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June 2008 Entries

Economic Outlook

AEI's monthly newsletter on economic trends in the United States and abroad, written by Visiting Scholar John H. Makin.

 

AEI's Economic Outlook

2008

July - The Fed's Dilemma
June - False Dawn
May - Wealth Enhancement and Storage
April - Denial, Hope, and Panic
March - Japan's Lost Decade: Lessons for the United States in 2008
February - The Risk Cycle
January - Fine in 2009 (Not So Great in 2008)

2007

December - Why Do Financial Firms Take Too Much Risk?
November - One Fix Too Many
October - Global Rebalancing
September - The Music Stops
August - The Band Plays On
July - Why Interest Rates Are Rising
June - The Remarkable American Consumer
May - Weaker Capital Spending Cuts Growth Forecast
April - Recession in 2007?
March - Risk and Return in Subprime Mortgages
February - The Economy, Profits, and Stocks
January - The Wealth of Modern Nations

2006

December - Housing and American Recessions
November - U.S. Slowdown: Self-Correcting or Self-Reinforcing?
October - A Case for Inflation Targets in the United States and Japan
September - Soft Landing or Stagflation?
August - America's External Balances
July - Greenspan's Inflation Is Bernanke's Problem
June - Fed Uncertainty Means Market Uncertainty
May - China Needs to Float the Yuan--for China's Sake
April - What Is Tight Money?
March - Japan Gingerly Exits Deflation
February - Bond Market Bubble?
January - The Fed: Pulling on a Rubber Band

2005

December -
Why the Dollar Is Rising . . . Again
November - Japan Moves toward Sustainable Recovery
October - Can Disasters Be Good for Growth?
September - America's Resilient Consumers
August - Can the Fed Achieve a Goldilocks Tightening?
July - Europe's Struggling Currency Union
June - What Markets Are Saying
May - The Difficult Search for "Neutrality"
April - Greenspan's Second Bubble
March - Should Americans Save More?
February - Slower Growth
January - What Determines Interest Rates?

2004

December -
Time for More Currency Flexibility
November - Listen to the Markets
October - The Recovery: Three Years On
September - Oil and Stagflation
August - Normalization Means Higher Inflation
July - Japan Rising
June - China: The Unplannable, Planned Economy
May - Paradise Lost
April - America Demands; China Supplies
March - Watch Growth, Not Exchange Rates
February - The Opposite of Stagflation
January - As Good as It Gets

2003

December - "Animal Spirits" and Policy Stimulants
November - The World Economy after Dubai
October - A Sustainable U.S. Recovery?
September - Is Japan Recovering?
August - The Fed Abandons Bold Reflationary Measures
July - Threefold Stimulus Means Strong Growth
June - The Weaker Dollar Is Good News
May - Time to Target Inflation
April - Ill Winds
March - Greenspan Is Wrong
February - More Tax Cuts, Please
January - Gold and Deflation

2002

December - Time to Print Money
November - Don't Count Too Much on Central Banks
October - The Fed Didn't Cause the Stock Market Bubble
September - After Irrational Exuberance
August - Rational Saturninity
July - Japan's Choices
June - What's in Store for the Dollar?
May - Has the Recession Started Yet?
April - A Fiscal Boost Ends the Recession for Now
March - America's Bad News/Good News Syndrome
February - The U.S. Economy Still Needs Tax Cuts
January - Japan in Depression

2001

December - The Deflation Monster Still Lives
November - Don't Count on a V-shaped Recovery
October - Uncertainty
September - Is the Productivity Miracle Over?
August - Forget the Second-Half Recovery
July - Is the Fed "Trigger Happy?"
June - Japan Needs a Current Account Deficit
May - Why the Dollar is Strong
April - A Primer on Depressions
March - Recession Denial Will Prolong the Downturn
February - Japan's Lost Decade
January - America's Harder Hard Landing

2000

December - The "Double or Nothing" Market
November - Bubble Trouble
October - Oil: It Could Get Ugly
September - The Mythical Benefits of Debt Reduction
August - America's Dangerous "Slowdown"
July - Japan Battles the Paradox of Thrift
June - The Need to Fear a Hard Landing
May - America's Destabilizing Wealth Explosion
April - Japan: It's the Economy, Stupid!
March - The Fed Struggles To Balance Growth
February - The Present U.S. Expansion Outshines The 1960s Expansion
January - How The Bubble Bursts

1999

December - The Myth Of Clintonomics
November - Can Japan Grow?
October - What Should Central Banks Do?
September - Interest Rates
August - Tension Rising
July - 1999: A Year of Living Less Dangerously
June - The Fed Changes Gears
May - Can Japan Have A Golden Age?
April - The End of the Golden Age
March - The Dangerous Preference For Fixed Exchange Rates
February - What Next?
January - The Deflationary Fear Of Inflation

1998

December - The Fed's Miracle Cure
November - The Fed Confronts Financial Panic
October - Interference with Free Markets Causes Global Crisis
September - The Benefits Of Devaluation In A Deflationary World
August - Mr. Greenspan's Dilemma
July - Japan Joins The Crisis Week Club
June - What Ends the Party?
May - Asia's Crisis Is Not a Currency Crisis
April - The Case for More Pessimism
March - Can Goldilocks Survive?
February - Is the Asian Crisis Over?
January - The Painful Death of the Japanese Model

1997

December - Asian Deflation Threat Grows Ugly
November - Perils of Prosperity
October - Two New Paradigms
September - America Reflates While Asia Deflates
August - America Is a Developing Country
July - A Single Money for Europe?
June - International Exuberance
May - How High Will the Fed Push U.S. Interest Rates?
April - The Golden Age of Forecasting - by James K. Glassman
March -
Strong Dollar Overpowers Current Account, G-7
February - America's Amazing Self-regulating Economy
January - Central Bankers and Stock Markets

1996

December - Japan's Disastrous Keynesian Experiment
November - Weakness in European and Japanese Economies Extends U.S. Expansion
October - How Low Should Inflation Go?
September - Can America Grow Faster?
August - Watching Out for August
July - Is U.S. Economic Performance Too Good to Be True?
June - Balanced U.S. Growth: Extended Expansion, Stable Prices, and a Stronger Dollar
May - Is the Golden Age Over?
April - Should We Fear the Fear of Inflation?
March - Can the Soft Landing Last Forever?
February - Clouds on the U.S. Economic Horizon?
January - Is 1995 Another 1928?

1995

December - The U.S. Economy: Back to Pre-Great Society Health
November - World Economy Stalls
October - The Central Banks' Guns of August
September - Plaza Accord Redux
August - Central Banks Switch to Easy Money Contest
July - Ending the Central Bank's Tight Money Contest
June - Markets Celebrate U.S. Economic Slowdown
May - Is This the Golden Age?
April - The Fed's New Hemispheric Dollar Standard
March - Soft Landing: Soft Thinking
February - Pray for Slower U.S. Growth
January - Growth Surprises in 1994: Inflation Surprises in 1995


Mortgage Problems? Follow These Tips

Home owners who have doubts about the procedures and ethics of their mortgage servicing companies should follow these suggestions from Tara Twomey, a lawyer for the National Consumer Law Center:
  • Keep copies of all payment records and property insurance policies in case a dispute arises over how much you paid and when.
  • Contact your mortgage servicer immediately if financial troubles make it hard to pay the mortgage. Approaching the servicer right away makes it more likely they’ll cooperate with you
  • Read the loan documents carefully to make sure you’re not being billed for anything improper. If you discover an improper charge, write a letter to the mortgage servicer specifying exactly which charges you're contesting. By law, the servicer is required to respond within 60 business days.
  • Contact a lawyer who specializes in bankruptcy law before seeking bankruptcy-court protection.

Source: USA Today (06/26/08)

Solar Water Heaters Now Required in Hawaii

Hawaii is the first state to pass a law requiring that new homes have solar hot water heaters, beginning in 2010.

Hawaii relies totally on imported fossil fuels. This is a first step toward eliminating this dependence.

The new law prohibits issuing building permits for single-family homes that do not have solar water heaters. Some exceptions will be allowed, such as forested areas where there are low rates of sunshine.

Opponents say the law will drive up the cost of already pricey housing.

Source: The Associated Press, Jaymes Song (06/26/08)

Top Places to Buy an Old House

This Old House magazine, is forever on the hunt for the greatest old houses. In the July issue, the magazine identifies 12 neighborhoods nationwide that it considers the best old-house neighborhoods in the United States.

The winners were chosen because of their architectural diversity, the preservation momentum in the area, and neighborhood amenities, including walkability, services, and the level of community.

The magazine also identifies
dozens of other good neighborhoods.

Here are the magazine's top 12:
  • Centre Park Historic District, Reading, Pa.: five-bedroom townhouse can be purchased for about $60,000, a large Queen Anne for $135,000, and a mansion for less than $600,000.
  • Hampton Heights Historic District, Spartanburg, S.C.: homes range from $50,000 for a 1930s Arts and Crafts fixer-upper to $250,000 for a restored Queen Anne.
  • Galena, Illinois: a Greek Revival or Second Empire home can be bought for as little as $130,000.
  • Kempton's Corners, New Bedford, Mass.: prices run the range in this area, starting at $180,000 and then running as high as $800,000 for a Victorian.
  • Old Louisville, Ky.: a rehabbed manse might cost about $275,000, with prices topping out at $800,000.
  • Pleasant Ridge, Mich.: prices range from the low $100,000s for a modest bungalow to more than a million for a big Colonial Revival or Tudor.
  • Victorian Flatbush, Brooklyn, N.Y.: fixer-uppers are available for $600,000 to $900,000; a restored home will run you upward to a million or more.
  • Albany, Ore.: home prices in Albany's national historic districts range from $90,000 for a run-down Italianate to $400,000 for a fully restored one.
  • Georgetown, Texas: price tags on fixer-upper bungalows can be purchased for as little as $90,000; grander homes can run in the millions.
  • Centralia, Wash.: homes in the Edison District range from $250,000 for an 1,800-square-foot Craftsman to $600,000 for a massive Queen Anne.
  • New Castle, Del.: a brick Federal in good shape will run you $385,000, while large historic homes with river views cost close to a million.
  • Washington, Ga.: Antebellum mansions run as low as $350,000, while a 2,000-square-foot Victorian cottage might go for $130,000.

Source: This Old House online, by Keith Pandolfi, Allison Goldstein, Taryn Lonergan, and Melissa Thomas


News Release  
 
  June 27, 2008  
 
Fannie Mae Announces Dividend Rate for Preferred Stock Series P

WASHINGTON, DC -- Fannie Mae (FNM/NYSE) today announced a scheduled dividend rate for its Variable Rate Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series P ("Series P") of 4.50 percent per annum.

The dividend rate of 4.50 percent per annum for Series P will be in effect from and including June 30, 2008, to but excluding September 30, 2008. In accordance with the terms of the Series P Certificate of Designation, the dividend will continue to accrue at a per annum rate equal to the greater of (i) 4.50 percent and (ii) the sum of 3-Month LIBOR plus 0.75 percent.

Forty million (40,000,000) shares of Series P Preferred Stock at a stated value of $25.00 per share, or an aggregate stated value of $1 billion, were issued and are currently outstanding. Going forward, Fannie Mae will announce dividend changes to Series P when the dividend rate for the quarterly dividend period is greater than 4.500 percent.

Holders of record of Series P preferred shares will be entitled to quarterly dividends when and if declared by the Board of Directors of Fannie Mae.

For more information about our Series P preferred stock, interested parties should refer to the Certificate of Designation, which is available on Fannie Mae's Web site (www.fanniemae.com).

 

This press release does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy securities of Fannie Mae. Nothing in this press release constitutes advice on the merits of buying or selling a particular investment.

Fannie Mae is a shareholder-owned company with a public mission. We exist to expand affordable housing and bring global capital to local communities in order to serve the U.S. housing market. Fannie Mae has a federal charter and operates in America's secondary mortgage market to ensure that mortgage bankers and other lenders have enough funds to lend to home buyers at low rates. In 2008, we mark our 70th year of service to America's housing market. Our job is to help those who house America.

 
  Fannie Mae Resource Center Telephone 1-800-7FANNIE
(1-800-732-6643)
 

30-city real-estate outlook

Slow-motion sales in many housing markets have folks struggling for survival. Add the subprime crisis and talk of a recession, and you can expect another rough year for residential real estate.

By Lori Johnston, Bankrate.com

How bad is it? "There's not a market that's immune at this point," says Chris Porter, manager with John Burns Real Estate Consulting.

For a look at 30 top markets, Bankrate sought forecasts from those who follow trends in home sales and prices, as well as factors such as foreclosures and job growth.

All agree that existing home sales and housing starts will continue to decline in 2008. But opinions differ on when improvement in resales and new home sales will occur. (View the slide show of the top 30 cities)

Panel of experts
• Ken Fears, National Association of Realtors.

• Bernard Markstein, senior economist and director of forecasting, National Association of Home Builders.

• David Stiff, chief economist, Fiserv Lending Solutions.

• Chris Porter, manager, John Burns Real Estate Consulting.

• Ingo Winzer, president, Local Market Monitor.

Ups and downs
Stiff's United States forecast shows prices hitting bottom in the middle of 2009.

"Some prices don't start to bottom out until early 2010," he says. But in key markets where the rate of appreciation accelerated faster than household income growth — such as many cities in California and Florida, as well as Phoenix, Las Vegas and Washington, D.C. — he expects prices to drop by 20% or more.

Nationally, Fiserv projects a 13.1% decline in home prices from the third quarter of 2007 to the third quarter of 2008, with the numbers continuing to decrease the following year — by 2.8% from the third quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2009. The NAR forecasts that existing home sales will remain weak for all of 2008, with the worst happening in the middle, and improving slightly toward the end of the year, Fears says.

For all of 2008, existing-home sales are likely to total 5.39 million, and then rise 6.1 percent to 5.72 million next year, according to the latest NAR data.

"New home sales will be off sharply," Fears says. "That's good; that's not a bad thing for the market because all it does is reduce supply."

Housing starts are expected to hit bottom likely in the middle of the year, Markstein says. "We're the optimists," he adds.

The NAHB is forecasting a little more than 1 million housing starts — 719,000 single-family, 284,000 multifamily — this year. Last year, there were roughly 1.15 million starts, according to preliminary fourth-quarter data, compared with about 2.1 million during the peak in 2005, Markstein says.

Lower-priced homes are a prominent group under construction. They could be less than $150,000 in some markets or less than $350,000 in more expensive areas such as Washington, D.C., he says. Even with improvements in formerly hot markets, such as California, South Florida, Phoenix and Washington, D.C., they'll be the slowest to recover because of the supply.

"It's still going to be painful," Markstein says.

As for prices, despite widespread talk of declines, about half of the 150 metropolitan statistical areas actually witnessed rising home prices in the fourth quarter of 2007, according to the NAR. It expects existing home prices to decline 1.2% in 2008, reaching a median of $216,300. In 2009, the group expects median home prices to rise 3.2% to $223,200. John Burns Real Estate Consulting estimates that resale transactions will drop to about 3.8 million, compared with 4.9 million last year.

"We do think that sale volumes are going to be sort of the first to stabilize," Porter says. "Then (we'll) see stabilization in listings, followed by stabilized prices."

The number of new home sales is likely to decline 17.7% to 637,000 in 2008 before rising 7.6% to 685,000 in 2009, according to the NAR. The median new home price is expected to fall 4.3% to $236,300 in 2008, and then increase 5% in 2009.

Financial factors
The subprime crisis that set the industry back last year will continue to push progress back in 2008, says Porter. Fiserv's Stiff agrees that forecasts are more pessimistic than expected because things deteriorated so badly in the fourth quarter.

"We keep pushing out the point where prices hit the bottom because I think everybody underestimated how severe the mortgage crisis would be," he says. "Even if you wanted to buy, you either couldn't get financing or had to pay a much higher interest rate than in the past."

Compounding the problem are foreclosures, which rose 75%, to a record 2.2 million foreclosure filings on nearly 1.3 million properties in 2007, according to Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac. Eighty-six metropolitan areas reported increases from 2006, and the top 20 metro cities with the highest foreclosure rates were predominantly in California, Ohio, Florida and Michigan.

Porter says fourth-quarter 2007 data show that sellers are finally starting to come down and accept lower offers.

"They realize in order to sell their home, they have to give in a little bit on prices," he says.

But prices are not likely to bottom out in the resale market until 2010.

"(Sellers are) not willing to give up a lot of equity they think they have accumulated in their home over the last several years," Porter says.

Ingo Winzer, president of Massachusetts-based Local Market Monitor, agrees that in some markets, prices will fall for years to reach equilibrium.

"I think that we are in for several years of not necessarily a bad real-estate market, but let's say a much quieter market than we've had the last five years or so," he says.

Winzer's data compare actual home prices in the market with an index using factors such as local income to determine if a market is overpriced or undervalued.

"There's not going to be a quick snapback of demand and snapback in volume, and particularly there's not going to be the same kind of growth in prices that we've seen in so many markets in the last five years or so," he says. "I also believe there is a moderate chance that we're actually in a recession right now, and a recession that's driven by the fact that consumers don't have any money left."

As a result, Winzer says, folks will be spending less in the next few years, partly out of caution, because of the lack of credit, and partly because they think they don't have the financial assets, in terms of home value, behind them.

"It will keep a number of people out of the housing market and price increases relatively low, and it's going to last for a while," he says. Those double-digit increases won't happen again for another five to 10 years, depending on population growth, Winzer says.

Aiding that will be financing initiatives, including the decision by Congress in the economic stimulus package to increase maximum amounts of conforming loans in some markets. The association forecasts that higher loan limits will result in a rise in home sales and prices.

Also, the NAR says it expects 30-year fixed-rate mortgages to average 6.3% in 2009.

Another factor will be a rebound in the Federal Housing Administration market, which Fears says is more affected by helping borrowers stay in good standing, compared to subprime loans.

FHA rates also are about 3 percentage points less than those in the subprime market, which is an "incredible improvement in affordability," Fears says.

Top 30 areas as of May 2008

Metro Area Average 30-year fixed rate

2008 price forecast +/- in percentage

Overnight average

Albuquerque, N.M. 

4.5

5.97%

Atlanta 

-0.1

5.89%

Atlantic City, N.J. 

-20.3

6.04%

Bismarck, N.D.                   

2.1

6.21%

Birmingham, Ala. 

3.5

6.00%

Boise, Idaho 

-11.1

6.03%

Boston 

-6.3

5.96%

Cape Coral/Fort Myers, Fla. 

-17

5.84%

Charleston, S.C. 

0.2

5.90%

Cleveland 

-0.5

6.00%

Denver 

-9

5.92%

Detroit 

-9.9

6.01%

Honolulu 

-9

6.11%

Indianapolis 

2.3

5.95%

Las Vegas 

-23.3

6.08%

Little Rock, Ark. 

2.1

6.06%

Los Angeles 

-18.6

5.94%

Memphis, Tenn. 

1.1

5.91%

Miami/Fort Lauderdale, Fla. 

-21.6

5.85%

Minneapolis 

-4.9

5.93%

New Orleans 

2.4

6.17%

Raleigh, N.C

1.3

5.91%

Salt Lake City 

-7

6.02%

San Antonio 

2.5

5.92%

Seattle 

-3.9

5.97%

Stockton, Calif. 

-20.6

5.90%

Syracuse, N.Y. 

3.4

6.08%

Tucson, Ariz. 

-15.4

5.88%

Washington, D.C. 

-10.8

6.07%

Wichita, Kansas 

2.4

6.11%


Understanding Bankrate's averages

Note: The affordability ratings are part of John Burns' Housing Cycle Barometer, which calculates the ratio between housing costs for the median-priced existing home and income levels. They analyze 26-plus years of history in each metropolitan area, and compare the current ratios to the median ratios in each area. The down payment and mortgage payments are appropriately weighted based on total expenditures over the life of a typical home purchase. This methodology accurately determines which markets are overpriced and underpriced, even in an environment with historically low mortgage rates. The barometer ranges from 0 to 10, and is generally categorized as follows:

  • Significantly overpriced in comparison to history: 7.6 to 10.0
  • Overpriced in comparison to history: 5.0 to 7.5
  • Underpriced in comparison to history: 0.0 to 4.9

GEORGE CARLINISMS

In honor of George Carlin 

  • How come wrong numbers are never busy?
  • Do people in Australia call the rest of the world "up over"?
  • Does that screwdriver belong to Philip?
  • Can a stupid person be a smart-ass?
  • Does killing time damage eternity?
  • Why doesn't Tarzan have a beard?
  • Why is it called lipstick if you can still move your lips?
  • Why is it that night falls but day breaks?
  • Why is the third hand on the watch called a second hand?
  • Why is it that when you're driving and looking for an address, you turn down the volume on the radio?
  • Why is lemon juice made with artificial flavor, and dishwashing liquid made with real lemons?
  • Are part-time bandleaders semi-conductors?
  • Can you buy an entire chess set in a pawn shop?
  • Daylight savings time - why are they saving it and where do they keep it?
  • Did Noah keep his bees in archives?
  • Do jellyfish get gas from eating jellybeans?
  • Do pilots take crash-courses?
  • Do stars clean themselves with meteor showers?
  • Do you think that when they asked George Washington for ID that he just whipped out a quarter?
  • Have you ever imagined a world with no hypothetical situations?
  • Have you ever seen a toad on a toadstool?
  • How can there be self-help "groups"?
  • How do you get off a non-stop flight?
  • How do you write zero in Roman numerals?
  • How many weeks are there in a light year?
  • If a jogger runs at the speed of sound, can he still hear his Walkman?
  • If athletes get athlete's foot, do astronauts get mistletoe?
  • If Barbie's so popular, why do you have to buy all her friends?
  • If blind people wear dark glasses, why don't deaf people wear earmuffs?
  • If cats and dogs didn't have fur would we still pet them?
  • If peanut butter cookies are made from peanut butter, then what are Girl Scout cookies made out of?
  • If space is a vacuum, who changes the bags?
  • If swimming is good for your shape, then why do the whales look the way they do?
  • If tin whistles are made out of tin, what do they make fog horns out of?
  • If white wine goes with fish, do white grapes go with sushi?
  • If you can't drink and drive, why do bars have parking lots?
  • If you jog backwards, will you gain weight?
  • If you take an Oriental person and spin him around several times, does he become disoriented?
  • Why do the signs that say "Slow Children" have a picture of a running child?
  • Why do they call it "chili" if it's hot?
  • Why do we sing "Take me out to the ball game, when we are already there?
  • Why is the time of day with the slowest traffic called rush hour?


$5 Billion for Green Buildings

The Building Owners and Managers Association (BOMA) has partnered with the Clinton Climate Initiative to line up $5 billion in financing to provide one-stop shopping to make commercial buildings worldwide more energy efficient.

The Energy Performance Contract Model was unveiled at BOMA's annual meeting in Colorado this past week. The association and the Clinton Climate Initiative have reached agreements with five banks that will each make $1 billion in loans available to retrofit buildings with such amenities as energy-efficient chillers, computerized energy management systems, and solar and wind power.

"Building owners aren't going to do this for charity," says Arah Schuur, program manager for the Clinton Climate Initiative. The program entails each building owner obtaining a loan from the group to retrofit their structure.

The owner inks a deal for $90,000 with an energy service contractor, who guarantees annual energy savings of $100,000. If the saving goals are not achieved, the company has to write a check to the building owner to make up the difference. Tenants get the benefit of lower energy bills, while the owner can eventually sell the property for more money because of the state-of-the art equipment.

Source: Rocky Mountain News, John Rebchook (06/23/08)

Paulson Foresees Home Price Stability

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson predicted Tuesday that U.S. housing prices would stabilize by year's end and overall economic growth would improve by then.

In an interview on Mexican television, Paulson said the global economy was being strained by costly energy, but that overall the U.S. economic fundamentals are strong.

"I feel moderately optimistic that at the end of the year we will have signs of an economic recovery," Paulson said. "Hopefully the biggest part of the housing decline will be over by the end of the year."

Source: Reuters News, Lynn Adler (06/24/2008)


Here's your get-ready-to-retire checklist

Better grab a pencil and pad. Here's exactly what you need to do at each stage from 10 years before retirement to the Big R.

By Liz Pulliam Weston

George Dittenhoefer plans to retire next year. But the 58-year-old public finance consultant still has a lot of questions.

He and his wife, Leslie, eventually plan to move from Long Island, N.Y., to Nevada, but he's not sure when they'll leave. He thinks he knows how much income they'll need, but isn't sure their investments are up to the task. And Leslie, 54, is worried about covering their health-insurance costs in the years before they qualify for Medicare.

"I thought about calling a financial planner," said Dittenhoefer, "but I keep putting it off."

At least the Dittenhoefers have started to plan. Recent research by Fidelity, Putnam and the Employee Benefit Research Institute indicates most workers -- even those within a few years of retirement -- haven't tried to calculate their post-work expenses or created a plan to ensure they'll have enough income.

"Winging it" might have worked OK while you were employed, but ignorance or mistakes in retirement can cost you dearly. Retiring too soon, choosing the wrong investments, withdrawing too much money or failing to plan for health-care costs can all turn your golden years to brass.

We can't promise you'll avoid unpleasant surprises if you plan -- but you can probably reduce the odds. Here's a checklist to get you started. (As you get going, our Retirement Planner can help you make sure the numbers add up.)

10 years out

Think about where you'll live. Demographic surveys show most retirees "age in place," meaning they continue to live in the same house, or at least the same community, as when they retired. But downsizing or moving to a cheaper community can help your retirement assets last longer. Since where you live has a strong impact on your expenses, you'll want to consider your options carefully.

The Dittenhoefers, for example, have equity worth more than $225,000 in their Long Island home. If they sell and move to the Nevada condo they own, they could add that equity to the $350,000 already saved in their retirement kitty. If they stay put for a few years, by contrast, the Dittenhoefers would have to keep paying their mortgage and other home expenses -- a difference of $2,000 or more in their monthly costs.

Imagine what you'll do. Some people don't think about how they'll spend their time in retirement until they wake up jobless. That's a bad idea psychologically as well as financially.

Retirees who fare best are generally the ones who have absorbing interests to pursue, said Ralph Warner, the recently retired author of "Get a Life: You Don't Need a Million to Retire Well" (Nolo Press). Those who wait until retirement often find themselves casting about for something to do, and may discover that the hobby or pastime they thought they would love isn't quite so engaging when they can indulge it full-time. As Warner says, "There's only so much golf you can play."

Speaking of golf, your activities in retirement also influence how much money you'll need. If you want to play the finest courses or travel the world, you'll need to save more than if you like to play canasta and visit relatives.

Boost your retirement contributions. If you're not already taking full advantage of your 401(k), IRA and other retirement options, now's the time to increase your contributions. Use MSN Money's Plan your retirement section to see if you're on track, and try your calculations using different life expectancies. Your chances of making it to age 90 or beyond have never been better; many financial planners now use age 95 as their default life expectancy.

Consider paying down your mortgage. If you still have some cash left over after paying off your other debt and maximizing your retirement contributions, think about getting that mortgage retired before you do. Having the house paid off helps many retirees sleep better at night. Not having a mortgage also means you may have to draw less from your retirement accounts, allowing them to grow tax-deferred longer and reducing your overall tax bill.

Five years out

Cut your risk. You'll still need to have your portfolio tilted toward stocks, but you may want to ratchet back your exposure. Now is also the time, if you haven't done so already, to lighten up on company stocks and stock options. Consult with a CPA or other tax pro before you sell so you understand the tax implications.

Find out what income you can expect. Retirement experts often refer to the "three-legged stool" of post-work income, which is typically made up of Social Security payments, pensions from employers and your own savings:

  • Review your annual Social Security benefit statement or contact Social Security at 800-772-1213 for an estimate of your monthly check.

  • Contact current and former employers to see if you have any pensions accrued and, if so, how much you can expect to receive.

  • Calculate your income from investments.

The latter can be a bit tricky. The longer your expected retirement, the lower your initial withdrawal rate should be. You might not be able to tap more than 3% to 4% of your investments in your first year without dramatically increasing the risk you'll run out of money. You can use T. Rowe Price's retirement income calculator to see what withdrawal rates are likely to be sustainable. Think about health-care and long-term care expenses. Medical costs are spiraling, and you may not have enough coverage:

  • Medicare, the government program that covers most health-care costs for seniors, doesn't kick in until age 65. (Even then, some significant expenses aren't covered, so you'll want to investigate private Medi-Gap polices; you'll find more information from AARP.)

  • The number of employers who extend health-care coverage to their retirees is rapidly diminishing, and many of those that do are increasing their former workers' premiums or co-pays. If your employer offers the coverage now, it may not in the future or it may cost more, so have a Plan B. (Fidelity estimates a couple who retires at age 65 with no employer-provided health insurance would need $175,000 to pay for their medical costs in retirement.)

  • Medicare doesn't cover most nursing-home expenses, which means you may want to consider buying long-term care insurance.

Create a tentative budget. Now that you have an idea of your expected lifestyle and income, you can start to put together a budget that reflects those elements. (You can use MSN Money's Retirement Expense Calculator to get started.) You may well discover you'll need to work longer than you expected, or you could get some happy news and decide you want to accelerate your retirement plans. Before you do either, though:

Consider getting a second opinion. Should you apply for Social Security benefits early or opt for bigger payments later? Will you take a lump-sum pension or monthly checks? Will you need to tap your retirement funds when you quit work, and what's the best way to do so? You can, and should, educate yourself about these topics. (Books like Margaret Malaspina's "Cracking Your Retirement Nest Egg" can help). But planning for retirement is so complex, and the consequences of making a mistake so potentially severe, that it can be worth hiring an objective financial planner or tax pro to review your plan.

Two years out

Refine your plan. You're close enough now that you can refine your budget, tweak your asset allocation and get a clearer idea of how much income you can expect. If your plan no longer works, consider other options: working longer, moving somewhere cheaper, living on less.

 

Review your Social Security statements. Your Social Security check is based on your 35 highest-earning years, so you'll want to make sure your wages over the years have been reported properly. You'll want to repeat this review next year.

Take a vacation at your retirement destination. When people are contemplating moving after retirement, the standard advice is to take a few extended visits to the proposed destination in different seasons. The idea is to find out if you still like the place once you're more familiar with it.

You might take the same advice even if you don't plan to move. You may find your town has more to offer workers and families than seniors with time on their hands.

One year out

Put the finishing touches on your plan. Figure out what you're going to do with your 401(k) and other retirement accounts -- leave them where they are? Roll them over into an individual retirement account? Update your budget and review your asset allocation.

 

Run it past a pro. Even if you've managed your own investments until now, you'll still want a second opinion from an objective, experienced financial adviser. You can get referrals from The National Association of Personal Financial Advisors, the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants' Personal Financial Specialist division and the Garrett Planning Network, among others.

Three months out

Notify your employer. Most companies appreciate having more than two weeks' notice when a worker retires, and there may be pension-related paperwork that takes time to process.

 

Make arrangements for your rollover. Transferring money from a workplace retirement plan to an individual retirement account can take weeks, and sometimes months. If you'll be tapping that money soon, you'll want to put the process in motion.

If you're moving, start getting the house ready. If you've lived in your house awhile, you'll probably have some work to do before you can put it on the market. Pack up the clutter, perform any necessary repairs and consider cost-effective fixes to get the best price.

There are two other deadlines you need to know about that may or may not coincide with your retirement:

Apply for Social Security three months before you want your first check. You won't be eligible until age 62 at the earliest, so if you're retiring before then, make sure to note this important date on your calendar. You can apply for retirement benefits online here, or by calling the administration's toll-free number.

 

Sign up for Medicare three months before your 65th birthday. If you're already receiving Social Security checks, your enrollment will be automatic. Otherwise, you should enroll online or by phone with the Social Security Administration.

Liz Pulliam Weston's column appears every Monday and Thursday, exclusively on MSN Money. She also answers reader questions in the Your Money message board.


Why retirees are fleeing the U.S.

A move to another country may make economic sense, especially for seniors who don't have enough savings to live in retirement without a dramatic cut in lifestyle.

By Scott Burns

Several years ago a Dallas couple approaching retirement disappeared. Well-known on the charitable-event circuit, the couple were in Dallas one day and gone the next. Phone disconnected. No forwarding address. No working cell-phone number.

Eventually, word spread that they were somewhere in Mexico. They had sold whatever they owned, packed their car and headed for the border. They were, conflicting reports said, living in small towns, the kind of places seldom featured in travel magazines.

We can only speculate on what happened. I think they were broke, had little or nothing in savings and knew they had to make a major change to survive on their Social Security income and minimal savings. Like millions of other Americans, their ship never came in. They got older. Work became harder to find. Suddenly, they realized their life was entirely unsustainable. They were heading toward a cliff.

They had to do something radical. Like live in an RV. Or leave the country.

The question is: Can a move to another country offer a cost of living so much lower than the cost of living here that moving is a positive solution?

I believe the answer is yes. I also believe that thousands of older Americans will be crossing the border in the years to come.

To test the economic idea, I decided to use ESPlanner, the powerful financial-planning software I've used in other columns. I wanted to compare, in steps, what a couple could do by moving to Mexico. I wanted to see how much lower the cost of living abroad must be for a desperate idea to become a workable strategy.

So imagine this: You're 57. You're married. You make a reasonable but not glorious income of $75,000 a year. It isn't rising very fast. It may not rise much at all in the future. Indeed, you're wondering if management won't find a way to eliminate your job well before you turn 66. Worse, your entire nest egg is about $100,000 from the sale of your home several years earlier. It earns a safe 5.5%. Your wife doesn't work. The kids are grown.

Day after day, you have a dreadful feeling you are running toward a cliff. In fact, you are -- an income cliff.

Today, you are spending your entire $60,000 a year of after-tax income. You aren't saving. But if you are forced to retire at 62, your income will plummet. It won't be much more than your Social Security benefits -- about $18,000 for you and about $8,400 for your wife, a total of $26,400. (All figures are in dollars of constant purchasing power.)

That's a 56% reduction in your standard of living -- more than you can bear or imagine.

A better standard of living

Can you reduce the shock if you spend less today and save as much as possible, shooting for a level standard of living?

ESPlanner tells us yes. But with only five years to go, it won't help much. By saving about $30,000 a year and creating a bigger nest egg, you can increase your lifetime consumption from $26,400 a year to about $33,700 a year.

That's a hefty increase, but it would still feel like a crash. So, it's time to think about Mexico, Belize, Costa Rica or Panama.

Suppose you can find a place where the cost of living is about 75% of the cost in the United States -- some beach town north of Puerto Vallarta or south of Manzanillo. What happens to your standard of living when you move to Mexico? It rises to the equivalent of about $42,400 in the U.S.

That's not bad. But then you notice a problem: You'll be living in Mexico, where you can't get Medicare services, but you'll still be paying for Medicare. If your premiums rise at the historical rate -- 4.6% a year faster than inflation -- the $3,200 a year you'll pay out at 65 will rise to a stunning $9,400 a year by the time you are 90. It would be a big hit on your standard of living.

Maybe it's time to blow off Medicare. What happens to your standard of living if you don't sign up for Medicare at 65? It goes up to the equivalent of $47,200 a year. Of course, you'll still have medical expenses, but perhaps you can make a better, less-expensive arrangement.

Could you do still better? Yes. Just continue searching for a low-cost area. If you can find a place where the cost of living is 60% of the U.S. cost, your lifetime standard of living, without Medicare expenses, will be the equivalent of $55,500 -- very close to the $60,000 you got to spend while working in America.

Questions about personal finance and investments may be e-mailed to scott@scottburns.com.

Questions of general interest may be answered in future columns.

More columns by Scott Burns can be found here and here.


Interest Rates Are Likely to Hold Steady

The Federal Reserve, which opens a two-day meeting today, is expected to leave its key interest rate unchanged at 2 percent when it wraps up the session on Wednesday.

Mortgage rates are somewhat affected by this short-term rate, but are more closely tied to long-term U.S. Treasury rates and other concerns. Recent increases in mortgage rates have slowed the problem-plagued housing market and fueled inflation.

So what's the Fed to do?

"Tread lightly on rates and carry a big rhetorical anti-inflation stick," says Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics.

Economists predict the Fed's policy statement, expected to be released Wednesday, probably will highlight inflation risks but won't go as far as to signal a rate increase at the Fed's next meeting Aug. 5.

Source: The Associated Press (06/24/2008)

Press Release

Federal Reserve Press Release

Release Date: June 23, 2008

For immediate release

The Federal Reserve Board announced today that it is s