to restrain economic growth more generally.  Today’s action is intended to help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets and to promote moderate growth over time. 

    Readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year.  However, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain, and it will continue to monitor inflation developments carefully. 

    Developments in financial markets since the Committee’s last regular meeting have increased the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook.  The Committee will continue to assess the effects of these and other developments on economic prospects and will act as needed to foster price stability and sustainable economic growth.

    Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Charles L. Evans; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; William Poole; Eric Rosengren; and Kevin M. Warsh.  

    In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 50-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 5-1/4 percent.  In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Cleveland, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, and San Francisco.

     


    50-year mortgage hits the market
    Lenders have begun offering a half-century home loan as incentive in face of record-high home prices, rising interest rates, report says.

    NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - As home prices and interest rates keep rising, lenders have figured out a way to keep the dream alive for millions of people who want to own their own home. It's called the 50-year mortgage.

    According to a report Wednesday in USA Today, a handful of small lenders have begun offering 50-year adjustable-rate loans to buyers who need to keep payments low in the current economic environment.

    Most banks already offer 40-year mortgages, which account for about 5 percent of all home loans, the report said.

    "One of the biggest things in California is the high costs of homes. With rates going up, there's demand from customers (for) longer loans," Alex Diaz Jr., with Statewide Bancorp in Rancho Cucamonga, Calif., was quoted in the report as saying.

    Statewide, which introduced its 50-year loan in March, has already received about 220 applications, Diaz said, according to the report.

    The 50-year mortgage also signals that the cooling real estate market is heating up competition among lenders, the newspaper said.

    "Mortgage lenders are getting craftier to get the attention of consumers," Anthony Hsieh, CEO of LendingTree, told the newspaper.

    But he added that consumers first need to understand the product.

    Two issues to keep in mind: A borrower with the 50-year mortgage builds equity very slowly. And because rates on the loans are adjustable, a borrower's monthly payments could rise, the report said.

    Mortgage experts caution that the 50-year mortgage is best-suited for those who plan to stay in their home for about five years, while the loan's interest rate remains fixed, the report said.

    "If you're going to be there for more than five years, you're gambling," Marc Savitt of the consumer protection committee for the National Association of Mortgage Brokers told the newspaper. "You don't know what interest rates are going to be. I wouldn't do it."

    The report of the new 50-year loan comes as the signs mount that the nation's real estate market is cooling.


    10 Tips: Beat today's real estate market
    Whether you're buying, selling, staying put or flipping, these strategies can help you maximize your gains.
    By Ellen Florian Kratz, FORTUNE writer

    NEW YORK (FORTUNE Magazine) - It never pays to get caught up in group hysteria, especially when it comes to real estate.

    Conditions vary from town to town, and no national statistics can give you a clear picture of what's happening in your neighborhood. So don't let headlines spook you into making a costly mistake.

    Even simple steps can make a big difference in the price you buy or sell for.

    The following stories offer advice that will help you make sure you're getting the best possible deal.

     

     

    Plus: 7 real estate 'dead' zones...5 'danger' zones


    Countdown to the Fed

    With the Fed meeting a day away, investors expect the central bank to lower interest rates. Alan Greenspan has his own thoughts about the economy. Talks between GM and its labor union take a break after weekend progress. Leap rejects a bid from rival wireless service provider MetroPCS.

    Investors have one day of trading to get through before tomorrow's Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

    The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 5%, but at least one observer is skeptical that a move by the Fed will help ease investors' jitters about the recent rocky stock market. "I'm not even sure good news from the Fed means we're out of the woods in terms of volatility," BlackRock investment strategist Bob Doll said to MarketWatch.com on Sunday.

     

    Stocks were down today, ahead of Tuesday's Fed meeting. At 11:35 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 50 points to 13,393. The Nasdaq Composite Index had fallen 25 points to 2,577, and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 10 points to 1,474.

    Greenspan wary about the economy

    Alan Greenspan is no longer chief of the Federal Reserve, but he still likes to be heard.

     

    Greenspan told CBS' (CBS, news, msgs) "60 Minutes" that he thinks the economy looks "pretty gloomy" and said "it's not clear yet" whether the recent turmoil will have a lasting negative impact on the economy.

    Greenspan also told "60 Minutes" that Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton is "very smart," but that his "tendency would be to vote Republican." Meanwhile, the former Fed boss -- who has been hitting the media trail to promote his new book, "The Age of Turbulence" -- told The Wall Street Journal that he "just may not vote," dismayed with both political parties.

     

    And he told CNBC's Maria Bartiromo in an interview that the recent jitters in the markets reminded him of the crash of 1987, but on a lesser scale. "There are very serious questions currently about a lot of the structured products that have gotten so sophisticated and so technical and so driven in price by internal models as distinct from market prices," Greenspan said, adding that "in certain areas, I think we have gone too far."

    However, the former Fed chief said, "the market will figure it out."

    Greenspan was Fed chief from 1987 through early 2006, when he passed the torch to Ben Bernanke.

    GM-UAW talks hit pause

    General Motors (GM, news, msgs) has taken a break from negotiating with the United Auto Workers about their contract, which expired Friday. The two sides had made some steps Sunday night and have so far averted a labor strike.

     

     

    One of the biggest sticking points has been health-care expenses for retired workers -- GM's medical costs for retirees add up to a whopping $50 billion.

    The UAW is hoping to hammer out a deal with GM and then use that agreement as a model as it moves on to Ford Motor (F, news, msgs) and DaimlerChrysler (DAI, news, msgs).

    Throughout the U.S. auto industry, UAW contracts cover more than 180,000 auto workers and nearly 420,000 retired workers.

    Leap rejects offer

    Apparently, $4.7 billion is not good enough for wireless service provider Leap Wireless (LEAP, news, msgs).

     

    Leap late Sunday rejected a $4.7 billion unsolicited offer from rival provider MetroPCS Communications (PCS, news, msgs), saying the offer was too low. MetroPCS made its bid earlier this month, in a move to create a nationwide service provider.

    "The contacts we have had with a number of Leap's shareholders indicate that they want to see a combination of our two companies happen without unnecessary delay," MetroPCS Chief Executive Officer Roger Linquist said in a news release Sunday. "It appears that Leap's board is ignoring the will of its shareholder base."

    Leap CEO S. Douglas Hutchenson wrote in a letter to Linquist that MetroPCS' offer was "completely inadequate."

     

    Shares of MetroPCS rose 12 cents to $25.22 in morning trading; shares of Leap were down 75 cents, or 1%, to $73.57.

    Qatar in deal with Nasdaq?

    Nasdaq Stock Market (NDAQ, news, msgs) might have an answer to its London Stock Exchange dilemma.

     

     

    The country of Qatar is interested in buying Nasdaq's 30% stake in the London Stock Exchange, according to The Wall Street Journal, which would allow Nasdaq to focus on its bid for Nordic stock exchange OMX.

    Nasdaq is in a bidding war for OMX with Bourse Dubai, and a sale of its LSE stake would provide much-needed funds for a sweetened bid. Nasdaq has had trouble unloading its stake in the London exchange, because it is only a minority interest.

    Nasdaq's stake in the LSE is worth approximately $1.72 billion, the paper reported.

    AOL moves to the Big Apple

    Time Warner (TWX, news, msgs) is moving its AOL unit to New York City from Dulles, Va., in an effort to focus on the advertising business.

     

    AOL recently bought a number of advertising companies to help boost interest in its new Platform A unit, which is designed to help target and measure advertising on the AOL Web site.

    "New York City is the center of advertising, so it makes perfect sense to locate our corporate headquarters here," AOL CEO Randy Falco said in a press release.

    By Elizabeth Strott


    The Fed should cut rates! No, it shouldn't!

    Here's why so many people think the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates on Tuesday. Not everyone agrees that a rate cut is appropriate.

    By Charley Blaine

    The calls for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates have morphed from polite talk to mob chanting since Sept. 7, when the Labor Department reported a surprising decline in payroll employment in August.

    Now the Fed is widely expected to cut its key rate from 5.25% to 5% or even 4.75%. The fed funds rate -- what banks charge each other for overnight loans -- has been at 5.25% since June 2006. The fed funds rate is what banks and other lenders use to price everything from business loans to credit card rates.

    Martin Feldstein, a former chairman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, believes the Fed should work the rate down to 4% or lower over the next 12 months.

    But not everyone wants a rate cut. So the argument will rage until the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee, the group that actually sets rates, gathers in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday.

    Here's how the debate breaks down.

    The case for a rate cut

    Supporters of a rate cut give four main reasons:

    The global credit system still needs help. A rate cut, the argument goes, would help ensure the credit system has enough cash to keep functioning. The system nearly froze up in August when many lenders balked at buying short-term debt like commercial paper, because lenders didn't trust what was being offered as security on the debt. The credit crunch quickly spread around the world.

    Problems in the housing and real-estate industries are spreading into the broader economy. Cutting rates would allow more people to buy homes at prices close to what sellers want. That would shore up lenders' finances and demand for new and existing homes. Housing starts are off about 30% from two years ago, while sales of existing homes are projected to be down about 8.6%. A slipping economy means fewer trips to Home Depot (HD, news, msgs), Lowe's (LOW, news, msgs) and other hardware stores, fewer furniture and appliance sales, and damage to state and local fees and tax revenues. The Wall Street Journal noted that the city of Sultan, Wash., had to lay off its janitor because building permit fees collapsed.

    The broader economy is slowing down. The domestic automobile industry is reeling from the combination of Japanese competition and the automakers' over-reliance on gas-guzzling vehicles for profit. Consumers increasingly are strapped amid higher prices and only limited gains in wages.

    Lenders need time to understand how bad their problems are. Wall Street investment houses made billions selling securities backed by pools of mortgages to investors around the world. The big unknown is whether the mortgages backing the pools are any good. Do Wall Street firms need to buy back the securities if the loans go bad?

    Why the Fed shouldn't cut rates

    Opponents of a cut also give a handful of reasons:

    It would bail out the stupids. The credit crunch of 2007 began with increasing defaults of mortgages made to people with little or no credit histories. Critics say that was stupid lending and that those who are responsible should be held accountable.

    It would boost inflation. A rate cut by the Fed will come as central banks around the world are raising rates or at least keeping them steady. That trend has cut the value of the U.S. dollar, which has set record lows against the euro. It has also caused sellers of key commodities to boost prices to maintain their purchasing power. It's no fluke that gold jumped over $700 this week and that crude oil traded over $80 a barrel for the first time ever.

     

    The U.S. economy isn't that weak. Yes, housing and real estate are weak, but, critics say, speculation in state likes Florida, Arizona, Nevada and California was totally out of hand. Yes, the automobile business is a mess. But U.S. manufacturing overall is still very strong -- just ask Boeing (BA, news, msgs). The service economy is still quite strong -- McDonald's said its same-store sales in August were up more than 8%.

    If anything, the global economy may be too strong. The economies in China, India and elsewhere in Asia are booming, fueling superstrong demand for commodities and finished goods. Cutting rates would be like throwing lighter fuel on an open fire.

    Some financial pain is necessary. Just as tech stocks became grotesquely overpriced in the late 1990s, so, too, did residential real estate in the first six years of the New Millennium, thanks to ridiculously cheap money and the growing belief in minimal risk. The excesses, as Bank of England Gov. Mervyn King said this week, need to be cleaned out, and he signaled he has no intention of standing in the way of that process.


    Countrywide, the mortgage mess and you

    As questions swirl around the nation's largest provider of home loans, we answer common questions that consumers have about the lending crisis.

    By Bankrate.com

    It has been a difficult year for mortgage lenders.

    The subprime market went into a tailspin in February and March. A classic credit squeeze developed in late July, brought on by fears that jumbo and nontraditional mortgages might end up having higher-than-expected delinquency rates. Investors in mortgage-backed securities suddenly realized they didn't know exactly how much their investments were worth -- but they suspected that they had overpaid.

    The nation's biggest mortgage lender, Countrywide Financial (CFC, news, msgs), was caught up in the uncertainty. An analyst for Merrill Lynch (MER, news, msgs) on Aug. 15 wrote that Countrywide might face so much financial pressure that it might lead to "an effective insolvency."

    (On Monday, the Wall Street Journal reported that Countrywide had begun laying off staff, citing an internal e-mail sent Friday to employees of a Countrywide division that handles many Alt-A customers, who typically cannot qualify for a traditional prime-rate loan. The company employs 61,000 people.)

    "If liquidations occur in a weak market, then it is possible for Countrywide to go bankrupt," wrote Merrill Lynch analyst Kenneth Bruce.

    When the words "Countrywide" and "bankrupt" appear in the same sentence -- even as a hypothetical -- people take notice. (Countrywide didn't respond to a request for comment.)

     

    Here are some common questions consumers have, and some answers.

    Why should I care about Countrywide's fate?

    Countrywide is the nation's biggest mortgage lender. It funded $39 billion in mortgage loans in July.

    It's also the largest or next-largest loan servicer. The servicer is the company you send your monthly mortgage payment to. It then distributes the money to pay the principal, interest, taxes and insurance.

    Americans owe about $13 trillion in mortgages, and Countrywide services about $1.4 trillion of that. So a significant percentage of mortgage-paying homeowners send a check to Countrywide every month.

    Wells Fargo (WFC, news, msgs) services about $1.4 trillion in mortgages, too. Wells Fargo isn't in any financial trouble.

    What sort of problems does Countrywide have?

     

    For the most part, Countrywide doesn't keep the mortgages it underwrites to borrowers. The lender sells the mortgages to investors who form the loans into pools, then issue bonds called mortgage-backed securities. When Countrywide sells closed mortgages, it gets the cash it needs to lend to additional borrowers. That's how it can pump out $39 billion or more in loans every month -- by selling its loans and keeping the money flowing in. The flow of money is called liquidity.

    In the last few weeks, investors have pretty much stopped buying loans from Countrywide because investors lost confidence in their own ability to figure out how much the loans are worth. Defaults and foreclosures are rising, making it difficult to price loan pools correctly.

    "The entire issue here is there's total uncertainty about the value of mortgage-backed securities (MBS)," says Dick Lepre, senior loan consultant for Residential Pacific Mortgage in San Francisco. "Nobody knows the value of MBS. Period. Nobody."

     

    With no one buying Countrywide's loans, the flow of money is cut off. Liquidity dries up. Creditors have raised the interest rates that Countrywide has to pay on short-term debt. The Merrill Lynch note floating the possibility Countrywide could end up in bankruptcy put added pressure on the company, which says it has ample liquidity.

    I'm supposed to close on a Countrywide mortgage in just a few days or weeks. Should I worry?

    The answer to this question depends upon whom you ask, how soon you plan to close the loan and what type of mortgage you're getting.

    If in the next couple of days you're getting a plain-vanilla, fixed-rate, conforming ($417,000 or less) mortgage and you're fully documenting your income, you almost surely don't have to worry about Countrywide's problems causing a delay or cancellation of your closing.

    What if you're a week and a half or more from your closing date with a Countrywide loan? Most experts say that you shouldn't worry at all if you're getting a plain-vanilla, conforming loan. Christopher Cruise, a loan officer trainer and industry observer, reluctantly disagrees. "If it was two days, maybe," he says. "But the way this is accelerating . . . it's moving so fast, that if it's not closing with Countrywide in the next couple of days, I'd ask the broker to shift it to Bank of America (BAC, news, msgs) or Wells Fargo. I only say this because Countrywide says the liquidity is just not there."

    Lepre says: "It behooves everybody out there who's getting a loan to get funding from a lender who will close the loan. How do you do that? I guess my first take would be to say you want to do business with a lender that isn't depending on selling this mortgage to somebody else in the present environment."

    And that means it's safer to get a mortgage from a bank that accepts deposits and thus has another source of liquidity. Lepre doesn't name names, but Cruise mentioned two of them: Bank of America and Wells Fargo. Washington Mutual (WM, news, msgs) is another, and there are dozens of regional banks, such as National City (NCC, news, msgs) and SunTrust Banks (STI, news, msgs), that underwrite mortgages.

    If you're getting a mortgage (from Countrywide or another lender) that's for more than the $417,000 conforming limit, or has a complexity such as stated income, you'd better act fast, Cruise says.

    "Hold your breath and see if you can move the closing up," he advises. "Provide whatever documents. Take a quarter-point hit in the rate. Do whatever you can to get it closed before the window closes. Deal with what clearly is an overreaction here, but just get that sucker closed."

    Dan Green, mortgage planner with Mobium Mortgage in Chicago, says: "If you're worried that the money won't be at your closing because the lender closed its doors, put in a phone call to somebody that can give you a strong referral to a loan officer who can help you."

    You want a referral to someone who has been in the business for several years, Green says, because inexperienced brokers and loan officers aren't familiar with the wide array of available loan products. "For a very long time, you only needed your primary colors," he says. "But now you need to use all 64 colors in your crayon box. There are still plenty of products out there -- plenty of people buying homes, still being approved. It just requires more knowledge from the loan officer to make it happen."

    Countrywide services my mortgage. Should I worry?

     

    "I don't think anybody should worry about where they're sending their check," Lepre says. "Worrying about who you send your payments to -- that's meaningless."

    An economist for a large mortgage-industry player agrees. "Customers shouldn't really encounter any major issues," he says.

    Countrywide's servicing rights are worth a lot of money. If Countrywide were to seek bankruptcy protection, it's possible that creditors would insist that it sell some or all of its mortgage-servicing rights. If the entire portfolio of servicing rights were sold, it could turn into a logistical nightmare. Buyers of servicing rights would receive tractor-trailers packed with paper and reel-to-reel tapes. They would have to match Countrywide's data on the tapes to their own databases.

    "This is uncharted territory," Cruise says. "This is Columbus leaving the coast of Spain, headed for India -- and America comes up."

    Countrywide says it services 8.8 million mortgages. If all of those mortgage-servicing rights were transferred, and just 1% ended up having problems, it would inconvenience 88,000 customers.

     

    "I'd watch the escrow account like a hawk," Cruise says. "Just make sure the money is going into the insurance and the tax authority -- where it's supposed to go."

    This all sounds alarming. Should I be alarmed?

    Don't be fearful. Be watchful. Countrywide has been well managed over the years, or else it wouldn't have grown into the biggest mortgage lender. Even if it were to declare bankruptcy -- a big if -- that doesn't mean it would shut its doors. It probably would continue to operate while it got its affairs in order.

    This article was reported and written by Holden Lewis for Bankrate.com.


    Mortgage mess claims new victims

    Bracing for a flood of layoffs: The 21,000 job cuts this month in the housing and finance industries almost equal the number for all of 2006.

    By Christian Science Monitor

    Just a few years ago, mortgage salesman Terry Orlowski rode the housing boom and a six-figure income down to the car dealership and bought a new Audi A6.

    Now, the soaring market and the fast car are gone. Last week he lost his job, along with 6,000 other employees of First Magnus Financial, a mortgage lender. Now driving a 1999 Dodge Grand Caravan, he plans to move back in temporarily with his ex so their two children can stay in private school.

    "My first thought was this was one of the bigger companies. No one is safe," Orlowski says.

    The flood of layoffs -– some 21,000 since the beginning of the month in the real-estate, construction and mortgage-lending industries -– is one way the Federal Reserve can see real impact on the economy from the turmoil in the markets.

    It's not just guys in hard hats looking for work; it's also white-collar workers.

    Many of these jobs in finance and real estate are relatively high-paying, which has helped car dealerships and high-end retailers. To be sure, all sorts of jobs are affected, because when a house changes hands, a small army of brokers, appraisers, pest-control inspectors, title searchers and lawyers send out invoices.

    "Unlike a lot of other businesses, real estate is everywhere," says economist Bob Brusca of Fact & Opinion Economics in New York. "Even if this turns out to be small potatoes in one place, it has a fairly big impact."

    A simple real estate transaction can involve up to 20 people, says Steve Walsh, president of Scout Mortgage in Scottsdale, Ariz. "An escrow officer may make $1,000, the county recorder gets a few hundred, the appraiser makes $300 to $400, the termite man $50 to $100 and there are movers and landscapers and decorators."

    Walsh says his accountant told him of some real-estate agents who had been making $200,000 a year but are down to a $15,000 income. He says his firm, with business down 40%, has cut staff, too.

    'It's only going to get worse'

    For many companies, it's not a select few who are being let go. Instead, entire divisions or even the entire company is shutting its doors. On Wednesday, Accredited Home Lenders (LEND, news, msgs) in San Diego said it would eliminate 1,600 jobs -- about two-thirds of its work force. On Monday, Capital One Financial (COF, news, msgs) in McLean, Va., announced it would ax an entire mortgage division of 1,900 people.

     

    The 21,000 layoffs that the real-estate and related industries have announced so far this month almost equal the number for all last year -– 22,814.

    "It's only going to get worse," says John Challenger, CEO of Challenger, Gray & Christmas. "It's already much worse for the year than last year."

    Last week, First Magnus announced it would let go 99% of its 6,000 employees. That implosion, which swept away Orlowski's job in Arvada, Colo., also wiped out Ron Gapp's role as vice president and the 600 positions under his on the West Coast.

    "Everyone was panicking," recalls Gapp, a 33-year industry veteran of Rancho Cucamonga, Calif. "I said, 'Don't count us out. We'll be back.' That's my dream."

    Hedge funds, others pick up the slack

    The layoffs sweeping the mortgage-brokerage industry are not surprising to Wayne Archer, a professor of finance, insurance and real estate at the University of Florida in Gainesville. "The business has always been extremely volatile," he says, adding that it has often attracted people with less-than-stellar credentials.

     

    So far, in terms of actual numbers, the damage is not at the same level as the dot-com crash, when the layoffs helped drive the economy into a recession. "By way of contrast, this is a slow leak in a balloon," says Challenger.

    But at the same time the industry has been laying off people, it has also been hiring them. In the past year, 120,000 jobs have been created, Brusca says.

    In an e-mail, Jim Buckmaster, CEO of Craigslist, says online ads for both finance and real-estate jobs reached an all-time high last week.

    Some of those hiring are hedge funds, commercial banks, private-equity groups, mutual funds and even some mortgage companies, according to Doug Rickart, a division director in Minneapolis for Robert Half International. "A sector struggling does not mean the sector comes to a screeching halt," he says.

    In fact, the real-estate business has long been filled with entrepreneurs, and the current situation has just forced them to find new ways to make money. That's the case for Certified Termite Inspections in Sacramento, Calif.

    "We're doing a lot of the foreclosure homes, so it's not as bad for us," says Jamie Rivera. "We've just switched which type of real-estate business we're in."

    A lot like Wall Street

    For others, it means more time in the car. Appraiser John Simms of Peoria, Ariz., says he'll travel as far as Flagstaff, some 145 miles away. "The work is still there. It's just not as plentiful," he says.

     

    For others, the downturn is really pinching their pockets. "Right now, I have no income," says Cole McNally, whose real-estate photography business is in Auburn, Calif. "I've been advertising and putting fliers up. I've been pushing things on the Internet, (but) I've really seen no hits."

    The layoffs remind some of the roller-coaster jobs situation on Wall Street. "When the market is down, you lay off the traders hired during the bull market. It's a normal boom-and-bust cycle for some industries," says Ken Goldstein, an economist at the Conference Board, a business research organization in New York.

    In fact, many real estate veterans have steeled themselves for these times, buying big items in boom times only when they could pay cash. Younger workers see why. "I'm wiser now," says Orlowski. "When you reap, you save. When the harvest is plenty, you learn to live on less to weather you through these times."

    This article was reported and written by Ron Scherer and Ben Arnoldy for The Christian Science Monitor. Material from Reuters was used in this report.


    Countrywide financing helps set off a big rally

    The Dow jumps more than 151 points as big-cap stocks rally. Countrywide Financial shares soar on news of new financing. GM jumps on an upgrade. McDonald's 50% dividend boost may cause others to follow suit. Crude oil closes above $80.

    Stocks, especially large-capitalization stocks, were shooting higher today, led by big gains for General Motors (GM, news, msgs), Countrywide Financial (CFC, news, msgs), McDonald's (MCD, news, msgs) and Target (TGT, news, msgs).

    The gains came even though crude oil closed above $80 a barrel for the first time ever.

    GM was up more than 8.5% to $32.82 after a Citigroup analyst upgraded the stock to "buy." Countrywide, the nation's largest mortgage lender, jumped about 9.8% to $18.08 after it announced $12 billion of new financing. McDonald's shot up 6.4% to $54.47 after boosting its dividend 50%.

    Target added 2.8% to $64.46 amid news that it might sell its credit card business, which has $7 billion in receivables.

    At 2:55 p.m. ET, the Dow Jones industrials had jumped 151 points, or 1.1%, to 13,442. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up about 15 points, or 0.9%, to 1,486, while the Nasdaq Composite Index showed only a 0.5% gain, or 16 points, to 2,608.

    Crude had bounced around $80 all day and finally closed at $80.09 after Hurricane Humberto knocked out power at three oil refineries in Port Arthur, Texas. But traders still see crude falling back once hurricane season eases.

    GM was the Dow leader and second in the S&P 500, behind Countrywide. McDonald's was second among 30 Dow stocks and third among S&P 500 stocks.

    Much of the buying was the result of traders who didn't want to be short in advance of the Federal Reserve's meeting on Tuesday. The Fed is widely expected to cut its federal funds rate from 5.25%, where it's been for a year, to 5% or lower.

    The gains were broad, with 27 Dow stocks and more than360 S&P 500 stocks higher this afternoon.

    What's not to like about the rally?

    There were two modest downsides to today's rally.

     

    First, volume was light again with New York Stock Exchange volume on track for possibly 1.3 billion shares. Nasdaq volume might hit 1.7 billion shares.

    Techs were weak, in part because of Alcatel-Lucent (ALU, news, msgs), one of the biggest telecommunications companies, said its third-quarter operating profit would be about break even. The company said talks with wireless companies suggest they will be trimming back capital spending for the rest of the year. Alcatel was down 8.4% to $9.20.

    Tech stocks overall were weak with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down slightly at 489.60. Chip giant Intel (INTC, news, msgs) was off 0.6% to 25.30, one of three Dow stocks to show a loss today. The Amex Networking Index ($NWX.X) fell 1.7% to $291.11. Cisco Systems was down 0.4% to $31.60.

    Countrywide shores up finances

    Investors were delighted that Countrywide was able to attract more financing. The move "should substantially address funding concerns," Credit Suisse analyst Moshe Orenbuch said in a research note.

     

     

    The financing is all secured financing, made necessary because the company has been largely been unable to sell unsecured commercial paper to fund its mortgages.

    Stock Charts (Year)

    Countrywide Financial
    Graphical chart for CFC
    Lehman Bros.
    Graphical chart for LEH

    Countrywide's announcement included the disclosure that its mortgage business is shrinking. The company said it also funded $34.4 billion in mortgages in August, down 17% from a year ago. Its pipeline of unclosed mortgages fell 16.8% from July to $51.8 billion.

     

    "The company's recent actions to secure additional funding, as well as the migration of funding its originations through the (Countrywide Bank) thrift

     

    Last month, Countrywide received a $2 billion infusion from Bank of America (BAC, news, msgs), which could eventually give the second-largest U.S. bank a one-sixth stake in the lender.

    On Wednesday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson urged Countrywide Chief Executive Angelo Mozilo and other mortgage officials to help borrowers who took out adjustable-rate loans that have rates which are resetting to higher levels.

    Countrywide's rally helped prompt a rally in financial stocks generally. The Select Sector SPDR Financial (XLF, news, msgs) exchange-traded fund, designed to mirror the financial sector of the S&P 500, was up 1.5% to $33.81, the best among the nine SPDR ETFs. The Amex Securities Broker/Dealer Index ($XBD.X) jumped 2.4% to 225.

    Lehman Bros. (LEH, news, msgs), which has had a heavy exposure to the problems in the mortgage markets, was up 4.8% to $59.82. Citigroup (C, news, msgs) was up 1.3% to $46.34. JPMorgan Chase (JPM, news, msgs) added 2.5% to $45.58.

    Analyst sees GM successful in labor negotiations

    GM shares moved up after Citigroup analyst Itay Michaeli, in a client note assuming coverage of the stock from another analyst, lifted his rating all the way to "buy" from "sell" and bumped his target price to $41 from $27.

     

    Nevertheless, Michaeli said GM is currently not a buy-and-hold stock, since the company's long-term turnaround is "heavily tied to the outcome of this fall's labor negotiation."

    Stock Charts (Year)

    General Motors
    Graphical chart for GM

    But signs have been encouraging, and the upgrade helped shares of Ford Motor (F, news, msgs) move up 5.6% to $7.92.

     

    Separately, shares of drug giant Merck (MRK, news, msgs) moved up 0.7% to $50 after analyst Chris Schott of Banc of America Securities upgraded the stock to "buy" from "neutral," saying its new drug candidates will be approved and that sales of its diabetes drug Januvia and HPV treatment Gardasil are getting stronger.

    McDonald's big dividend increase

    McDonald's boosted its dividend to $1.50 a share as part of a plan to up to $17 billion to shareholders through 2009. The dividend is payable Dec. 3 to shareholders of record on Nov. 15.

     

    The new payout brings McDonald's dividend yield to 2.9%, well above the average dividend yield of 0.98% for companies in the Standard & Poor's Consumer Discretionary index.

     

    McDonald's yearly dividend is now more than six times what it was in 2002, the year before the company launched an aggressive turnaround that included putting the brakes on its rapid expansion and focusing on improving results at existing locations with new menu items, extended hours and cashless payments.

    That effort has revitalized sales and profits and helped triple its stock price since the beginning of 2003.

    Stock Charts (Year)

    McDonald's
    Graphical chart for MCD

    One investor said McDonald's move may prompt other companies to return more cash to shareholders.

     

    "Institutional investors who have significant positions in other companies will probably remind those companies sitting on cash that they might be doing their shareholders a favor by accelerating share repurchases," Fred Dickson, director of retail research at D.A. Davidson & Co., told Reuters.

    Why Target may sell its credit card business

    Technically, Target says it is weighing strategic options for its $7 billion credit card portfolio. But Wall Street sees that as essentially putting the business up for sale.

     

    The timing is odd -- in the middle of a credit crunch. But JPMorgan analyst Charles Grom said in a research note that the decision may well have been the result of pressure by investor Bill Ackman, who recently bought 10% of the company.

    The portfolio has been mostly solid through the second quarter, he noted. As a result, he thinks it will generate a premium price.

     

    Coupled with a big stock buyback, it could boost earnings per share nicely, he said.

    A sign of an easing credit crunch?

    The decline in the U.S. commercial paper market slowed last week, as concerns eased that borrowers would be unable to repay their short-term debt.

     

    The $8.2 billion reduction, down from $31.3 billion a week earlier, signals the credit squeeze sparked by defaults on subprime mortgages may be easing. The freeze shut out borrowers such as Countrywide, Thornburg Mortgage (TMA, news, msgs) and GMAC. Issuers with the biggest chance of default had stopped trying to sell debt, Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak, told Bloomberg News.

    "Investors have already pushed out the weakest issuers," Crescenzi said. "The commercial paper that remains is a relatively more respected crop."

    Short-term debt maturing in 270 days or less fell to a seasonally adjusted $1.92 trillion in the period ended yesterday, including a $21.6 billion decline in asset-backed commercial paper, according to data released today by the Federal Reserve. Commercial paper outstanding has fallen $306.4 billion in five weeks.

    The slump is the longest since at least July and August 2003, when the amount of debt decreased by 1.5% over four weeks, Bloomberg noted. Asset-backed paper, which dropped 2.2% in the past week to $945.1 billion, declined $237.8 billion, or 21%, in the past five weeks.

    By Charley Blaine


    Government-Sponsored Enterprises Reform - Issue Summary
     

     According to the NAR

     

    What is the fundamental issue?

    The new Democratic-controlled Congress raises the prospect that GSE reform legislation may be adopted in 2007. Under the leadership of House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D-MA), the House has passed a bill to overhaul the regulatory oversight of the housing government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) -- Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Banks system (FHLBanks). The bill is a product of both bipartisan legislation considered in the 109th Congress and compromise agreements between House Democrats and the Department of the Treasury. The new legislation creates a strong, independent safety and soundness regulator with broad powers analogous to current banking regulators. Senate action is uncertain.

    I'm a REALTOR®.  What does this mean to my business?
    Housing and real estate account for nearly 20 percent of the national economy. The GSEs buttress the nation's housing finance system by assuring stability and liquidity in all housing markets allowing investors to fund mortgages regardless of the interest rate environment, or other factors affecting the economy. The GSEs represent a significant -- now more than $1.4 trillion -- federal subsidy that supports housing and homeownership.

    NAR Policy:
    NAR supports strengthening GSE financial safety and soundness regulation through an independent agency that recognizes and facilitates their unique corporate structures and public missions that assure stability and liquidity that in the nation’s housing finance system. NAR also supports the affordable housing and community development programs of the FHLBanks that provide alternative financing for Bank member credit unions, banks and thrifts. REALTORS® also support allowing regional adjustments to the maximum loan amounts (“conforming loan limits”) that the GSEs can purchase in high cost housing markets.

    Legislative/Regulatory Status/Outlook:
    On March 29, 2007, the House Financial Services Committee passed H.R. 1427 – GSE Reform Bill. Over the course of the two day mark-up, there were a number of amendments, the most significant for REALTORS® was an attempt by Representative Jeb Hensarling (R-TX) to eliminate the conforming loan limit provision in H.R. 1427, arguing that it would allow the GSEs to enter the luxury home finance market. NAR worked closely with Representative Gary Miller to defeat the Hensarling amendment by a vote of 10 (in support) and 51 (opposed to the amendment). On May 29, 2007, the U.S. House of Representatives passed H.R. 1427, the “Federal Housing Finance Reform Act of 2007,” by an overwhelming bipartisan vote of 313 to 104.

    President Announces New Foreclosure Initiative FHA Secure

    Article by the NAR

    On August 31, 2007, President Bush announced a new initiative called FHASecure, which will give the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) flexibility to help more families keep their homes in light of the decline of the subprime market and impending interest rate adjustments affecting numerous borrowers in both the subprime and Alt-A markets. The FHASecure program will help people who have not made all of their payments on time because of rising mortgage payments but who otherwise have good credit. The initiative is a temporary program requiring that loan applications be signed no later than December 31, 2008. On September 4, 2007, the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) released Mortgage Letter 2007-11 further detailing the program.

    The President called on Congress to change a key housing provision of the Federal Tax Code to ensure people are not penalized when they refinance their homes. Current tax law counts cancelled mortgage debt on primary residences as taxable income. The President then announced a foreclosure avoidance initiative to help homeowners refinance by working with housing counseling organizations. The President also pushed Congress to pass the broader FHA reform bill.

    NAR applauded President Bush’s statement of support for giving homeowners greater flexibility to refinance their loans through the FHA. At a white house conference call on the initiative, the administration specifically signaled out NAR for our timely support of the initiative. NAR has been advocating regulatory changes to the FHA program. On April 9, 2007, NAR sent a letter to Alphonso Jackson, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, asking that FHA waive the requirement that a homeowner’s mortgage be current to refinance into an FHA loan product. NAR also supports legislation that would give FHA greater flexibility by increasing loan limits, eliminating the statutory 3 percent minimum cash down payment, allowing FHA flexibility to provide risk-based pricing, and revising the condominium program.


    NAR Urges the Fed to Adopt Strong Regulations to Prevent Unfair, Deceptive, and Abusive Lending 

    Article by the NAR

    On August 15, 2007, NAR President Pat Combs sent a letter to the Federal Reserve Board (Fed) urging it to adopt strong regulations to prevent unfair, deceptive, and abusive lending practices in the mortgage markets. The letter is based on NAR’s subprime lending policy.

    NAR’s letter notes the current turmoil in the mortgage markets and suggests that a strong Fed rule could help reassure investors and borrowers and help stave off or recover from an unnecessary overreaction that could deny mortgage loans to borrowers who are willing and able to meet their mortgage obligations—whether prime, Alt-A, or subprime.

    The letter recommends that the Fed regulations:

    • Bar the use of prepayment penalties for all mortgages, or greatly minimize their use.
    • Require subprime lenders to require an escrow/reserve/impound account for the payment of insurance and taxes, as is typical for prime mortgages.
    • Limit the use of “stated income” or “low doc” underwriting for subprime loans, since practically all subprime borrowers are in a position to supply some type of documents for verifying their income and, therefore, qualify for a lower cost loan.
    • Require strong underwriting standards for all mortgage originators that include flexibility to accommodate borrowers with unique circumstances. For subprime loans, lenders should exercise more caution when underwriting loans that may result in a significant “payment shock” and adopt a policy to assure a reasonable debt-to-income ratio.
    • Require mortgage originators providing loans to refinance an existing mortgage to verify that the new loans provides a significant benefit to the borrower.
    • Require all institutional prime and subprime mortgage lenders (or servicers acting on their behalf) to report payment history of all borrowers to at least the three national credit bureaus on a monthly basis.
    • Require mortgage originators to offer borrowers one or more mortgages with interest rates and fees that appropriately reflect the borrower’s credit risk.

    The letter also urges the Fed to encourage the lending industry to expand the use of alternative creditor histories and to work with HUD to improve consumer disclosures under the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act (RESPA).


    Mixing Banking and Commerce:
    Bad for Consumers and Bad for the Economy

    Article by the NAR

    The U.S. economy depends in large part on the health of the banking and real estate industries.  Several regulatory actions that would allow banks in the real estate industry are putting our economy and the well-being of American consumers at risk.  These ill-considered moves would upend one our nation’s most fundamental economic policies – the separation of banking and commerce.  In return, we’re likely only to get bigger banks, higher costs, and less consumer choice and service. 

     

    Allowing Banks in Real Estate Hurts Competition and Hurts Consumers.  Regulations proposed by the Federal Reserve and Treasury would allow big banking conglomerates into real estate brokerage and property management.  If adopted, the regulations will lead to:

    • The same large-scale consolidation that has taken place in the banking industry itself.
    • Less competition, less choice, and higher costs for consumers.
    • Pressure on bank-affiliated real estate brokers and agents to market and sell financial products such as insurance, securities, and credit cards.
    • Banks sharing of private consumer data obtained in real estate transactions with their affiliates and third parties.
    • Unfair competitive advantages for banking conglomerates, which benefit from access to capital at lower rates--thanks to federally insured deposits--than local real estate companies.
    • According to a J.D. Power survey, 28 percent of homebuyers had problems with their lenders, such as errors in closing documents, miscommunication of loan terms and unavailable or unresponsive loan consultants or mortgage brokers.  If almost 1 in 3 homebuyers can’t get adequate customer service for their loan, how will they be served by banks during the much more complex process of buying or selling a home?

     

    Banks Are Special – Let’s Keep Them That Way.  Banks play a unique role in our financial system.  In response to the bank failures of the 1930’s, the federal government established federal deposit insurance.  As a trade-off, banks accepted comprehensive federal regulation and limitations on their eligible activities.  The S&L crisis of the 1980’s demonstrates the importance of strong federal rules keeping financial services separate from commercial activities.   

     

    • To avoid giving banks undue competitive advantages over nonbanking firms, Congress has established the national policy against mixing banking and commerce.  It’s simple, it’s straightforward, and it avoids the entanglements that dilute the clear mission of banks to provide and support a strong payment system and provide banking services that are essential to a healthy economy.
    • Allowing banks to enter the real estate brokerage industry is inconsistent with this policy and weakens the regulatory structure necessary to protect the federal deposit insurance fund, the payment system, and the U.S. economy.
    • Amid today’s rapid technical innovations and fast-moving markets, unintended and unforeseen consequences of expanding bank powers pose very real risks to the security and vitality of our economy.  We’ve experienced this before, and it’s been costly.  Loosening restrictions on the activities of federally insured depository institutions led to the S&L crisis of the 1980’s.  There’s no reason to risk a rerun of that $124 billion debacle. 

     

    Banks Want Consolidation of the Real Estate Industry into a Few Hands.  Large banking conglomerates are looking to assemble a few nationwide organizations to handle the very local business of buying and selling homes.  If this is successful, consumer interests will be on the back burner.

    • Bank-controlled real estate brokerages will most likely become marketing arms for  mortgage departments and other proprietary products and services banks sell, whether they are in the consumer’s interest or not.
    • The real estate industry, dominated by tens of thousands of small businesses, will lose its consumer service focus if banks are allowed to consolidate the industry.
    • Realtors® provide extensive personal attention to consumers during the lengthy process of buying or selling a home – banks simply can’t provide that type of personal counsel because of the inherent conflicts with their other business objectives.

     

    The American People Agree: Keep Banks Out.  According to a recent national survey conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, American consumers believe that bank-owned real estate brokerages will result in worse customer service, trample privacy through unrestricted access to private financial information, force them to pay more and higher fees, and cause serious conflicts of interest. According to survey results:

    • Americans believe consumers are going to be hurt by banks that own real estate brokerages and have access to home buyers’ and home sellers’ bank account and other financial information.*
    • Americans believe it would be a conflict of interest for a bank to offer and approve loans on homes that they were already involved in as a real estate broker (66% say true – 28% say false)*
    • Americans believe banks will pass on real estate costs to their account holders (64% say true – 29% say false)*

     

    * +/- 3.46% Margin of Error


    Find your unclaimed cash

    Mortgage applications rose 5.5% last week: MBA

    Paulson calls for expansion of mortgage products

    8 money moves you must make at 50

    Face it, you're getting older, so now is the time to make preparations for health changes and retirement.

    By Liz Pulliam Weston

    If you're turning the corner into your sixth decade, you've probably heard the jokes about getting older. The ones that start, "you know you're 50 when …":

    • The elevator is playing your favorite song.

     

    • Dinner and a movie are the whole date, not just the warm-up.

     

    • You look like the morning after and you haven't been anywhere.

     

    • You throw a party and the neighbors don't call the cops. In fact, they don't even realize you had a party.

     

    All the aches, pains and startling glimpses of that stranger in the mirror drive home the point: You're not going to live forever, and it's time to get serious about your future, financial and otherwise.

    The good news, for most 50-somethings, is that they're in their peak earning years. Many (but not all) are done with child-rearing, which leaves more money in the kitty for other goals, like retirement. Most are homeowners, and the recent boom years have added nicely to the typical 50-something's net worth.

     
    FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT: AGES 50-59  

    Median household income

    $60,586

    Median net worth

    $182,300

    Percent with home equity

    80.70%

    Percent with credit card debt

    50.30%

    Median amount owed on cards

    $2,700

    Percent with traditional pensions

    38.10%

    Percent with minor children

    40.30%

    Source: Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances, 2004

    But dangers abound. Inadequate savings or high debt levels can cripple retirement plans, as can illness, disability or layoffs (see "The hidden threats to your nest egg"). Poor planning, insufficient insurance protection and boomerang kids (adult children who return to live at home) pose additional risks. And by making some crucial decisions now, about timing your retirement or where you might live, you'll be better able to map out your plans.

    If you want to get yourself in the best financial shape possible at this milestone, take the following steps:

    Reconsider your career

    Most baby boomers say they want to work at least part time in retirement. Work can have social, emotional and, especially, economic benefits: The longer you're employed, the less you need to save for retirement.

     

    But what if you hate your job or your industry is downsizing rapidly? (Think airlines, newspapers and U.S. auto manufacturing.) You can wait to get fired, or you can figure out what you'd really like to do when you grow up, and to see if you can get there from here. A session with a career counselor could help; so could that venerable career changer's guide, Richard Nelson Bolles' "What Color is Your Parachute?"

    Beware the temptation to pitch it all and go back to school for years on borrowed money, however. You're unlikely to recoup the investment, and you could end up saddled with student loans in your 80s. If you need additional training, night school is usually the better bet. If you're dying to start your own business, do it as a sideline first to see if you can make your idea fly.

    Put retirement on the front burner

    Sure, you've got other obligations. You may still have kids to raise and educate (two out of five 50-something households include minor children), and your folks may need financial help as well.

    But saving for your retirement still needs to be your top priority. You're also close enough to the finish line now -- the median retirement age these days is 62 -- that you should begin to make definite plans about where you'll live, what you'll do and how much money you'll spend. If you don't have a specific age or date in mind, try several different scenarios using MSN Money's Retirement Planner. MSN Money's Retirement Expense Calculator can help you nail down the changes you can expect in your spending.

    If you're thinking about retiring before age 65, when Medicare coverage kicks in, consider your health insurance options:

    • Does your company offer retiree medical coverage? Many don't, and many of those that do are phasing out coverage.

     

    • Could you be covered under a spouse's workplace plan?

     

    • Would you be eligible for COBRA and/or HIPPAA continuation coverage?

     

    Under the 1986 Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act (COBRA), you can continue your employer's health insurance coverage for up to 18 months after you retire, as long as your employer offers health insurance and employs more than 20 people. You'll pay for the privilege: You must take over the whole premium (the portion you've been paying plus what your employer pays) and an additional 2% administrative charge.

    After the 18 months is up, the 1996 Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) guarantees your ability to buy private individual coverage without facing exclusions for pre-existing conditions, but again, this could be expensive. Ask your HR department for details.

    If you can't get COBRA coverage, you may need to buy an individual policy. These can be pricey, even if you opt for a high deductible, and may not be an option if you're in poor health or have a serious pre-existing condition.

    Other factors to consider: Will you sell your home and move, or tap the equity with a reverse mortgage? How will you spend your time and how much will it cost? (Golf and travel can be expensive pastimes.) Do you have long-term care coverage or will you need to set aside money to cover future care? Fidelity Investments estimates the typical couple at age 65 will need about $200,000 to cover long-term care costs.

    You also may want to use more detailed planning software, like the kind contained in Microsoft Money or Intuit's Quicken, to help you fine-tune your plan and include variables like inheritances, different retirement ages (if you're part of a couple) and downsizing to a smaller house. Consider scheduling a visit with a fee-only financial planner to get a second opinion. You can get referrals from the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors or the Garrett Planning Network.

    Accelerate debt repayment

    If you're behind on retirement savings, every extra dollar should go there. If you're in good shape, though, you might want to consider getting your debt, including your mortgage, paid off by the time you retire. That will allow you to live on less (or, conversely, spend more doing fun stuff, like travel).

     

    That credit card debt should be the first to go. Once you've paid off higher-rate, nondeductible debt, you can start adding a few bucks to every mortgage payment.

    Get your kids off the dole

    If they're out of school and not disabled, they should be economically independent. If they're still relying on you for sustenance, you're putting their financial future at risk as well as your own.

     

    Some of the saddest letters I get are from elderly parents whose adult children are still hitting them up for cash. If you need motivation and ideas, read "Should parents bail out their adult kids?"

    Review your life insurance needs

    If you've got minor children or other financial dependents, make sure they're adequately covered if you die prematurely.

     

    If the kids are out of college, the mortgage is paid off and your spouse doesn't need your income to survive, you may no longer need insurance. The exception: if you've got a large estate (over $2 million or so) and want coverage to help pay future estate taxes. If that's the case, hire an objective professional, like a fee-only financial planner, to evaluate your options.

    Review your other insurance

    Your earning power is still one of your greatest assets, and you'll want to protect it with disability insurance if you possibly can. See if your employer offers long-term disability coverage; if not, check out individual policies

    Also, make sure you have adequate liability insurance. Raise the liability limits on your homeowners' and auto insurance policies to the maximum, and consider adding a personal liability policy (also called an umbrella policy). As a rule of thumb, you should have liability coverage that's equal to one to two times your net worth.

    Long-term care insurance is the final piece of the puzzle. There's no consensus about the best time to buy -- insurance agents will insist you should have gotten it in your 40s, while Consumer Reports says most people should wait until they're 65. You should at least begin learning about the options in your 50s, however, and start investigating companies that offer it. You'll want an insurance company with extremely sound ratings, of course; check Weiss Ratings before signing up. You don't want to shovel tens of thousands of dollars into a company that won't be around when you need it.

    Schedule all those checkups

    Now that you're 50, you should be having physicals every year (Guys, that means you, too). Women need mammograms every one or two years and should ask about bone-density screening. Men need prostate exams and both sexes need to start screening (if they haven't already) for colorectal cancers, which may include sigmoidoscopy or colonoscopy.

     

    This isn't optional anymore, folks. Your risk for cancer and other serious conditions is rising as you age; you don't want to hear that you waited too long and it's too late for treatment.

    Join the AARP

    Actually, you probably won't need to pay your first year's dues -- because some wag will probably buy you your premiere membership as a gag gift. Laugh along, then start taking advantage of your AARP discounts on insurance, travel, entertainment, shopping and more.

     

    Liz Pulliam Weston's column appears every Monday and Thursday, exclusively on MSN Money. She also answers reader questions in the Your Money message board.


    Your 5-minute guide to credit scores

    A better score means a better deal from landlords, lenders, insurers and other creditors. Use these dozen-plus tips to boost yours.

    By MSN Money staff

    Your credit score is likely the most important three-digit number in your life.

    Your score affects how much you pay for credit, and it can affect other bills you pay, where you live and where you work.

    • Banks and credit card companies review your score when deciding whether to extend you credit and how much interest to charge. (See "What bad credit really costs you.")
    • A high score can lead to lower car- and home-insurance premiums, a deposit waiver from utility companies and a better service package from the cell-phone company. (See "5 people who check your credit.")
    • Many landlords check credit scores before allowing you to sign a lease. (See "Credit checks: A civil rights issue?")
    • Many employers -- 35% in 2003 -- are doing credit checks on prospective employees, particularly those who would deal with money. Employers need your written permission to make the check and must give you a chance to respond.

    With so much at stake, it's wise to find out where you stand and take steps to raise your score if it's below 700, particularly before you apply for a mortgage or other loan. Above 760 and you're in the upper echelon. A score below 620 tells people you're not a good risk and destines you for credit denial or subprime interest rates.

    What is a credit score?

    The three major credit-reporting agencies -- Equifax, Experian and TransUnion -- use software developed by Fair Isaac Corp. to rate your risk for assuming debt based on your credit history. The result is commonly known as a FICO score.

    The score is based on five factors, including payment history, the amounts you owe and the types of credit you've obtained. Personal information like income, occupation, age and marital status are not considered.

    The FICO score can range from 300 to 850, although very few reach that pinnacle. Each credit bureau may assign you a different score, based on the information it receives from creditors.

    You generally have to pay to get your credit score. You are legally entitled to one free credit report each year from each of the three credit reporting agencies. (See "How to get a free credit report.")

    • To watch for errors and identity theft, stagger your requests and get a report from a different bureau every four months.
    • Go to AnnualCreditreport.com to order a free report. Make sure you access the right Web site. Impostor Web sites abound.

    Want to improve your score and keep it high? Think of credit as a privilege to be used sparingly.

    • Don't apply for lots of credit cards. A credit inquiry can deduct five points from your credit score. However, multiple checks made when you're shopping for a mortgage will count as only one.
    • Asking for your personal report won't hurt your score. Neither will requests made by credit card companies that offer preapproved cards, or requests by prospective employers.
    • Avoid applying for credit cards from companies that don't set a spending limit or won't report your limit to the credit bureaus. (See "Weird stuff that hurts your credit.")
    • Don't cancel multiple credit cards. That can suddenly lower your available credit and can hurt your credit score. Keep old accounts open to ensure a long credit history.
    • Limit the percentage of available credit you use to no more than 30%, even if you pay off your balance each month. Your credit report will show the amount you owed, even if you subsequently paid in full, and excessive spending will ding your score.
    • If you don't have a credit history, start one by obtaining a secured credit card and managing it responsibly. (See "9 ways to build a killer credit score.")

    It pays to pay on time

    The No. 1 way to raise your credit score? Pay all of your obligations on time. Your payment history constitutes 35% of your credit score.

    • That includes library fines and parking tickets. Municipalities are more aggressive about turning over delinquent accounts to collection agencies, which will drag down your score. (See "Now bounced checks can trash your credit.")
    • One late payment reported to a credit bureau can drop your score by 100 points, particularly if you had a high score.
    • Late payments can remain on your credit report for seven years. Bankruptcies appear for 10 years.
    • Consulting a credit counseling service to manage excessive debt will not damage your credit score.

    If you find an error in your credit report, ask the creditor to correct it, then notify the credit bureau by sending a certified letter and copies of documents that support your claim.

    • If the error isn't fixed, the bureau must identify the person who investigated your claim, and you can request a second report.
    • If the error is corrected, the bureau must send you a copy of your new report and, at your request, a copy to everyone who obtained your credit report within the previous six months.
    • If it's not corrected, you can include a statement in your credit report.
    • Faced with a faulty credit report when you're about to obtain a mortgage? Mortgage companies can engage a rapid rescoring service to correct errors within days.
    • Paying a service to monitor your credit is not worth the fee, unless you've been the victim of identity theft and have reason to believe you're still at risk.

    If you've got a hint we haven't included or find a factual error, let us know by sending an e-mail to Five.minute@hotmail.com.


    Your 5-minute guide to home loans

    These 18 tips can help cut the stress of taking out a mortgage -- and get you into a house you can afford.

    By MSN Money staff

    What's the best way to pay for the biggest purchase you'll likely ever make?

    You can be sure of two things: Many lenders will offer far more money than you can truly afford to repay, and the fine print can have life-changing consequences.

    • First, visit MSN Money's Home Affordability Calculator, which considers your income and debts, even your credit, before figuring out the maximum amount you should borrow. It may not be as much as some banks will lend you, but it should be within your means to repay.

    Once you've got an idea of how much you can afford to borrow:

    • Get preapproved for a mortgage. Unlike "prequalifying," preapproval means you have a loan lined up, which makes your offer more attractive to sellers. You don't have to accept a loan from a company that preapproves it.
    • If you suspect interest rates are going to rise before you close, pay to lock your rate in place.
    • Consider buying discount points to reduce your interest rate only if you plan to be in the house long enough to recoup that money and then some.
    • If you're a first-time homebuyer or are low-income, look for financing through your local or state board of housing. The federal Department of Veterans Affairs offers help for military personnel and veterans.

    Dozens of mortgage products are available. You have to decide which one best fits your spending plans. (See "Which mortgage is best for you?") Consider these:

    • 30-year fixed rate. Compared with an adjustable-rate mortgage, or ARM, you'll pay a slightly higher interest rate but have the comfort of knowing it won't change over the life of the loan. Consider a 15-year mortgage to save thousands in interest if you can afford a higher monthly payment.
    • ARM. Sometimes known as "hybrid" loans, ARMs offer a low fixed rate of interest at the beginning of the loan, followed by rate adjustments that are tied to an index. For instance, a 5/1 loan has a fixed rate in the first five years and a rate that's adjusted every year after that. These mortgages may work well for people who plan to move or refinance their homes with a fixed-rate mortgage before the interest begins to ratchet up. (See "How to deal with a rising home payment.")
    • Option ARM. You can pay the full interest and principal due each month or just the interest, or make a partial interest payment. The third option is particularly hazardous because the unpaid interest will be added to the principal you owe. (See "Ouch! Your house payment just doubled.")
    • Interest only. You pay only interest for the first five years or so and both interest and principal in the remaining 25 years. Another version is the interest-only fixed-rate mortgage. Like ARMs, you'll end up with substantially higher monthly payments unless you sell or refinance your home. If your income can support only the interest payment, rather than principal and interest, you should not be buying a home.

    With so many types of mortgages to choose from, it's essential to understand the terms of the loan before you sign:

    • Will the interest on your ARM be adjusted every year, every six months or every month?
    • Is there a cap on the interest? Does the cap apply to the first adjustment or only to subsequent adjustments? Is there a cap on your payments, which could cause your obligation to soar?
    • Watch out for prepayment penalties and balloon payments.

    Private mortgage insurance, known as PMI, can cost hundreds of dollars a month.

    • You can avoid having to buy private mortgage insurance (which protects the lender, not you) by putting down at least 20% on your home.
    • You could also take out what's known as a piggyback loan. Your primary loan would cover the first 80% of the value of your house. A piggyback loan is a second mortgage that would cover the remainder, usually at a much higher interest rate.
    • If you have to buy private mortgage insurance, ask to have it canceled when you've reduced your loan balance to 80% of your home's appraised value. Once you've reduced your loan balance to 78%, the lender must cancel your PMI unless you're considered a credit risk.

    If you already have a mortgage, you may be tempted to refinance when interest rates drop. (See an estimate of your growing home equity here.) Don't make a decision based simply on the availability of lower rates. Would you actually pay less when you figure in the closing costs?

    If you've got a hint we haven't included or find a factual error, let us know by sending an e-mail to Five.minute@hotmail.com.


    Bank Products
    What's Insured and What's Not

    Brochure cover art

    In their search for higher returns, many customers of banks and credit unions are looking beyond traditional savings accounts to investment products such as mutual funds and annuities. Mutual funds and annuities have their advantages, but it's important to understand how they work and what risks are involved.

    Download and Print PDF Version (133KB)

    Order this publication.

    Personal Financial Education

    Deposits vs. Investments

    Any money you have in savings and checking accounts or in certificates of deposit (CDs) is known as a deposit. Your financial institution is committed to returning all of your deposits (plus interest) whenever you ask. You can even take money out of a CD before it matures, however, you will have to pay a penalty for early withdrawal.

    Your institution is also required to carry government insurance on your deposits up to $100,000. The insurer is usually the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). Contact your financial institution if you have specific questions about your insured deposits.

    Financial institutions can also provide investment products like mutual funds and annuities to their customers. Your bank or credit union may sell you this type of product, but it is not obligated to pay you back for any losses you may have if the investment is not successful.

    Insured
    Not Insured
    Statement Savings Accounts Mutual Funds
    Passbook Savings Accounts Annuities

    Money Market Deposit Accounts (MMDAs)

     
    Holiday Savings Accounts 
    Regular Checking Accounts 
    NOW Accounts 
    Certificates of Deposits (CDs) 

    Equally important, the U.S. government does not insure you against investment losses, even if you purchased the product at a bank or credit union.

    Investing in a Mutual Fund

    When you invest in a mutual fund, your money is put together with the money of other investors and is used to purchase a variety of securities such as stocks, bonds, and other financial instruments.

    Mutual funds are run by investment professionals who decide which investments to buy or sell for the fund. Their decisions are guided by the fund's investment goals.

    For example, some mutual funds are designed for people who want to have easy access to their money and invest only for a short time. These funds invest primarily in government securities or very short-term bank CDs, where the investment risks are moderate.

    Other mutual funds appeal to people who are willing to take on more risk with the goal of a higher return. Such funds invest primarily in corporate or municipal bonds.

    Most mutual funds, however, are more diverse, offering a mix of investments. A typical fund portfolio includes between 30 and 300 different stocks, bonds, and other instruments.

    Under the law, any institution selling you shares in a mutual fund or annuity must inform you that:

    • Mutual funds and annuities are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) or guaranteed by the bank or credit union that sells them.
    • Mutual funds and annuities involve an investment risk, including the possibility of lost principal.

    Federal regulations also require that:

    • Your bank or credit union must tell you if it serves the fund in an advisory capacity.
    • Banks that sell mutual funds or annuities must clearly distinguish between regular bank teller windows and mutual fund or annuity sales windows.
    • Employees who accept regular deposits are not allowed to offer investment advice.

    Investing in an Annuity

    When you buy an annuity, the bank or insurance company invests your money and agrees to pay you back according to the annuity's contract terms. The annuity can be part of a long-term savings plan for retirement. Like mutual funds, they are not insured by the U.S. government or by the bank where you buy them.

    Some annuities help you set aside money on a tax-deferred basis. You don't pay taxes on the income earned by this money until you retire. Other annuities allow you to receive income immediately. However, the amount of income you will receive can go up or down with changes in financial markets and the income won't be tax deferred.

    With annuities, the annuity contract spells out the terms of your agreement. It will tell you whether or not you can transfer your contract to another company. Also, surrender charges or penalties apply when funds are withdrawn before a designated period of time has passed. Surrender charges can apply from five to ten years or more. You may want to consider meeting with a qualified tax advisor or financial planner to learn more about annuities.

    Buying through Your Institution

     

    Consumers should
    be aware that
    every product sold
    by a bank or credit union
    is
    not automatically insured
    by the U.S. government.


    Not all banks and credit unions sell investment products, but many do. Some simply rent lobby space to outside companies. Other institutions sell what are called proprietary funds, which are sponsored by an outside company but receive investment advice from the institution itself. Private label funds, meanwhile, are sponsored and managed through an outside company but are only sold through one bank or credit union.

    Some mutual funds and annuities have names that sound very much like names of financial institutions. But no mutual funds or annuities are insured by either your institution or the U.S. government. As an investor, you should be aware that these funds have different degrees of risk and could possibly lead to a loss of some or all of your principal.

     

     

    For More Information

     

    The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco has several other consumer brochures. These brochures are posted on our web site at: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/consumer.

    Learn about . . .

    Questions or comments about these brochures can be sent to:

    Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
    Public Information - Publications
    P.O. Box 7702, MS 1110
    San Francisco, CA 94120-7702

    (415) 974-2163 or
    e-mail us at: Pubs SF
     

    The Consumer Information Center provides hundreds of federal consumer publications, including Deposits and Investments: There's A Critical Difference, prepared by the Comptroller of the Currency, and Staying Independent: Planning for Financial Independence in Later Life. To order these titles or request a Consumer Information Catalog, contact:

    Consumer Information Center
    Pueblo, CO 81009
    http://www.pueblo.gsa.gov
    (888) 878-3256

    For information on mutual funds, contact the Investment Company Institute. They also publish a Directory of Mutual Funds that lists general information about mutual funds.

    Investment Company Institute
    P.O. Box 66140
    Washington, D.C. 20035-6140
    http://www.ici.org
    (202) 326-5800

    For information on annuity investments, contact the National Association for Variable Annuities (NAVA).

    National Association for Variable Annuities
    11710 Plaza America Drive, Suite 100
    Reston, VA 20190
    http://www.navanet.org
    (703) 707-8830

     

    This overview was based on materials originally created by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.


    The Federal Reserve Board eagle logo links to home page

    Consumer Handbook on Adjustable-Rate Mortgages. Illustration of a home with an interest rate chart in the background.

    Mortgage Shopping Worksheet
    What Is an ARM?
    How ARMs Work: The Basic Features
    Types of ARMs
    Consumer Cautions
    Where to Get Information
    Glossary
    For More Information


    Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) are loans with interest rates that change. ARMs may start with lower monthly payments than fixed-rate mortgages, but keep the following in mind:

    You need to compare features of ARMs to find the one that best fits your needs. See the Mortgage Shopping Worksheet.

    This handbook explains how ARMs work and discusses some of the issues that borrowers may face. It includes ways to reduce the risks and gives some pointers about advertising and other ways you can get information from lenders and other trusted advisers. Important ARM terms are defined in a glossary. And the Mortgage Shopping Worksheet can help you ask the right questions and figure out whether an ARM is right for you. Ask lenders to help you fill out the worksheet so you can get the information you need to compare mortgages.

    What Is an ARM?

    An adjustable-rate mortgage differs from a fixed-rate mortgage in many ways. With a fixed-rate mortgage, the interest rate stays the same during the life of the loan. With an ARM, the interest rate changes periodically, usually in relation to an index, and payments may go up or down accordingly.

    Shopping for a mortgage is not as simple as it used to be. To compare two ARMs with each other or to compare an ARM with a fixed-rate mortgage, you need to know about indexes, margins, discounts, caps on rates and payments, negative amortization, payment options, and recasting (recalculating) your loan. You need to consider the maximum amount your monthly payment could increase. Most important, you need to know what might happen to your monthly mortgage payment in relation to your future ability to afford higher payments.

    Lenders generally charge lower initial interest rates for ARMs than for fixed-rate mortgages. At first, this makes the ARM easier on your pocketbook than a fixed-rate mortgage for the same loan amount. Moreover, your ARM could be less expensive over a long period than a fixed-rate mortgage--for example, if interest rates remain steady or move lower.

    Against these advantages, you have to weigh the risk that an increase in interest rates would lead to higher monthly payments in the future. It's a trade-off--you get a lower initial rate with an ARM in exchange for assuming more risk over the long run.

    Here are some questions you need to consider:

    • Is my income enough--or likely to rise enough--to cover higher mortgage payments if interest rates go up?
    • Will I be taking on other sizable debts, such as a loan for a car or school tuition, in the near future?
    • How long do I plan to own this home? (If you plan to sell soon, rising interest rates may not pose the problem they do if you plan to own the house for a long time.)
    • Do I plan to make any additional payments or pay the loan off early?

    Lenders and Brokers

    Mortgage loans are offered by many kinds of lenders--such as banks, mortgage companies, and credit unions. You can also get a loan through a mortgage broker. Brokers "arrange" loans; in other words, they find a lender for you. Brokers generally take your application and contact several lenders, but keep in mind that brokers are not required to find the best deal for you unless they have contracted with you to act as your agent.

    Back to top

    How ARMs Work: The Basic Features

    Initial rate and payment

    The initial rate and payment amount on an ARM will remain in effect for a limited period of time--ranging from just 1 month to 5 years or more. For some ARMs, the initial rate and payment can vary greatly from the rates and payments later in the loan term. Even if interest rates are stable, your rates and payments could change a lot. If lenders or brokers quote the initial rate and payment on a loan, ask them for the annual percentage rate (APR). If the APR is significantly higher than the initial rate, then it is likely that your rate and payments will be a lot higher when the loan adjusts, even if general interest rates remain the same.

    The adjustment period

    With most ARMs, the interest rate and monthly payment change every month, quarter, year, 3 years, or 5 years. The period between rate changes is called the adjustment period. For example, a loan with an adjustment period of 1 year is called a 1-year ARM, and the interest rate and payment can change once every year; a loan with a 3-year adjustment period is called a 3-year ARM.

    Loan Descriptions

    Lenders must give you written information on each type of ARM loan you are interested in. The information must include the terms and conditions for each loan, including information about the index and margin, how your rate will be calculated, how often your rate can change, limits on changes (or caps), an example of how high your monthly payment might go, and other ARM features such as negative amortization.

    The index

    The interest rate on an ARM is made up of two parts: the index and the margin. The index is a measure of interest rates generally, and the margin is an extra amount that the lender adds. Your payments will be affected by any caps, or limits, on how high or low your rate can go. If the index rate moves up, so does your interest rate in most circumstances, and you will probably have to make higher monthly payments. On the other hand, if the index rate goes down, your monthly payment could go down. Not all ARMs adjust downward, however--be sure to read the information for the loan you are considering.

    Lenders base ARM rates on a variety of indexes. Among the most common indexes are the rates on 1-year constant-maturity Treasury (CMT) securities, the Cost of Funds Index (COFI), and the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR). A few lenders use their own cost of funds as an index, rather than using other indexes. You should ask what index will be used, how it has fluctuated in the past, and where it is published--you can find a lot of this information in major newspapers and on the Internet.

    To help you get an idea of how to compare different indexes, the following chart shows a few common indexes over an 11-year period (1996-2006). As you can see, some index rates tend to be higher than others, and some change more often. But if a lender bases interest-rate adjustments on the average value of an index over time, your interest rate would not change as dramatically.

    Selected Index Rates for ARMs over an 11-Year Period - This graph shows interest rates from 1996 to 2006, including the one year London Interbank Offered Rate (from 6.2% in 1996 to 5.6% in 2006), the Eleventh District Cost of Funds Index (from 4.8% in 1996 to 4.2% in 2006), and the one year constant maturity treasury securities index (from 5.8% in 1996 to 5.2% in 2006).

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    The margin

    To determine the interest rate on an ARM, lenders add a few percentage points to the index rate, called the margin. The amount of the margin may differ from one lender to another, but it is usually constant over the life of the loan. The fully indexed rate is equal to the margin plus the index. If the initial rate on the loan is less than the fully indexed rate, it is called a discounted index rate. For example, if the lender uses an index that currently is 4% and adds a 3% margin, the fully indexed rate would be

      Index   4%
    + Margin   3%
         
    Fully indexed rate   7%

    If the index on this loan rose to 5%, the fully indexed rate would be 8% (5% + 3%). If the index fell to 2%, the fully indexed rate would be 5% (2% + 3%).

    Some lenders base the amount of the margin on your credit record--the better your credit, the lower the margin they add--and the lower the interest you will have to pay on your mortgage. In comparing ARMs, look at both the index and margin for each program.

    No-Doc/Low-Doc Loans

    When you apply for a loan, lenders usually require documents to prove that your income is high enough to repay the loan. For example, a lender might ask to see copies of your most recent pay stubs, income tax filings, and bank account statements. In a no-doc or low-doc loan, the lender doesn't require you to bring proof of your income, but you will usually have to pay a higher interest rate or extra fees to get the loan. Lenders generally charge more for no-doc/low-doc loans.

    Interest-rate caps

    An interest-rate cap places a limit on the amount your interest rate can increase. Interest caps come in two versions:

    • periodic adjustment caps, which limit the amount the interest rate can adjust up or down from one adjustment period to the next after the first adjustment, and
    • lifetime caps, which limit the interest-rate increase over the life of the loan. By law, virtually all ARMs must have a lifetime cap.

    Periodic adjustment caps

    Let's suppose you have an ARM with a periodic adjustment interest-rate cap of 2%. However, at the first adjustment, the index rate has risen 3%. The following example shows what happens.

    Examples in This Handbook

    All examples in this handbook are based on a $200,000 loan amount and a 30-year term. Payment amounts in the examples do not include taxes, insurance, condominium or home-owner association fees, or similar items. These amounts can be a significant part of your monthly payment.

    This graph shows 3 different mortgage payments for a $200,000 loan.  The first year’s monthly payment at 6 percent is $1,199.10.  The second year’s monthly payment at 9 percent, without a periodic adjustment cap, is $1,600.42.  The second year’s monthly payment at 8 percent, with a periodic adjustment cap, is $1,461.72.  The difference in the second year between the payment with the cap and the payment without the cap is $138.70 per month.

    In this example, because of the cap on your loan, your monthly payment in year 2 is $138.70 per month lower than it would be without the cap, saving you $1,664.40 over the year.

    Some ARMs allow a larger rate change at the first adjustment and then apply a periodic adjustment cap to all future adjustments.

    A drop in interest rates does not always lead to a drop in your monthly payments. With some ARMs that have interest-rate caps, the cap may hold your rate and payment below what it would have been if the change in the index rate had been fully applied. The increase in the interest that was not imposed because of the rate cap might carry over to future rate adjustments. This is called carryover. So at the next adjustment date, your payment might increase even though the index rate has stayed the same or declined.

    The following example shows how carryovers work. Suppose the index on your ARM increased 3% during the first year. Because this ARM limits rate increases to 2% at any one time, the rate is adjusted by only 2%, to 8% for the second year. However, the remaining 1% increase in the index carries over to the next time the lender can adjust rates. So when the lender adjusts the interest rate for the third year, the rate increases by 1%, to 9%, even if there is no change in the index during the second year.

    This graph shows 3 different mortgage payments for a $200,000 loan.  The first year’s monthly payment at 6 percent is $1,199.10.  If the index rises 3 percent to 9 percent, but there is a 2 percent rate cap that limits the interest to 8 percent, the second year’s payments would be $1,461.72.  If the index stays the same at 9 percent for the third year, the monthly payments in year 3 would be $1,597.84.

    In general, the rate on your loan can go up at any scheduled adjustment date when the lender's standard ARM rate (the index plus the margin) is higher than the rate you are paying before that adjustment.

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    Lifetime caps

    The next example shows how a lifetime rate cap would affect your loan. Let's say that your ARM starts out with a 6% rate and the loan has a 6% lifetime cap--that is, the rate can never exceed 12%. Suppose the index rate increases 1% in each of the next 9 years. With a 6% overall cap, your payment would never exceed $1,998.84--compared with the $2,409.11 that it would have reached in the tenth year without a cap.

    This graph shows 3 different mortgage payments for a $200,000 loan.  The first year's monthly payment at 6 percent is $1,199.10.  With a lifetime cap, if the interest rate rose one percent per year over the next 9 years, and reached the lifetime cap of 12 percent, in year 10 the monthly payments would be $1,998.84.  However, without a lifetime cap, if the interest rate rose one percent per year over the next 9 years, in year 10 the interest rate would be 15 percent and the monthly payments would be $2,409.11.

    Payment caps

    In addition to interest-rate caps, many ARMs--including payment-option ARMs--limit, or cap, the amount your monthly payment may increase at the time of each adjustment. For example, if your loan has a payment cap of 7½%, your monthly payment won't increase more than 7½% over your previous payment, even if interest rates rise more. For example, if your monthly payment in year 1 of your mortgage was $1,000, it could only go up to $1,075 in year 2 (7½% of $1,000 is an additional $75). Any interest you don't pay because of the payment cap will be added to the balance of your loan. A payment cap can limit the increase to your monthly payments but also can add to the amount you owe on the loan. (This is called negative amortization.)

    Let's assume that your rate changes in the first year by 2 percentage points but your payments can increase no more than 7½% in any one year. The following graph shows what your monthly payments would look like.

    This graph shows 3 different mortgage payments for a $200,000 loan.  The first year’s monthly payment at 6 percent is $1,199.10.  If the interest rate rose two percent to 8 percent in the second year but there was a seven and one-half percent payment cap, monthly payments in the second year would be $1,289.03.  If the interest rate rose two percent to 8 percent but there was no payment cap, monthly payments in the second year would be $1,461.72.  The difference in the monthly payments with and without the payment cap is $172.69.

    While your monthly payment will be only $1,289.03 for the second year, the difference of $172.69 each month will be added to the balance of your loan and will lead to negative amortization.

    Some ARMs with payment caps do not have periodic interest-rate caps. In addition, as explained below, most payment-option ARMs have a built-in recalculation period, usually every 5 years. At that point, your payment will be recalculated (lenders use the term recast) based on the remaining term of the loan. If you have a 30-year loan and you are at the end of year 5, your payment will be recalculated for the remaining 25 years. The payment cap does not apply to this adjustment. If your loan balance has increased, or if interest rates have risen faster than your payments, your payments could go up a lot.

    Back to top

    Types of ARMs

    Hybrid ARMs

    Hybrid ARMs often are advertised as 3/1 or 5/1 ARMs--you might also see ads for 7/1 or 10/1 ARMs. These loans are a mix--or a hybrid--of a fixed-rate period and an adjustable-rate period. The interest rate is fixed for the first few years of these loans--for example, for 5 years in a 5/1 ARM. After that, the rate may adjust annually (the 1 in the 5/1 example), until the loan is paid off. In the case of 3/1 or 5/1 ARMs

    • the first number tells you how long the fixed interest-rate period will be and
    • the second number tells you how often the rate will adjust after the initial period.

    You may also see ads for 2/28 or 3/27 ARMs--the first number tells you how long the fixed interest-rate period will be, and the second number tells you the number of years the rates on the loan will be adjustable. Some 2/28 and 3/27 mortgages adjust every 6 months, not annually.

    Interest-only ARMs

    An interest-only (I-O) ARM payment plan allows you to pay only the interest for a specified number of years, typically between 3 and 10 years. This allows you to have smaller monthly payments for a period of time. After that, your monthly payment will increase--even if interest rates stay the same--because you must start paying back the principal as well as the interest each month. For some I-O loans, the interest rate adjusts during the I-O period as well.

    For example, if you take out a 30-year mortgage loan with a 5-year I-O payment period, you can pay only interest for 5 years and then you must pay both the principal and interest over the next 25 years. Because you begin to pay back the principal, your payments increase after year 5, even if the rate stays the same. Keep in mind that the longer the I-O period, the higher your monthly payments will be after the I-O period ends.

    This graph shows 3 different mortgage payments for a $200,000 loan.  The first year’s monthly payment at 6 percent for an interest-only loan is $1,000.  The monthly payment in year 6 at 6 percent for principal and interest is $1,228.60.  The monthly payment in year 6 at 8 percent interest for principal and interest is $1,543.63.

    Payment-option ARMs

    A payment-option ARM is an adjustable-rate mortgage that allows you to choose among several payment options each month. The options typically include the following:

    • a traditional payment of principal and interest, which reduces the amount you owe on your mortgage. These payments are based on a set loan term, such as a 15-, 30-, or 40-year payment schedule.
    • an interest-only payment, which pays the interest but does not reduce the amount you owe on your mortgage as you make your payments.
    • a minimum (or limited) payment that may be less than the amount of interest due that month and may not reduce the amount you owe on your mortgage. If you choose this option, the amount of any interest you do not pay will be added to the principal of the loan, increasing the amount you owe and your future monthly payments, and increasing the amount of interest you will pay over the life of the loan. In addition, if you pay only the minimum payment in the last few years of the loan, you may owe a larger payment at the end of the loan term, called a balloon payment.

    The interest rate on a payment-option ARM is typically very low for the first few months (for example, 2% for the first 1 to 3 months). After that, the interest rate usually rises to a rate closer to that of other mortgage loans. Your payments during the first year are based on the initial low rate, meaning that if you only make the minimum payment each month, it will not reduce the amount you owe and it may not cover the interest due. The unpaid interest is added to the amount you owe on the mortgage, and your loan balance increases. This is called negative amortization. This means that even after making many payments, you could owe more than you did at the beginning of the loan. Also, as interest rates go up, your payments are likely to go up.

    Payment-option ARMs have a built-in recalculation period, usually every 5 years. At this point, your payment will be recalculated (lenders use the term recast) based on the remaining term of the loan. If you have a 30-year loan and you are at the end of year 5, your payment will be recalculated for the remaining 25 years. If your loan balance has increased because you have made only minimum payments, or if interest rates have risen faster than your payments, your payments will increase each time your loan is recast. At each recast, your new minimum payment will be a fully amortizing payment and any payment cap will not apply. This means that your monthly payment can increase a lot at each recast.

    Lenders may recalculate your loan payments before the recast period if the amount of principal you owe grows beyond a set limit, say 110% or 125% of your original mortgage amount. For example, suppose you made only minimum payments on your $200,000 mortgage and had any unpaid interest added to your balance. If the balance grew to $250,000 (125% of $200,000), your lender would recalculate your payments so that you would pay off the loan over the remaining term. It is likely that your payments would go up substantially.

    More information on interest-only and payment-option ARMs is available in the Federal Reserve Board's brochure titled Interest-Only Mortgage Payments and Payment-Option ARMs--Are They for You?

    Back to top

    Consumer Cautions

    Discounted interest rates

    Many lenders offer more than one type of ARM. Some lenders offer an ARM with an initial rate that is lower than their fully indexed ARM rate (that is, lower than the sum of the index plus the margin). Such rates--called discounted rates, start rates, or teaser rates--are often combined with large initial loan fees, sometimes called points, and with higher rates after the initial discounted rate expires.

    Your lender or broker may offer you a choice of loans that may include "discount points" or a "discount fee." You may choose to pay these points or fees in return for a lower interest rate. But keep in mind that the lower interest rate may only last until the first adjustment.

    If a lender offers you a loan with a discount rate, don't assume that means that the loan is a good one for you. You should carefully consider whether you will be able to afford higher payments in later years when the discount expires and the rate is adjusted.

    Here is an example of how a discounted initial rate might work. Let's assume that the lender's fully indexed one-year ARM rate (index rate plus margin) is currently 6%; the monthly payment for the first year would be $1,199.10. But your lender is offering an ARM with a discounted initial rate of 4% for the first year. With the 4% rate, your first-year's monthly payment would be $954.83.

    With a discounted ARM, your initial payment will probably remain at $954.83 for only a limited time--and any savings during the discount period may be offset by higher payments over the remaining life of the mortgage. If you are considering a discount ARM, be sure to compare future payments with those for a fully indexed ARM. In fact, if you buy a home or refinance using a deeply discounted initial rate, you run the risk of payment shock, negative amortization, or prepayment penalties or conversion fees.

    Payment shock

    Payment shock may occur if your mortgage payment rises sharply at a rate adjustment. Let's see what would happen in the second year if the rate on your discounted 4% ARM were to rise to the 6% fully indexed rate.

    This graph shows 3 different mortgage payments for a $200,000 loan.  The first year’s monthly payment at a discounted initial rate of 4 percent is $954.83.  If the interest rate rose two percent to 6 percent in the second year, monthly payments in the second year would be $1,192.63.  If the interest rate rose to 7 percent in the second year, monthly payments would be $1,320.59.

    As the example shows, even if the index rate were to stay the same, your monthly payment would go up from $954.83 to $1,192.63 in the second year.

    Suppose that the index rate increases 1% in one year and the ARM rate rises to 7%. Your payment in the second year would be $1,320.59.

    That's an increase of $365.76 in your monthly payment. You can see what might happen if you choose an ARM because of a low initial rate without considering whether you will be able to afford future payments.

    If you have an interest-only ARM, payment shock can also occur when the interest-only period ends. Or, if you have a payment-option ARM, payment shock can happen when the loan is recast.

    The following example compares several different loans over the first 7 years of their terms; the payments shown are for years 1, 6, and 7 of the mortgage, assuming you make interest-only payments or minimum payments. The main point is that, depending on the terms and conditions of your mortgage and changes in interest rates, ARM payments can change quite a bit over the life of the loan--so while you could save money in the first few years of an ARM, you could also face much higher payments in the future.

    The graph shows monthly payments for four different kinds of mortgages in years 1, 6, and 7 of the mortgage.  For a 30-year fixed rate mortgage, the monthly payment of $1,199.10 stays the same across all years.  For a five one A R M, the payments are $954.83 in year one, $1,165.51 in year 6, and $1,389.51 in year 7.  For a five one interest only A R M, the payments are $666.68 in year one, $1,288.60 in year 6 and $1,536.29 in year 7.  For a payment-option mortgage, the payments are $739.24 in year one, $1,603.10 in year 6, and $1,708.22 in year 7.

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    Negative amortization--When you owe more money than you borrowed

    Negative amortization means that the amount you owe increases even when you make all your required payments on time. It occurs whenever your monthly mortgage payments are not large enough to pay all of the interest due on your mortgage--the unpaid interest is added to the principal on your mortgage, and you will owe more than you originally borrowed. This can happen because you are making only minimum payments on a payment-option mortgage or because your loan has a payment cap.

    For example, suppose you have a $200,000, 30-year payment-option ARM with a 2% rate for the first 3 months and a 6% rate for the remaining 9 months of the year. Your minimum payment for the year is $739.24, as shown in the graph above. However, once the 6% rate is applied to your loan balance, you are no longer covering the interest costs. If you continue to make minimum payments on this loan, your loan balance at the end of the first year of your mortgage would be $201,118--or $1,118 more than you originally borrowed.

    Because payment caps limit only the amount of payment increases, and not interest-rate increases, payments sometimes do not cover all the interest due on your loan. This means that the unpaid interest is automatically added to your debt, and interest may be charged on that amount. You might owe the lender more later in the loan term than you did at the beginning.

    A payment cap limits the increase in your monthly payment by deferring some of the interest. Eventually, you would have to repay the higher remaining loan balance at the interest rate then in effect. When this happens, there may be a substantial increase in your monthly payment.

    Some mortgages include a cap on negative amortization. The cap typically limits the total amount you can owe to 110% to 125% of the original loan amount. When you reach that point, the lender will set the monthly payment amounts to fully repay the loan over the remaining term. Your payment cap will not apply, and your payments could be substantially higher. You may limit negative amortization by voluntarily increasing your monthly payment.

    Be sure you know whether the ARM you are considering can have negative amortization.

    Home Prices, Home Equity, and ARMs

    Sometimes home prices rise rapidly, allowing people to quickly build equity in their homes. This can make some people think that even if the rate and payments on their ARM get too high, they can avoid those higher payments by refinancing their loan or, in the worst case, selling their home. It's important to remember that home prices do not always go up quickly--they may increase a little or remain the same, and sometimes they fall. If housing prices fall, your home may not be worth as much as you owe on the mortgage. Also, you may find it difficult to refinance your loan to get a lower monthly payment or rate. Even if home prices stay the same, if your loan lets you make minimum payments (see payment-option ARMs), you may owe your lender more on your mortgage than you could get from selling your home.


    Prepayment penalties and conversion

    If you get an ARM, you may decide later that you don't want to risk any increases in the interest rate and payment amount. When you are considering an ARM, ask for information about any extra fees you would have to pay if you pay off the loan early by refinancing or selling your home, and whether you would be able to convert your ARM to a fixed-rate mortgage.

    Prepayment penalties

    Some ARMs, including interest-only and payment-option ARMs, may require you to pay special fees or penalties if you refinance or pay off the ARM early (usually within the first 3 to 5 years of the loan). Some loans have hard prepayment penalties, meaning that you will pay an extra fee or penalty if you pay off the loan during the penalty period for any reason (because you refinance or sell your home, for example). Other loans have soft prepayment penalties, meaning that you will pay an extra fee or penalty only if you refinance the loan, but you will not pay a penalty if you sell your home. Also, some loans may have prepayment penalties even if you make only a partial prepayment.

    Prepayment penalties can be several thousand dollars. For example, suppose you have a 3/1 ARM with an initial rate of 6%. At the end of year 2 you decide to refinance and pay off your original loan. At the time of refinancing, your balance is $194,936. If your loan has a prepayment penalty of 6 months' interest on the remaining balance, you would owe about $5,850.

    Sometimes there is a trade-off between having a prepayment penalty and having lower origination fees or lower interest rates. The lender may be willing to reduce or eliminate a prepayment penalty based on the amount you pay in loan fees or on the interest rate in the loan contract.

    If you have a hybrid ARM--such as a 2/28 or 3/27 ARM--be sure to compare the prepayment penalty period with the ARM's first adjustment period. For example, if you have a 2/28 ARM that has a rate and payment adjustment after the second year, but the prepayment penalty is in effect for the first 5 years of the loan, it may be costly to refinance when the first adjustment is made.

    Most mortgages let you make additional principal payments with your monthly payment. In most cases, this is not considered prepayment, and there usually is no penalty for these extra amounts. Check with your lender to make sure there is no penalty if you think you might want to make this type of additional principal prepayment.

    Conversion fees

    Your agreement with the lender may include a clause that lets you convert the ARM to a fixed-rate mortgage at designated times. When you convert, the new rate is generally set using a formula given in your loan documents.

    The interest rate or up-front fees may be somewhat higher for a convertible ARM. Also, a convertible ARM may require a fee at the time of conversion.

    Graduated-payment or stepped-rate loans

    Some fixed-rate loans start with one rate for one or two years and then change to another rate for the remaining term of the loan. While these are not ARMs, your payment will go up according to the terms of your contract. Talk with your lender or broker and read the information provided to you to make sure you understand when and by how much the payment will change.

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    Where to Get Information

    Disclosures from lenders

    You should receive information in writing about each ARM program you are interested in before you have paid a nonrefundable fee. It is important that you read this information and ask the lender or broker about anything you don't understand--index rates, margins, caps, and other ARM features such as negative amortization. After you have applied for a loan, you will get more information from the lender about your loan, including the APR, a payment schedule, and whether the loan has a prepayment penalty.

    The APR is the cost of your credit as a yearly rate. It takes into account interest, points paid on the loan, any fees paid to the lender for making the loan, and any mortgage insurance premiums you may have to pay. You can compare APRs on similar ARMs (for example, compare APRs on a 5/1 and a 3/1 ARM) to determine which loan will cost you less in the long term, but you should keep in mind that because the interest rate for an ARM can change, APRs on ARMs cannot be compared directly to APRs for fixed-rate mortgages.

    You may want to talk with financial advisers, housing counselors, and other trusted advisers. Contact a local housing counseling agency, call the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development toll-free at 800-569-4287, or visit online to find a center near you.

    Newspapers and the Internet

    When buying a home or refinancing your existing mortgage, remember to shop around. Compare costs and terms, and negotiate for the best deal. Your local newspaper and the Internet are good places to start shopping for a loan. You can usually find information on interest rates and points for several lenders. Since rates and points can change daily, you'll want to check information sources often when shopping for a home loan.

    The Mortgage Shopping Worksheet may also help you. Take it with you when you speak to each lender or broker and write down the information you obtain. Don't be afraid to make lenders and brokers compete with each other for your business by letting them know that you are shopping for the best deal.

    Advertisements

    Any initial information you receive about mortgages probably will come from advertisements or mail solicitations from builders, real estate brokers, mortgage brokers, and lenders. Although this information can be helpful, keep in mind that these are marketing materials--the ads and mailings are designed to make the mortgage look as attractive as possible. These ads may play up low initial interest rates and monthly payments, without emphasizing that those rates and payments could increase substantially later. So, get all the facts.

    Any ad for an ARM that shows an initial interest rate should also show how long the rate is in effect and the APR on the loan. If the APR is much higher than the initial rate, your payments may increase a lot after the introductory period, even if interest rates stay the same.

    Choosing a mortgage may be the most important financial decision you will make. You are entitled to have all the information you need to make the right decision. Don't hesitate to ask questions about ARM features when you talk to lenders, mortgage brokers, real estate agents, sellers, and your attorney, and keep asking until you get clear and complete answers.

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    Release Date: September 10, 2007

    For immediate release

     

    The Federal Reserve Board on Monday announced the appointment of D. Nathan Sheets as director of the Division of International Finance, effective September 23, 2007.

    The division supports the Board and the Federal Open Market Committee by providing information and analysis pertaining to economic and financial developments in foreign countries and the performance of the U.S. external sector.  In addition, the division’s director represents the Board at international meetings and in its contacts with foreign central banks.

    Sheets began his career at the Board in 1993 as an economist.  He became a section chief within the Division of International Finance in 1999 and was appointed to the official staff in 2001.  In 2006, he was promoted to deputy associate director with responsibility for the International Financial Transactions and the Trade and Quantitative Studies sections.  He is currently on detail to the International Monetary Fund where he serves as a senior adviser to the U.S. Executive Director.

    Sheets succeeds Karen H. Johnson, who has been named senior adviser to the Board.  Johnson announced in May that she will retire from the Board in February 2008.

    Sheets holds a bachelor’s degree from Brigham Young University and a PhD in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

     

     
    Last update: September 10, 2007

    Release Date: September 4, 2007

    For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT

    The Federal Reserve Board on Tuesday released the minutes of its discount rate
    meetings from July 9 through August 6, 2007.

    The minutes are attached.

    Attachment (8 KB PDF)


    Chairman Ben S. Bernanke

    At the Bundesbank Lecture, Berlin, Germany

    September 11, 2007

    Global Imbalances: Recent Developments and Prospects

    In a speech given in March 2005 (Bernanke, 2005), I discussed a number of important and interrelated developments in the global economy, including the substantial expansion of the current account deficit in the United States, the equally impressive rise in the current account surpluses of many emerging-market economies, and a worldwide decline in long-term real interest rates.  I argued that these developments could be explained, in part, by the emergence of a global saving glut, driven by the transformation of many emerging-market economies--notably, rapidly growing East Asian economies and oil-producing countries--from net borrowers to large net lenders on international capital markets.  Today I will review those developments and provide an update.  I will also consider policy implications and prospects for the future.

    A principal theme of my earlier remarks was that a satisfying explanation of the developments in the U.S. current account cannot focus on developments within the United States alone.  Rather, understanding these developments and evaluating potential policy responses require a global perspective.  I will continue to take that perspective in my remarks today and will emphasize in particular how changes in desired saving and investment in any given region, through their effects on global capital flows, may affect saving, investment, and the external balances of other countries around the world.

    The Origins of the Global Saving Glut, 1996-2004
    I will begin by reviewing the origins and development of the global saving glut over the period 1996-2004, as discussed in my earlier speech, and will then turn to more-recent developments.

    As is well known, the U.S. current account deficit expanded sharply in the latter part of the 1990s and the first half of the present decade.  In 1996, the U.S. deficit was $125 billion, or 1.6 percent of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP); by 2004, it had grown to $640 billion, or 5.5 percent of GDP.1  National income accounting identities imply that the current account deficit equals the excess of domestic investment in capital goods, including housing, over domestic saving, including the saving of households, firms, and governments.  The proximate cause of the increase in the U.S. external deficit was a decline in U.S. saving; between 1996 and 2004, the investment rate in the United States remained almost unchanged at about 19 percent of GDP, whereas the saving rate declined from 16-1/2 percent to slightly less than 14 percent of GDP.2  Domestic investment not funded by domestic saving must be financed by capital flows from abroad, and, indeed, the large increase in the U.S. current account deficit was matched by a similar expansion of net capital inflows.

    Globally, national current account deficits and surpluses must balance out, as deficit countries can raise funds in international capital markets only to the extent that other (surplus) countries provide those funds.  Accordingly, it is not surprising that the widening of the U.S. current account deficit has been associated with increased current account surpluses in the rest of the world. 

    What is surprising, however, in light of historical patterns, is that much of the increase in current account surpluses during this period took place in developing countries rather than in the industrial countries.3  The table shows current account balances for various countries and regions in selected years.  The aggregate current account balance of industrial countries other than the United States did increase between 1996 and 2004, by a bit less than $200 billion, much of that rise being accounted for by an increase in Japan's current account balance; the aggregate balance of the euro area rose only slightly.4  In comparison, the aggregate current account position of developing countries swung from a deficit of about $80 billion in 1996 to a surplus of roughly $300 billion in 2004, a net move toward surplus of $380 billion.

    In the aggregate, the shift from deficit to surplus in the current account of the emerging-market world over this period largely reflected increased saving as a share of output rather than a decline in the rate of capital investment.  However, changes in saving and investment patterns varied by countries and regions.  For example, in the countries of developing Asia excluding China, most of the $150 billion swing toward external surplus between 1996 and 2004 was attributable to declines in domestic investment.  In China, rates of both saving and investment rose, but saving rates rose more, leading to an increase in that country's current account surplus of about $60 billion.

    Outside of developing Asia, oil exporters in the Middle East and the former Soviet Union were also important contributors to the large increase in emerging-market current account balances.  The combined current accounts of the two regions increased from a surplus of $20 billion in 1996 to a surplus of $162 billion in 2004, an increase of about $140 billion.  This rise largely reflected higher saving rates, as domestic consumption fell behind the surge in oil revenuesAmong other emerging-market economies, higher saving also accounted for an increase in the aggregate current account balance of Latin America.  Of course, as emerging-market countries switched from being net borrowers to being net lenders, they began to pay down their international debts and to acquire assets of industrial countries.

    I have noted the expansion of the U.S. current account deficit and the associated increases in current account surpluses abroad over the 1996-2004 period.  A third key development in that period was a sustained decline in long-term real interest rates in many parts of the world.  For example, the real yield on ten-year inflation-indexed U.S. Treasury securities averaged about 4 percent in 1999 but less than 2 percent in 2004.  The difference between the nominal long-term Treasury yield and the trailing twelve-month rate of consumer price inflation, another measure of the U.S. real interest rate, showed a similar pattern, falling from about 3.5 percent in 1996 to about 1.5 percent in 2004.  Similar movements were observed in other industrial countries:  In the United Kingdom, the real yields on inflation-indexed government bonds fell from an average of 3.6 percent in 1996 to just below 2 percent in 2004; in Canada, the analogous figures were 4.6 percent in 1996 and 2.3 percent in 2004.  Real interest rates measured as the difference between government bond yields and consumer inflation also fell in Germany, Sweden, and Switzerland.  However, in Japan, real interest rates remained low throughout the period.

    In sum, considering the 1996-2004 period, we have three facts to explain:  (1) the substantial increase in the U.S. current account deficit, (2) the swing from moderate deficits to large surpluses in emerging-market countries, and (3) the significant decline in long-term real interest rates.  Many observers have focused on the expansion of the U.S. current account deficit in isolation and have argued that it is due largely to domestic factors, particularly declines in both public and private saving rates.  But accounting identities assure us that any movement in the current account must involve changes in realized saving rates relative to investment rates.  The question at issue, therefore, is whether the decline in the realized saving rate in the United States reflected a decline in desired saving or was instead a response to other, possibly external, economic developments.  Or, in textbook terms, did the fall in the realized saving rate in the United States reflect a shift in the demand for savings at any given interest rate (a shift in the saving schedule) or a decline in savings induced by a change in the interest rate (a movement along the saving schedule)? 

    In fact, there is no obvious reason why the desired saving rate in the United States should have fallen precipitously over the 1996-2004 period.5  Indeed, the federal budget deficit, an oft-cited source of the decline in U.S. saving, was actually in surplus during the 1998-2001 period even as the current account deficit was widening.  Moreover, a downward shift in the U.S. desired saving rate, all else being equal, should have led to greater pressure on economic resources and thus to increases, not decreases, in real interest rates.  As I will discuss later, from a normative viewpoint, we have good reasons to believe that the U.S. saving rate should be higher than it is.  Nonetheless, domestic factors alone do not seem to account for the large deterioration in the U.S. external balance.

    In my earlier speech, I put forth an alternative explanation that is consistent with each of the three basic facts I listed earlier.  That explanation takes as a key driving force a large increase in net desired saving (that is, desired saving less desired domestic investment) in emerging-market and oil-producing economies, a change that transformed these countries from modest net demanders to substantial net suppliers of funds to international capital markets.  This large increase in the net supply of financial capital from sources outside the industrial countries is what, in my earlier remarks, I called the global saving glut.

    To interpret the rise in net saving in emerging-market countries as causal, we need to identify factors in those countries that may have caused their desired saving to rise, or their desired investment to fall, or both.  In fact, several factors appear to have contributed to the increase in the supply of net saving from emerging-market countries.  First, the financial crises that hit many Asian economies in the 1990s led to significant declines in investment in those countries (in part because of reduced confidence in domestic financial institutions) and to changes in policies--including a resistance to currency appreciation, the determined accumulation of foreign exchange reserves, and fiscal consolidation--that had the effect of promoting current account surpluses.  Second, sharp increases in crude oil prices boosted oil exporters' incomes by more than those countries were able or willing to increase spending, thereby leading to higher saving and current account surpluses.  Finally, Chinese saving rates rose rapidly (by more even than investment rates); that rise in saving was, perhaps, a result of the strong growth in incomes in the midst of an underdeveloped financial sector and a weak social safety net that increases the motivation for precautionary saving.

    The combined effect of these developments, I argued, raised desired saving relative to desired investment in the emerging markets, which in turn led to current account surpluses in those countries.  But for the world as a whole, total saving must equal investment, and the sum of national current account balances must be zero.  Accordingly, in the industrial economies, realized saving rates had to fall relative to investment, and current account deficits had to emerge as counterparts to the developing countries' surpluses.  This adjustment could be achieved only by declines in real interest rates (as well as increases in asset prices), as we observed.  The effects were particularly large in the United States, perhaps because high productivity growth and deep capital markets in that country were particularly attractive to foreign capital.  The global saving glut hypothesis is thus consistent with the three key facts I noted earlier.

    To be sure, the global saving glut was not the only factor behind the decline in long-term real interest rates since the 1990s.  As I described in subsequent remarks (Bernanke, 2006), term premiums also declined during this period for reasons that are debated but may have included a perceived reduction in uncertainty regarding inflation and the real economy as well as increased demand for longer-term securities by various institutional investors, including pension funds and foreign central banks.  Changes in the global pattern of saving and investment surely played an important role in the decline in long-term rates, however.

    Recent Developments
    I turn now to a review of developments since I last spoke on these issues two and a half years ago.  In brief, external imbalances have become wider since 2004.  Both the geographical pattern of these imbalances and their sources in terms of saving and investment rates have changed a bit.  Nevertheless, the broad configuration that developed after 1996 still seems to be in place today.

    As the table shows, the U.S. current account deficit has widened further in the past two years, from $640 billion in 2004 (5.5 percent of GDP) to $812 billion in 2006 (6.2 percent of GDP), although it fell a bit in the first quarter of this year, to $770 billion at an annual rate.  In an accounting sense, the increase in the U.S. deficit over this period reflects primarily an increase in the investment rate from about 19 percent of GDP in 2004 to 20 percent of GDP in 2006.  The U.S. national saving rate did not change significantly over that period.

    Meanwhile, the aggregate current account surplus of emerging-market economies expanded about $350 billion, from $297 billion in 2004 to $643 billion in 2006; almost all the increase was attributable to a higher aggregate rate of saving.  A significant portion of this further growth is due to China, whose current account surplus swelled an additional $180 billion, rising from 3.6 percent of national output in 2004 to 9.4 percent in 2006.  The increase in the Chinese surplus can be attributed primarily to an increase in the saving rate between 2004 and 2006.  The increase in China's saving rate could, in part, be a consequence of the rapid pace of growth in the country.  That is, with income growing very rapidly, but with consumer credit not readily available and precautionary motives for saving remaining strong, consumption is failing to catch up.6  Also contributing to high saving rates was the authorities' decision to limit currency appreciation, thereby restraining import demand and boosting exports.

    Oil exporters have also contributed significantly to the recent increase in the aggregate current account balance of developing countries.  The combined current account balance of the countries of the Middle East and the former Soviet Union (which include a number of large oil exporters) rose about $150 billion between 2004 and 2006.  Again, the increase is almost entirely reflected in higher saving rates, as the oil exporters continue to save a large portion of the increased revenue resulting from higher oil prices. 

    In contrast to the situation in emerging markets, the aggregate current account surplus for industrial countries other than the United States declined recently, from almost $350 billion in 2004 to about $200 billion in 2006; most of the decline reflected a sharp drop in the euro-area balance.  Thus, unlike in the 1996-2004 period, industrial countries other than the United States have absorbed part of the increase in the net supply of capital coming from the emerging-market economies.  In aggregate, the recent decline in the current account balances of non-U.S. industrial economies reflects an increase in investment rates; saving rates have generally remained little changed.7  In short, in the emerging markets, realized saving and current account surpluses have increased since 2004.  In the industrial countries, over the same period, current accounts have moved further into deficit, primarily because of higher realized rates of investment.

    What about real interest rates?  Since I discussed these issues in March 2005, real interest rates have reversed some of their previous declines.  For example, in the United States, real yields on inflation-indexed government debt averaged 2.3 percent in 2006 as compared with 1.85 percent in 2004.  In the past few weeks, that yield has averaged about 2.4 percent.  Inflation-adjusted yields in other industrial countries have also started to move back up after falling in 2005.8      

    How does this all fit together?  My reading of recent developments is that although some of the details have changed, the fundamental elements of the global saving glut remain in place.  Most important, the emerging-market countries and oil producers remain large net suppliers of financial capital to global markets.  The mix of suppliers of funds and the factors motivating that supply have changed a bit:  China and the oil exporters account for a larger share of the developing countries' aggregate surplus, and developing Asia excluding China accounts for somewhat less.  Also, the further expansion of the region's net supply of saving in the past two years appears to reflect primarily an increase in desired saving by the emerging-market countries, whereas the previous increase in net saving also involved some decline in desired investment in East Asia after the financial crises of the 1990s.  Exchange rate policies in Asia have also influenced desired saving in that region.

    Further increases in net capital flows from the developing economies, all else being equal, should have further depressed real interest rates around the world.  But as I have noted, in the past few years, real interest rates have moved up a bit.  This increase does not imply that the global saving glut has dissipated.  However, it does suggest that, at the margin, desired investment net of desired saving must have risen in the industrial countries enough to offset any increase in desired saving by emerging-market countries.  This characterization is certainly consistent with the pickup in investment rates in the industrial countries, which I noted earlier, and it is also consistent, more generally, with the recovery of domestic demand growth in Europe, Japan, and other parts of the industrial world.  In summary, economic growth over the past few years, especially in industrial countries, has apparently been sufficient to increase the net demand for saving and thus to raise global real interest rates somewhat.

    Once again, however, I do not want to rely exclusively on this line of explanation for the behavior of long-term real interest rates, as other factors have no doubt been relevant.  In particular, term premiums appear recently to have risen from what may have been unsustainably low levels, in part because of the greater recent volatility in financial markets and investors' demands for increased compensation for risk-taking.

    Are Current Account Imbalances a Problem?
    This analysis of the sources of global imbalances does not address the critical normative question:  Are the current account imbalances that we see today a problem?  Not everyone would agree that they are, for several reasons. 

    First, these external imbalances are to a significant extent a market phenomenon and, in the case of the U.S. deficit, reflect the attractiveness of both the U.S. economy overall and the depth, liquidity, and legal safeguards associated with its capital markets.9  Of course, some foreign governments have intervened in foreign exchange markets and invested the proceeds in U.S. and other capital markets, which most likely has led to greater imbalances than would otherwise exist.  But the supply of capital from foreign governments is not as large as that from foreign private investors.  From 1998 through 2001, even as the U.S. current account deficit widened substantially, official capital flows into the United States were quite small.  During the years 2002 through 2006, net official capital inflows picked up substantially but still corresponded to less than half (47 percent) of the U.S. current account deficit over the period.  On a gross basis, during the same period, private foreign inflows were three times official capital flows.10  Moreover, even public investors are motivated to some extent by the attractions of the U.S. economy and U.S. capital markets.

    Second, current account imbalances can help reduce tendencies toward recession, on the one hand, or overheating and inflation, on the other.11  During the late 1990s, for example, the developing Asian economies that had experienced financial crises and consequent collapses in domestic investment benefited from being able to run trade surpluses, which helped strengthen aggregate demand and employment.  During that same period, the trade deficits run by the United States allowed domestic demand to grow strongly without creating significant inflationary pressures.  Until a few years ago, the euro area was growing slowly and thus also benefited from running trade surpluses; more recently, as domestic demand in Europe has recovered, the trade surplus has declined.

    Third, although the U.S. current account deficit is certainly not sustainable at its current level, U.S. liabilities to foreigners are not, at this point, putting an exceptionally large burden on the American economy.  The net international investment position (NIIP) of the United States, although at a substantial negative 19 percent of GDP, is still smaller than the negative NIIP of several other industrial economies.  As a fraction of net household wealth, which totaled almost $56 trillion in 2006, the negative NIIP is even smaller--less than 5 percent.  Moreover, the U.S. investment income balance, which essentially represents the debt service on the NIIP, remains positive, at least for now.  Thus, even after years of current account deficits and corresponding increases in net liabilities, the United States continues to earn more on its foreign investments than it pays on its foreign liabilities.  And, as best we can tell, the share of U.S. assets in foreign portfolios does not seem excessive relative to the importance of the United States in the global economy.

    All that said, the current pattern of external imbalances--the export of capital from the developing countries to the industrial economies, particularly the United States--may prove counterproductive over the longer term.  I noted some reasons for concern in my earlier speech, and they remain relevant today.

    First, the United States and other industrial economies face the prospect of aging populations and of workforces that are growing more slowly.  These trends enhance the need to save (to support future retirees) and may reduce incentives to invest (because workforces eventually will shrink).  If the United States saved more, one likely outcome would be a reduction in the U.S. current account deficit and in the rate at which the country is adding to its liabilities to the rest of the world.

    Second, the large U.S. current account deficit cannot persist indefinitely because the ability of the United States to make debt service payments and the willingness of foreigners to hold U.S. assets in their portfolios are both limited.  Adjustment must eventually take place, and the process of adjustment will have both real and financial consequences.  For example, in the United States, the growth of export-oriented sectors such as manufacturing has been restrained by the shifts in relative prices and foreign demand associated with the U.S. trade deficit.  Ultimately, the necessary reduction in the trade and current account deficits will entail shifting resources out of sectors producing nontraded goods and services to those producing tradables.  The greater the needed adjustment, the more potentially disruptive and costly these shifts may be.  Similarly, external adjustment for China and other surplus countries will involve shifting resources out of the export sector and into industries geared toward meeting domestic consumption needs; that necessary shift, too, will likely be less disruptive if it occurs earlier and thus less rapidly and on a smaller scale. 

    On the financial side, if U.S. current account deficits were to persist at near their current levels, foreign investors would ultimately become satiated with dollar assets, and financing the deficit at a reasonable cost would become difficult.  Earlier reduction of global imbalances would reduce the potential strains associated with financing a large quantity of international liabilities and likely allow a smoother adjustment in financial markets.

    Finally, in the longer term, the developing world should be the recipient, not the provider, of financial capital.  Because developing countries tend to have high ratios of labor to capital and to be away from the technological frontier, the potential returns to investment in those countries are high.  Thus, capital flows toward those countries should benefit both them and the countries providing the capital.

    Prospects for Reducing External Imbalances
    What are the prospects for a gradual and orderly rebalancing of spending and external accounts around the world?  The brief answer is that signs of progress have appeared but that most countries have only just begun to undertake the policy changes that will ultimately be needed.

    Recently, the pickup in economic growth outside the United States, together with changes in the real exchange rate and other relative prices, has assisted the process of current account adjustment.  Notably, during 2006, foreign growth helped U.S. real exports of goods and services grow 9.3 percent, and exports of capital goods rose 10.8 percent.  Some of the gain in foreign growth is cyclical, but some is due to economic reforms (in both industrial and non-industrial countries) and thus may be more persistent.  Overall, we have seen some modest indications of improvement in the U.S. external balance recently.  For example, the non-oil trade deficit has declined modestly, from 3.7 percent of U.S. GDP in 2004 to 3.5 percent of GDP in 2006.  In addition, in 2006, net exports made a positive contribution to U.S. real GDP growth, the first year that had happened since 1995.  Net exports also contributed to U.S. growth in the first half of 2007.

    As is well known, however, further progress on the U.S. current account seems unlikely without significant increases in public and private saving in the United States.  The U.S. federal budget deficit has declined recently and is officially projected to improve further over the next few years.  Unfortunately, as I have noted, the United States has already reached the leading edge of major demographic changes that will result in an older population and a more slowly growing workforce.  A major effort to increase public and private saving is needed to prepare for the economic consequences of this demographic transition and to address external imbalances.

    As the global perspective makes clear, the reduction of the U.S. current account deficit also requires efforts on the part of the surplus countries to reduce the excess of their desired saving over desired investment.  Over the longer term, the current account surpluses of the emerging-market countries seem likely to narrow as domestic spending catches up with income.  Economic policies in these countries can assist this process.  For example, the oil exporters have collectively saved much of the windfall arising from higher crude prices in recent years; they should spend more in the future to develop and diversify their domestic economies.  China has officially recognized the need to increase its domestic spending and scale back its reliance on exports.  Measures that could help achieve these goals include further reforms of the financial sector; increased government spending on infrastructure, environmental improvement, and the social safety net; and currency appreciation.  In East Asia excluding China, continued efforts to strengthen and deepen the banking sector and financial markets would help domestic investment recover from the lingering effects of the financial crises of the 1990s.  In each of these cases, the indicated policies would reduce global imbalances.  Moreover, as with U.S. saving efforts, these actions would convey important economic benefits to the countries undertaking them even if current account balances were not an issue.

    What implications would a gradual rebalancing have for long-term real interest rates?  The logic of the global saving glut suggests that, as the glut dissipates over the next few decades and thereby reduces the net supply of financial capital from emerging-market countries, real interest rates should rise--a tendency that seems likely to be only partly offset by increased saving in the industrial countries.  However, factors other than the saving-investment balance affect long-term interest rates, including the relative supplies of, and demands for, long-term securities and changes in the required compensation for the risk embedded in term premiums.  Moreover, distant one-year forward interest rates remain low, an indication that markets currently do not expect much change in the global balance of desired saving and investment or that they expect the effects of such a change to be offset by other developments.  Accordingly, we are again reminded of the need to maintain appropriate humility in forecasting returns and asset prices.


    Current Account Balances
    (Billions of U.S. dollars)

    Country or region

    1996

    2000

    2004

    2005

    2006

    Industrial

    31.1

    -304.7

    -296.5

    -502.5

    -607.3

        United States

    -124.8

    -417.4

    -640.2

    -754.8

    -811.5

        Japan

    65.7

    119.6

    172.1

    165.7

    170.4

     

        Euro area 1

    77.3

    -37.0

    115.0

    22.2

    -11.1

            France

    23.4

    22.3

    10.5

    -19.5

    -28.3

            Germany

    -14.0

    -32.6

    118.0

    128.4

    146.4

            Italy

    36.8

    -6.2

    -15.5

    -28.4

    -41.6

            Spain

    -1.4

    -23.1

    -54.9

    -83.0

    -108.0

     

        Other

    12.9

    30.0

    56.6

    64.4

    45.0

            Australia

    -15.4

    -14.9

    -38.5

    -41.2

    -40.9

            Canada

    3.4

    19.7

    21.3

    26.3

    21.5

            Switzerland

    22.0

    30.7

    50.4

    61.4

    69.8

            United Kingdom

    -10.5

    -37.6

    -35.4

    -53.7

    -88.3

     

        Memo:
            Industrial excl.
            United States

    155.9

    112.7

    343.7

    252.3

    204.2

     

    Developing

    -82.8

    124.7

    296.5

    507.9

    643.2

        Asia

    -40.2

    77.0

    172.4

    245.1

    352.1

            China

    7.2

    20.5

    68.7

    160.8

    249.9

            Hong Kong

    -4.0

    7.0

    15.7

    20.3

    20.6

            Korea

    -23.1

    12.3

    28.2

    15.0

    6.1

            Taiwan

    10.9

    8.9

    18.5

    16.0

    24.7

            Thailand

    -14.4

    9.3

    2.8

    -7.9

    3.2

     

        Latin America

    -39.1

    -48.1

    20.4

    34.6

    48.7

            Argentina

    -6.8

    -9.0

    3.2

    3.5

    5.2

            Brazil

    -23.5

    -24.2

    11.7

    14.2

    13.6

            Mexico

    -2.5

    -18.7

    -6.7

    -4.9

    -1.5

     

        Middle East

    15.1

    72.1

    99.2

    189.0

    212.4

        Africa

    -5.2

    7.2

    0.6

    14.6

    19.9

        Eastern Europe

    -18.5

    -31.8

    -58.6

    -63.2

    -88.9

        Former Soviet Union

    5.2

    48.3

    62.6

    87.7

    99.0

     

        Memo:
            Developing Asia
            excl. China

    -47.4

    56.5

    103.7

    84.3

    102.2

     

    Statistical discrepancy

    -51.6

    -180.0

    0.0

    5.4

    35.9

    1. Calculated as the sum of the balances of the thirteen euro-area countries. Return to table

    Source: For the United States, Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.  For some countries other than the United States, national sources; for most countries, however, International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook Database Leaving the Board, April 2007 (www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2007/01/data/index.aspx); some values for 2006 are IMF estimates.


    References

    Bernanke, Ben S. (2005).  "The Global Saving Glut and the U.S. Current Account Deficit," speech delivered for the Sandridge Lecture at the Virginia Association of Economists, Richmond, March 10, www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2005/200503102/default.htm.  Similar remarks with updated data were presented for the Homer Jones Lecture, St. Louis, April 14, 2005, www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2005/20050414/default.htm. 

    ------------ (2006).  "Reflections on the Yield Curve and Monetary Policy," speech delivered at the Economic Club of New York, New York, March 20, www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20060320a.htm.

    Caballero, Ricardo J., Emmanuel Farhi, and Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (2006).  "An Equilibrium Model of 'Global Imbalances' and Low Interest Rates Leaving the Board," NBER Working Paper Series 11996.  Cambridge, Mass.:  National Bureau of Economic Research, January, www.nber.org/papers/w11996.pdf.

    Mendoza, Enrique G., Vincenzo Quadrini, and Jose-Victor Rios-Rull (2007).  "Financial Integration, Financial Deepness, and Global Imbalances Leaving the Board ," NBER Working Paper Series 12909.  Cambridge, Mass.:  National Bureau of Economic Research, February, www.nber.org/papers/w12909.pdf.


    Footnotes

    1. The shift was almost wholly attributable to a similar expansion of the trade deficit.  The balance on investment income actually improved over the period. Return to text

    2.  More precisely, investment grew from 19.0 percent to 19.3 percent of GDP, and saving declined from 16.5 percent to 13.8 percent of GDP, for a net change in investment less saving of 3.0 percent of GDP.  As implied by data noted earlier in this paragraph, the net change in the U.S. current account deficit over the same period was 3.9 percent of GDP.  In principle, the change in the excess of investment over saving and the change in the current account deficit should be the same.  The difference between the two figures is accounted for by statistical discrepancies, both within the national income and product accounts (NIPA) and between the balance of payments definitions and NIPA definitions of certain international transactions. Return to text

    3.  I am using the terms "emerging-market" and "developing" interchangeably. Return to text

    4.  As shown in the table, the surplus of industrial countries other than the United States increased from about $150 billion to nearly $350 billion over the period, and the Japanese external balance rose from $66 billion to $172 billion.  The increase in the Japanese current account balance as a share of GDP, from 1.4 percent to 3.7 percent, occurred despite a substantial fall in the GDP share of the saving rate, from 30.4 percent to 26.8 percent, as the GDP share of the investment rate fell even more dramatically, from 28.9 percent to 23.0 percent.  For the euro area as a whole, the current account balance remained at about 1 percent of GDP between 1996 and 2004, as aggregate investment and saving ratios remained largely unchanged.  Within the euro area, Germany's current account balance increased almost 5 percentage points of GDP--from -0.6 percent in 1996 to 4.3 percent in 2004--as saving moved up and investment decreased.  However, this development was offset by declines in the balances of some other euro-area countries, including France, Italy, and Spain; the decreases were mostly associated with higher investment rates.  Data on saving, investment, and current account balances for countries other than the United States are drawn primarily from the International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database Leaving the Board, April 2007 (www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2007/01/data/index.aspx); in some cases, data are drawn from national sources. Return to text

    5.  During the first part of the period, the rise in U.S. productivity and higher stock prices likely contributed to the U.S. current account deficit by increasing desired investment and reducing desired saving.  However, some of the increase in stock prices may have been the endogenous result of factors discussed later, and in any case the effects of the stock market on investment dissipated by 2004.  Finally, as noted in the text, if the driving force behind the changes in external balances was a decline in desired saving in the United States, world real interest rates would have risen rather than fallen. Return to text

    6.  The combined current account balance of developing Asia excluding China narrowed a bit as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2006, as the investment rate edged up while the saving rate was little changed.  Nevertheless, investment rates in this region still remain substantially below their 1996 levels. Return to text

    7.  The combined current account balance for the euro area moved from a surplus of $115 billion in 2004 to a deficit of about $10 billion in 2006, largely because of an increase in the aggregate investment rate.  Large declines in the balances of France, Italy, and Spain more than offset a higher surplus in the balance of Germany.  For the euro area as a whole, the movement into deficit has largely reflected an increase in the euro-area investment rate from about 20 percent of GDP in 2004 to about 21 percent of GDP in 2006.  Japan's current account surplus was almost unchanged at around $170 billion in both 2004 and 2006, as an increase in the rate of investment was matched by a higher saving rate. Return to text

    8.  Inflation-adjusted bonds in the United Kingdom had a yield of 2.19 percent, on average, in July 2007 as compared with a yield of 1.65 percent, on average, in July 2005.  In Canada, yields on inflation-adjusted bonds moved from 1.76 percent in July 2005 to 2.18 percent in July 2007.  Real interest rates, calculated as government bond yields minus twelve-month inflation rates, have also moved up since 2005 in Germany, Sweden, and Switzerland. Return to text

    9.  An interesting vein of recent research suggests that one of the reasons that developing countries seek to run current account surpluses is to finance the acquisition of high-quality assets they cannot produce in their own economies.  Refer to Caballero, Farhi, and Gourinchas (2006) and Mendoza, Quadrini, and Rios-Rull (2007).   Return to text

    10.  During 2002-06, gross foreign official inflows totaled $1,491 billion; net official inflows were only slightly less, as U.S. official outflows were negligible.  Private foreign inflows net of private U.S. outflows totaled $1,659 billion during the same period; gross foreign private inflows were $4,697 billion. Return to text

    11.  Another way to make this point is that current account balances and surpluses give countries the flexibility to spend more or less than their current output, as dictated by economic conditions and needs. Return to text

     

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    Last update: September 11, 2007

    Building Wealth

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    by The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

    A personal finance education resource for schools, nonprofit community organizations, financial services providers and consumers to help young people, adult consumers, families and others develop a plan for building personal wealth. Presents an overview of personal wealth-building strategies that includes setting financial goals, budgeting, saving and investing, managing debt, and understanding credit reports and credit scores.

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    The hidden costs of moving

    Not only is moving one of life’s most stressful and exhausting experiences, it can cost more than you ever imagined. Here's why.

    By Liz Pulliam Weston

    If forced to choose between childbirth and moving a household, I'd pick childbirth any day.

    Both can be deeply painful and expensive experiences. But on moving day, no one offers you an epidural. And labor tends to produce a wonderful result at the end, while moving just leaves you surrounded by boxes.

    There's another thing the two ordeals have in common: over time, the most excruciating details tend to fade from memory, which is why we're willing to do it more than once.

    With that in mind, I thought I'd remind veterans and terrify novices with some of the many hidden costs that accompany shifting from one household to the next. Given that it's prime moving season, some of these details might be helpful to know -- so you can avoid them, plan for them or use them as an excuse to stay put.

    The actual move
    You may think you're prepared for the big expense of hiring professional movers, or at least a rental truck. But that's just the beginning.

    Moving supplies. Unless a corporate fairy godmother is paying for your move, you'll need to worry about the costs of packing supplies -- boxes, tape, markers, paper, bubble wrap. Boxes alone can run $2 a pop and up, with the average eight-room house requiring more than 100 boxes.

    You can reduce the cost with a little footwork. Liquor stores and some grocery stores may have boxes to give away; if you start collecting a few weeks in advance, you can drastically reduce the number of boxes you need to buy. Also, check
    Craigslist and Freecycle.org for people who have recently moved to your community and have boxes and other supplies to give away (or to sell for less).

    By the way, it's customary to tip professional movers about $25 each, according to Realty Times. Feeding them isn't required, but pizza and sodas are usually appreciated (and all but required if you've dragooned friends into helping you).

    A potential silver lining: if your move is job-related and your new work site is at least 50 miles from your previous one, your expenses could be deductible. See "On the move? Watch for deductions."

    Insurance. If you're moving yourself, you may need to purchase insurance from the truck rental company, since your regular coverage (home and vehicle) might not apply. (Call your insurers and ask.) Professional movers are legally liable for your stuff, but their level of liability can vary. The cheapest, no-additional-fee option typically only pays you pennies per pound if your possessions are lost or damaged, so you may well want to pay for extra coverage.

    Moving special items. Certain big or expensive items--like pianos or cars--may require special handling, which means extra charges. Shipping a vehicle can easily add hundreds of dollars to your move, for example. Extraordinarily valuable items, like art collections or antiques, might not be covered under your mover's regular insurance--you may need to buy extra coverage or even hire special handlers. One MSN staffer paid $450 to move a grand piano from Seattle to Portland using specially-trained movers to pack and protect the instrument during transit.

    Getting hijacked by your mover. As I wrote in "Don't get scammed by your mover," complaints about moving companies have more than tripled in the decade since the federal government stopped regulating interstate moves. The most common tactic: Your movers take your stuff hostage and demand you pay them hundreds or even thousands of dollars more than the agreed-upon price.

    You can reduce your chances of getting hijacked by getting referrals from friends who have moved recently or asking large local employers which companies they use for executive relocations. Check with the Better Business Bureau and MovingScam.com about a company's complaint history.

    "In transit" costs. Longer-distance moves usually incur significant travel costs, such as gas, lodging and meals.

    If you're moving yourself, you may be stunned by how quickly your rental truck goes through gas. One poster on the Your Money message board estimated high and still wound up paying $300 more than expected. Ask the rental company for a gas-mileage estimate, then build in a fudge factor of at least 25%.

    Also remember that delays can happen on either end of a move, requiring you to cough up more than you expected on lodging, supplies or a storage facility to hold your stuff while you wait.

    These expenses don't necessarily end when you're ensconced in your new place. You may, for instance, find yourself eating out more for days or even weeks after the move as you deal with the strain of unpacking.

    Cancellation and late fees. If I was ever unsure about the advisability of automatic debits and online bill payment, those doubts were erased the last time we moved and the U.S. Postal Service forwarded our mail -- for weeks -- to a complete stranger in Newport Beach, Calif. (It took so long to straighten out because the venerable USPS argued that what was happening couldn't possibly be happening ah, bureaucracy.) If I'd been waiting for bills to arrive to trigger the payments, I would have racked up a host of late fees.

    If you can't bring yourself to automate the process, at least be sure to make a list of all your bills and their due dates. That way you can make payments on time even if your statements go awry. Also, check to make sure you give sufficient notice to utilities, phone providers, cable companies and other vendors so you don't incur cancellation fees.

    Getting set up again
    The nickeling-and-diming has just begun. Empty fridges, empty rooms, empty phone jacks and empty light sockets must all be filled.

    Deposits and connection fees. Utility, phone and television companies typically charge $50 to $100 each to establish service, depending on the provider and area; deposits also may be required. You may be able to get some of these waived if you have good credit or if the particular provider, like a cable company, is providing free installation deals. Be sure to ask.

    Re-keying the locks. This is a security essential. Who knows how many keys the previous occupant gave out? If you're renting, the landlord may have already taken care of this. Otherwise, you'll need to hire a locksmith to change the pins in your lock cylinders. It's cheaper than replacing the locks, but expect to spend $10 to $25 per lock.

    Filling the space. You may need to buy appliances, window treatments, lamps, rugs or more furniture to make your new space liveable. Then there are all the little piddling purchases that add up. The last time we moved, I was amazed at how many trips I made to Bed, Bath & Beyond for various hooks, racks, shelves and organizers .

    Stocking up. You didn't want to pay to move a dozen half-empty bottles of condiments, but now you have to replace them all -- and also buy